Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
551 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- First 100-degree heat forecast across far southwest Kansas
tomorrow. (50-60% probability of exceedance 100+ degrees for
Liberal, Elkhart, Johnson, Hugoton, Ulysses)
- Scattered early Friday morning showers and thunderstorms
mainly between Ark River and Oklahoma line, followed by
another chance of storms later in the afternoon and Friday
Night. Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of severe weather
- Increased likelihood of large thunderstorm system Saturday
Night with POPs increased to 60% for much of the southwest
Kansas region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024
This afternoon, water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed a broad
ridge of high pressure extending across much of the western and
central CONUS, which was allowing temperatures to really heat up
across the Southwest and into New Mexico. Roswell, NM was baking in
104F heat as of 1950Z. This heat will make a run on much of our
forecast area tomorrow. In the meantime, a cold front passage
earlier this morning kept our temperatures at bay across southwest
Kansas, but mid to upper 80s were observed from the Ark River south
to the Oklahoma line.
The front to our south will stall out and return north as a warm
from tonight/early Friday morning. The frontal zone in the 800-700mb
layer will likely provide enough upward vertical motion due to
increased warm frontogenesis in the 09-15Z time frame. The
convection allowing models (CAMs) are not too excited about early
Friday morning storms, but the NAM12 and GFS20 (non-CAM models) are
more aggressive with their QPF development along the 800-700mb
frontal zone across the southern third of our forecast area (mainly
along/south of the Ark River). The HRRR runs do show some signal in
its Composite Reflectivity, but the HRRR model does not have very
aggressive thunderstorm development. We will keep 20-30 POPs going
early in the morning given the aforementioned frontogenetic forcing
for ascent, but leaning more toward just widely scattered non-severe
convection at this point.
Later in the day Friday, a dryline will develop with temperatures
really warming up along/west of the dryline. There is strong
consensus among all models, including short term CAMs, of at least a
quarter to a third of the forecast area (far southwest Kansas)
reaching 100 degrees in the mid-late afternoon before any
thunderstorms develop. So, official forecast highs will be 100 or
101 for areas like Liberal, Elkhart, Hugoton, Johnson, and Ulysses.
Elsewhere east of the dryline, temperatures will likely top out in
the lower to mid 90s.
Later in the afternoon and evening Friday, the focus will shift to
renewed surface-based thunderstorm development. All models show
thunderstorm activity developing and/or moving into western Kansas.
The question then comes down into the details. How much of the
thunderstorm activity will be what moves in from Colorado vs. how
much of our activity in southwest Kansas will be from pristine
development along the trough axis/dryline to the east of the
Colorado line. Colorado storms will initially develop in drier air
where convective temperature is reached first (i.e. 0-3km AGL lapse
rates becoming dry adiabatic). Regardless, we will not be looking at
a significant severe weather event as the main forcing for ascent
and greater deep layer wind shear will be up across Nebraska, so the
SPC Day Two Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is a good forecast at this
point. The likelihood of a nocturnal mesoscale convective system
(MCS) sweeping across our southwest Kansas region is rather low with
the main MCS signal well to our northeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Over the past several forecast cycles, the best signal for the most
numerous thunderstorm activity across west central/southwest Kansas
has been the Saturday Night period. This thinking has not changed,
and in fact there is now growing confidence in a fairly robust MCS
or two tracking across much of western/central Kansas Saturday
Night. For this reason, the Saturday Night period POPs have been
increased to "Likely" 55+ percent across nearly the entire forecast
area with the exception of our eastern counties.
A significant Saturday Night MCS will almost assuredly have impacts
on Sunday`s sensible weather. For this reason, Sunday`s forecast is
less confident, but low level moisture will be around and almost all
models show low level winds in a favorable east/southeast upslope
direction with mid to upper 60s dewpoints pulling back west into
southwest Kansas. The 64-thousand dollar question, though, is how
worked over the boundary layer will be and will there be enough
recovery for another MCS Sunday evening/night. The best forecast is
that the axis of best MCS probability Sunday Night will be a bit
farther south than where Saturday Night`s MCS will be.
