NBA Player Props: Bets for Timberwolves vs Mavericks Game 3 (Sunday, May 26)
The Dallas Mavericks took care of business on the road, winning both games in Minnesota. They have an opportunity to take a commanding 3-0 lead with a victory in Game 3 at home tonight. The Mavericks are 2.5-point favorites with the total at 207.5 points in tonight's contest. Do the Timberwolves have any gas left in the tank to get this series back to Minnesota?
Read below for my top two NBA player props for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 3 on Sunday, May 26 — featuring prop bets for Jaden McDaniels and Dereck Lively.
NBA Player Props: Timberwolves vs Mavericks Game 3
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
After scoring over 20 points in three consecutive games for the first time in his career, Jaden McDaniels was a no-show in Game 2 with only two points. He shot 1-for-6 from the field with a measly 7.4% usage rate despite playing 36 minutes. With Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns struggling recently, McDaniels has done an excellent job of stepping up to the big moment besides in last game. Expect a bounce back performance from the four-year pro.
In his previous three games, including Game 1, McDaniels averaged 22.7 points per game while shooting an absurd 68.6% from the field and 66.7% from behind the arc. That type of ceiling makes McDaniels' over points prop one of the best values on the board. In our player prop model McDaniels is projected to score 11.6 points tonight in Game 3.
With most of the Mavericks' defensive attention going to Edwards and Towns, McDaniels tends to get lost in the sauce. In that three-game stretch, McDaniels was extremely aggressive with 11.7 field goal attempts per game while posting a 20.5% usage rate. He has scored double-digit points in five of his last seven games, while averaging 14.3 points per game. For the Timberwolves to get back in this series, they need another big game from McDaniels.
Given the recent upside McDaniels has displayed scoring the ball, his alternative lines look very juicy. McDaniels to score 12+ points is currently +140 at DraftKings, while him scoring 15+ points is +330. I would climb the ladder with McDaniels' points prop in Game 3. This line and his alternative props are very enticing in this spot.
Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 9.5 Points (-120 | DraftKings)
Another points prop that looks fantastic in our tools is Dereck Lively over 8.5 points at even-money. The rookie from Duke has been a key part of the Mavericks' playoff success. Despite the Timberwolves having Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert alongside Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid, they have been dominating in the paint so far in this series. The Mavericks hold a 116-to-80 scoring advantage in the paint, and Lively has been a big part of those points.
Lively has made all 10 of his field goal attempts and all three of his free-throw attempts through the first two games. Playing alongside two of the best passers in the league with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been a huge bonus for Lively who catches every lob thrown his way. He is averaging a double-double with 11.5 points and 10 rebounds per game. Lively's energy and productivity off the bench has been difficult for the Timberwolves frontcourt to handle.
Lively has scored at least nine points in each of his last four games. During that stretch, the Mavericks' big man is shooting 18-for-20 from the field and 10-for-12 from the charity stripe. Lively's recent production has forced Head Coach Jason Kidd to give him more minutes. He is closing every game while playing upwards of 30 minutes a night.
Our player prop tool projects Lively to score 10.3 points in Game 3. Similar to the Jaden McDaniels points prop, that projection makes Lively's alternative lines look enticing. Lively to record double-digit points is +130, while scoring 12+ points is +255. This is a positive matchup for Lively who has been excellent during the Mavericks' playoff run.
Pick: Dereck Lively Over 8.5 Points (+100 | DraftKings)
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