Pirates vs Mets Odds & Predictions: Saturday Moneyline Bet

Saturday, July 6

4:05 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
+110	9.5 -105o / -115u	+1.5 -140

New York Mets Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
-130	9.5 -105o / -115u	-1.5 +120

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

David Peterson has had some favorable results for the New York Mets this year. He keeps the ball on the ground, but his peripheral metrics are otherwise awful.

His opponent will be Bailey Falter and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Falter he rarely keeps the ball on the ground and the Mets have been hammering lefties, so this could be a tough matchup for the Pirates.

Additionally, Pittsburgh hasn't been hitting well. As a result, I'll be backing the Mets for my Saturday Pirates vs Mets moneyline prediction.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Falter has a 3.87 ERA, but his xERA is 4.85. His average exit velocity is nearly 90 mph and his hard-hit rate ranks in the 33rd percentile. His ground-ball rate is in the 23rd percentile and Falter has struggled, at times, with control. He also rarely strikes anyone out and is catching the Mets at the wrong time.

The Pirates have been terrible against lefties and my Pirates vs Mets prediction is more of an indictment on Pittsburgh's hitting against southpaws than a bet in favor of Peterson. The Pirates have posted a sub-60 wRC+ off of lefties since June 6. They have only walked 3.7% of the time and a team .550 OPS. Among active players with over eight plate appearances against lefties since June 6, only four have a xwOBA over .280. Basically, only the top of the lineup can do damage. All Peterson will have to do is keep the ball on the ground and limit walks.

The Pirates’ bullpen is fine. However, Hunter Stratton and David Bednar are on the Injured List. Pittsburgh still has a few arms in relief with an xFIP under 4.00 and boasts a 4.04 xFIP as a unit.

New York Mets

Peterson has a 3.51 ERA and a 5.82 xERA. His average exit velocity is over 91 mph and his hard-hit rate is in the 13th percentile. Despite also having issues with walks and rarely striking anyone out, his ground-ball rate is elite. That's his only saving grace, but is should assist him against the bottom portion of the Pirates’ lineup.

The Mets have a 142 wRC+ off of lefties over the past month. Yes, they have a 6.4% walk rate and a 25% strikeout rate, but they also have seven active bats (who have at least eight plate appearances off lefties in that span) with an xwOBA over .310. Much of the lineup can get the job done, and since the Mets have plenty of hitters who can elevate the ball, Falter may have more trouble.

The Mets’ relief staff has been dominant over the past month. Over that span, they have a 24.6% strikeout rate and a walk rate under 8%. Additionally, only Jake Diekman carries an xFIP over 4.00. Even if Peterson has a bad game, there's plenty of talent behind him.

Pirates vs. Mets

Betting Pick & Prediction

Back the Mets to take care of business at home. They have hammered lefties, and although both Falter and Peterson are terrible starters, the Mets have a major edge in relief.

Pick: Mets Moneyline | Play to -152

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