After Sunday Night, the pattern becomes complicated with an upper
low likely off the coast of southern California/Baja and the main
polar jet well to the north along the Canada line. Eventually, the
cutoff upper level low will eject northeast across the Intermountain
West/Rockies, but there is a lot of model difference in the
evolution of this going into mid to late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024
VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. A
warm front will lift into southwest Kansas tonight and we could
see some isolated thunderstorms develop mainly between 10-15Z
which could affect the GCK, LBL, and DDC airports. However the
chances of storms affecting the airports will be low at around
20%. Winds will pick up after 15Z as we will have sustained
winds at 15-25 kts with gusts over 30 kts at times especially
between 18-00Z. We will also have to watch thunderstorm
development after 21Z as a storm system comes out of Colorado.
Storms that develop could be affecting the LBL terminal close
to 00Z.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
821 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe weather returns Friday. Main threat is hail up to golf
ball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH with a secondary threat
of Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) tornadoes.
- Active weather pattern continues Saturday through Monday with
similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
afternoon/evening.
- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Anticipating showers and storms to develop around sunrise as
isentropic lift enhances; RAP has consistently been showing this
additional lift making it to the I-70 corridor so have added
slight chance (20%) pops to include this area. These storms
should be fairly decent (albeit quick) precipitation makers; no
severe weather is not anticipated with this activity.
Did increase temperatures area wide for tomorrow with mid to
upper 90s currently forecasted as nearly all guidance other than
the NAM have increased temperatures. Do need to keep the NAM in
mind however as the moisture return is quite a bit stronger with
dew points being in the mid 60s to upper 60s; which if this
occurs temperatures won`t be as warm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Early this afternoon the sky was clear as dry northwest upper level
flow persisted over the Central Plains. A ridge was centered over
the Desert Southwest with a trough over the Great Lakes Region. At
the surface a cooler air mass was over the forecast area with light
easterly winds and a surface ridge over Nebraska.
For the rest of the day the winds will continue to be light but turn
to the south as a surface high pressure over Nebraska drifts to the
east.
Tonight light south winds are expected. A weak upper level short
wave trough will move over Southwest Kansas during the evening into
the overnight hours. The strongest forcing with this trough will be
over the TX/OK panhandles. There may be some isolated storm
activity over the forecast area. However confidence is just high
enough for these storms to occur to include them in the forecast.
Friday will be warmer than today due to the WAA from the south
winds. During the day a dry line will setup near the CO/KS border.
By mid afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the
forecast area from the west. There is very little to no instability
over East Central CO, so am not anticipating much for thunderstorm
coverage. Due to the high cloud bases, strong winds may occur with
any storms that form. As the upper level short wave trough
approaches the dry line, storm coverage may increase as well as
storm intensity. Models indicate a line of storms should form as
the outflow boundaries form the initial storms merge together. The
mean flow is to the east-southeast so anticipate the storm activity
to head that direction through the afternoon and evening.
Friday night storm coverage should increase before mid evening over
the eastern third of the forecast area, with lesser coverage to the
west where the lift is not as strong and the environment is more
stable.
Regarding threats initial, lone storms are supportive of hail up to
golfball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH. However as storms merge
together the threat will shift to more of damaging wind gusts than
hail. A secondary threat will be the potential for QLCS tornadoes to
occur over the eastern half of the forecast area. Latest data shows
the 0-3km winds are orientated in a similar direction to the mean
wind. The shear will be 30-40 kts, more than enough to support brief
tornado development for any part of the line that is perpendicular
to the 0-3 km shear. The tornado threat will be more of a concern
during the evening when the low level winds increase.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Saturday through Thursday will have chances for storms continuing.
The setup is very similar to what has occurred Sunday and what will
occur Friday; an upper level short wave trough moving in from the
west leading to storm activity spreading across the forecast area
from west to east.
Saturday the strongest storm activity should be confined to the
southwest quadrant of the forecast area where the instability will
be. A cold front will be draped over the southwest part of the
forecast area. Behind the front will be little to no instability.
Sunday and Monday the cooler air mass looks to shift some to the
northeast, allowing instability to move over the western half of the
forecast area. More stable air continues to the east.
