MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Model Predictions (July 2)
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Tarik Skubal.
We're back!
Tuesday's outlook is much better after taking Sunday off and not finding any value in Monday's three-game slate.
Every team is in action, with plenty of edges to be found.
We have four more MLB NRFI & YRFImodel picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 2.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Model Predictions (July 2)
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson vs. Mitch Keller
The crux of the argument is the regression due to both starting pitchers in the game.
Kyle Gibson's xERA is more than a run higher than his actual ERA, while Keller has over half a run of difference.
Looking at their first-time-through-the-order stats, Gibson's 4.65 ERA and 4.41 xFIP indicate he's not as good early in games, while Keller also has an xFIP slightly over 4.00.
With both team's lineups also being very "top-heavy," a good chunk of the 8.5 implied runs will likely come from the top. Especially with Willson Contreras back in the lineup for the Cardinals — he's been their best hitter this season.
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Arrigheti vs. Jose Berrios
This game also has an 8.5-run total, but Houston's starter is due for positive regression.
Arrigheti has a 5.68 overall ERA, but his earned run indicators are in the low fours. He's also been better in recent starts after getting beat up in his first few big-league appearances.
More importantly, his first time through the order xFIP is a solid 3.56.
Berrios has similar early game results, with a 3.79 xFIP and 3.70 ERA.
There's some risk at the top of Houston's lineup, but not enough to pass at -110 odds.
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Simeon Woods-Richardson
According to betting markets, tigers ace Tarik Skubal is running away with the AL Cy Young, with only Corbin Burnes anywhere near his +170 odds for the award. His numbers explain why, with a 2.32 overall ERA and better underlying numbers.
His ERA drops to 1.47 the first time through the order, more than strong enough to ignore the Twins' solid results against lefties this season.
On the other hand, Woods-Richardson is nowhere near as good, but he's probably good enough against a bad Tigers offense. He has a 3.41 overall ERA that drops to 2.83 his first time through the order, and Detroit is a bottom-six offense against righties.
I'd bet this down to the -130 line available at Caesars if the listed -125 at FanDuel moves.
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Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez vs. George Kirby
We've got two solid starters in this one, with the better of the two — Kirby — taking on the better offense in Baltimore.
Kirby's 3.35 overall ERA drops to 2.37 his first time through the order, which should be enough even against a tough Orioles offense. Especially considering this game is being played in Seattle, given T-Mobile has the lowest Park Factor in baseball.
Conversely, Rodriguez has been solid with his overall and first-time-through-the-order ERAs, around 3.70. He's a somewhat high-strikeout pitcher, so he should have no problem against a Mariners team that strikes out at the highest rate in the league and has a slightly below-average wRC+.
The heavy juice on this line means we have little margin for error, but Caesars also has a similar line, so there are options.
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