Tuesday through Thursday the upper level ridge currently over the
west shifts toward and then over the forecast area. There are some
weaker troughs which move through. However model consensus has
little to no rainfall chances for the forecast area. Wouldn`t be
surprised if there ends up being minimal rainfall chances during
this timeframe given the weak upper level troughs moving through.
Thursday night models have the strongest upper level short wave
trough of the week moving over the forecast area. Quite a bit can
change between now and then. However this is something to be aware
of as this trough passage would provide the best chance for severe
weather, if the track/timing hold.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
VFR conditions are currently forecast this period. Southerly
winds are forecast, but are forecast to become breezy around 15
knots as moisture advection ensues overnight. Monitoring for
some potential rain showers Friday morning for KGLD around
11Z.Another round of showers and storms returns towards the end
of the period but overall coverage is still being worked out so
will leave the mention out for now. Towards the end of the
period as well, lower level wind field weakens but am
anticipating deep mixing with gusts around 20 knots.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
759 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Non-severe thunderstorm chances continue in the east through
this evening.
- Showery weather and much cooler conditions through the
weekend under the influence of low pressure, then warming and
drying early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
RAP analysis shows a vertically stacked trough over much of northern
Ontario that continues to send shortwave impulses through the Upper
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region. This is the forcing for the
showers and occasional thunderstorms evident on radar returns. Most
of these storms have gone up and come back down in just a handful of
radar scans, but a few of them have had vigorous enough updrafts to
produce gusty winds (peak so far as of 18Z is a gust of 32 kt at
KESC) and pea sized hail. The outlook for these storms is fairly low
as peak SBCAPE in the 12Z HREF is only around 500 J/kg and not much
shear to work with. Precipitation rates are also not expected to be
extreme as HREF mean total precip by 12Z Friday is only around a
tenth to a half of inch.
With cool, northwesterly flow aloft, temperatures are once again
cooler day-over-day, with highs only in the 60s and upper 50s today
and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Mixing is allowing a 30-35 kt jet at
950mb to mix towards the surface, leading to gusty W and NW winds at
the surface through tonight. As troughing weakens and shift
northeast, expect a drying trend overnight with regards to
precipitation, though broken to overcast skies will prevail through
at least 12Z Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over eastern
Ontario 12z Fri with a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies
with a ridge across the southern plains and southern Rockies. The
northern Rockies shortwave moves into the northern plains 00z Sat
and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat. The shortwave moves into the
lower Great Lakes 00z Sun and into New England 00z Mon. Starts to
dry out Fri with next system arriving late Fri night into Sat with
some pops hanging on into Sunday.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the ern
U.S. and a trough in the western U.S. 12z Mon with a ridge in the
northern plains. Upper troughing moves into the northern plains 12z
Tue which moves through the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed. Ridging then
moves into the northern plains 12z Thu. Temperatures will go from
below normal on Monday to above normal Tuesday onward. Dry for Sun
night into Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 758 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
A nearly stationary low pressure over Ontario results in a steady
flow of marginally MVFR/VFR cigs across our 3 TAF sites. Each TAF
site has been VFR for several hours now so tend to favor VFR
prevailing, but model guidance indicates a lowering trend this
evening with the loss of heating. Have accounted for this
possibility with a scattered MVFR deck until confidence in this
happening increases. Regardless of what happens tonight, all sites
improve to VFR Friday morning after sunrise. Breezy WNW winds
continue at all terminals through Friday, but gustiness was
left out of TAFs during the nighttime.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Winds will continue to be around 20 knots tonight through Friday
before falling mostly below 20 knots Friday night through Tuesday.
No strong systems affecting the area through the period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...EK
MARINE...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
446 PM MST Thu Jun 6 2024
.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure positioned over the region will
promote some of the hottest temperatures so far this year today and
tomorrow. As a result, Excessive Heat Warnings will remain in effect
across much of the lower deserts through Friday evening. A weak
weather system will traverse the Desert Southwest this weekend,
leading to increased cloud cover and a slight cooldown before
another warming trend into the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Current wv imagery and upper air streamline analysis shows our
region between a cutoff low centered west of the Baja Peninsula and
an anticyclonic circulation over New Mexico, with southeasterly flow
overhead. As is typical with southeasterly flow this time of year,
moisture has begun to move into the region, but mostly at higher
levels (i.e., above 15 kft). Increasing mid and high level clouds
over the lower deserts can be expected as a result. This increase
in moisture has also led to cumulus formation over the high
terrain of the White Mountains and along the Mogollon Rim, which
are expected to continue developing over the afternoon into
isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms. Convective activity will
stay far north/east of Phoenix, but eastern Gila County could
(less than 10% chance) see an isolated dry thunderstorm.
The main sensible weather impact of the current upper level setup
will be excessively hot temperatures. Strong positive 500 mb height
anomalies have set up over much of the Southwestern US, with current
RAP analysis showing a broad area of 592+ dam heights, particularly
east of our CWA (along the upper level ridge axis). With mostly
sunny skies through this afternoon and strong high pressure aloft,
the lower deserts will see their hottest temperatures so far this
year. Sky Harbor has already reached 110 degrees F this afternoon,
and the forecast high remains at 113 degrees, which would be 2
degrees above the daily record for 6 June if it comes to fruition.
The current upper level setup will remain relatively unchanged into
tomorrow, leading to similar highs across the lower deserts ranging
from 107 to 112 degrees, and repeat chances for (mostly) dry
thunderstorms over the high terrain of eastern AZ.
The cut-off low will start to affect our region more starting
Saturday as the low center reaches the northern Gulf of California
later in the day. The increasing proximity of the low should also
bring even more higher level clouds into the region for Saturday,
lasting through Sunday when the weakening low moves through the
area. Some modest cooling will be realized this weekend as NBM
forecast temperatures lower to between 104-110 degrees Saturday and
103-107 degrees Sunday.
Beyond this weekend, WPC cluster analysis reveals good agreement
between global ensembles as to the upper level flow evolution over
the next 7 days. Another cutoff low is expected to form by Monday
and meander off the northern Baja/Southern California coast through
the middle of next week. Discrepancies in the strength of ridging
over the Western CONUS and exact position/proximity of the cutoff
lead to large uncertainty in daily highs (probabilistic NBM inner
quartile spread of 5+ degrees as early as Monday) and moisture
availability for high terrain convective activity. However, another
warming trend into the middle of next week looks likely such that
Excessive Heat could again be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2345Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies at all terminals,
with speeds generally aob 10 kts outside of some occasional gusts
up to 15-20 kts through sunset tonight and then again tomorrow
afternoon and early evening. SCT-BKN high clouds will continue
through the TAF period for the Phoenix Metro. High clouds are
starting to push into SE CA and will become SCT-BKN for those
terminals later this evening and then will continue through the
remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions will continue to support high fire danger
across the area. Well above normal temperatures are forecast
through Friday with highs at or just above 110 degrees for a good
portion of the lower deserts. Winds will continue to be fairly
light much of the time, but occasionally gusting upwards of 20
mph during the afternoon hours. MinRH values will hover around
10%, with poor to fair overnight recoveries as MaxRHs range
between 20-40%. A weak weather system is then expected to move
through the region this weekend allowing temperatures to start to
lower, but remaining above normal. Winds will also increase a bit
which could push afternoon gusts up to 25 mph in some locations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures:
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro
---- ------- ---- ---------
June 6 111 in 2016 114 in 1928 113 in 2002
June 7 115 in 1985 116 in 1985 113 in 1985
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>556-
559>562.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ561-563-566-
567-569-570.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Whittock
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
943 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move in with less humid air for the weekend. A
passing disturbance will bring unsettled weather Sunday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 943 PM Thursday...
A band of pre-frontal showers/tstms is crossing central NC attm, out
ahead of a sfc cold front that is now crossing the mountains. Until
this band of convection moves to our east around 2 AM or so...
lingering elevated instability could help maintain the risk for some
lightning as well as some isold 40+ mph wind gusts with the
strongest cells.
Regional radar shows a couple areas of additional scattered shower
activity ongoing attm to our northwest over the mountains near the
actual front. Latest HRRR suggests this activity will decrease
before reaching our area, thus will remove PoPs from west to east
overnight after the current band of convection moves to our east.
Lows in the mid 60s north to lower 70s SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Thursday...
This period will be largely dry with lower humidity. The cold front
is expected to be pushing through the Coastal Plain Fri morning
before settling to our SE, as high pressure over MO/AR drifts
eastward and into our area with a dry and diffluent NW/NNW low level
flow. PWs will drop to an inch or less and remain low through at
least the first half of Sat. We will see a lee trough set up over NC
Sat as a second cold front pushes through the Midwest and toward our
area, with PWs expected to rebound back near 1.5" as a weak mid
level trough and slug of deeper moisture cross the area Sat
evening/night, however point soundings show that much of this
moisture is in the mid-upper levels, with minimal lower level
moisture, thus expect it to stay largely dry with little more than a
few sprinkles. Temps are likely to stay within a degree or two of
normals for highs and lows, although perhaps a bit warmer Sat night
with an expected increase in clouds. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 231 PM Thursday...
Upper level low pressure over eastern Canada and associated surface
low will drag a cold front across much of the eastern CONUS on
Sunday, including NC. PW`s will remain at or above 1.5 inches across
the area on Sunday ahead of the front, but most guidance shows
precip lagging behind and not moving through NC until late in the
day, perhaps as late as 00Z. I will maintain 20-30 PoPs across the
area Sunday afternoon through the early overnight hours as the front
moves through. Temps Sunday within the warm sector ahead of the
front should easily reach the upper 80s across the western Piedmont,
to the mid 90s across the southeast. Lows Sunday night likely
ranging from the mid to upper 60s.
In the wake of the front, broad WNW flow aloft is expected across
the area through at least Tuesday. There are some ensemble solutions
that suggest a trailing shortwave trough will cross the mountains
and move through the area on Monday, kicking off additional showers
in the process. Between the presence of a lee trough and a potential
shortwave, I can`t entirely rule out some isolated showers on Monday
but they will be occurring within a relatively dry post-frontal
atmosphere featuring sub 1.0" PW`s and weak forcing. 15-20 PoPs
primarily during the afternoon/early evening hours are well
supported by today`s ensembles. Highs Monday will range from the
lower 80s in the west to upper 80s in the east. Lows in the upper
50s to mid 60s.
Forecast confidence is relatively low for Tuesday through Thursday
given the changing nature of the upper flow and how quickly it
transitions from northwesterly to weak ridging to southwesterly.
Tuesday looks to be the day where upper ridging is most likely
although some isolated weak diurnal showers are still possible. As
the week progresses, return flow sets up and higher PW`s begin to
creep northward, yet upper shortwaves and best forcing remains
displaced west of the area. PoPs from Tuesday onward will be
primarily diurnal in nature ranging from 20-30 percent area-wide.
This time period will also feature steadily increasing temperatures
with highs returning to the upper 80s. Lows in the mid/upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...
24-hour TAF period: Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms
will continue across central NC this evening. The threat should end
around INT and GSO in the next hour or two, but at the eastern TAF
sites (RDU, FAY and RWI) it will last for several more hours. Brief
MVFR ceilings, MVFR to IFR visibilities, and gusty winds as high as
35-45 kts can`t be ruled out with any storms. The storms should be
largely out of the area by 06z, but a few showers could linger in
the far SE for a few hours after that. Otherwise it will be a quiet
overnight with VFR conditions and clearing skies, as we dry out
behind a cold frontal passage. Clear skies and VFR conditions will
continue tomorrow. SW winds ahead of the cold front will turn W/NW
once the front passes through tonight, remaining fairly light
outside of any storms/outflows. W/NW winds will increase from late
morning into the afternoon tomorrow, gusting up to 15-20 kts.
Outlook: A moisture starved cold front and upper disturbance could
bring some isolated showers or storms Sunday night and Monday.
Otherwise, mostly dry VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday,
but confidence in the forecast once we get to Tuesday is low.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Danco/CBL