NHL Best Bets: 3 Picks for Oilers vs Panthers Game 7 (Monday, June 24)
Bruce Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Edmonton’s Connor McDavid.
Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers will look to finish a historic comeback Monday night in one of the most highly anticipated games in NHL history.
Find my NHL Best Bets for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 7, including a side, a first-period total and an exotic on the first player to be handed the Stanley Cup from the winning captain.
NHL Best Bets: Oilers vs Panthers Game 7
As ugly as this potential collapse from the Panthers would be, they're still faced with a scenario they likely would have accepted entering the series.
They say the fourth win is always the hardest one to earn in a series, and we should expect the Panthers to play their best game of the last four in this matchup.
On home ice, the Panthers have been -145 favorites in Game 1, -125 in Game 2 and -150 in Game 5.
The Oilers are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers for the way the last three games have gone. They're now -1o6 on the moneyline, but there's still a case to be made that Edmonton should be favored given how the series has gone.
The Oilers never really deserved to be in a 3-0 hole in the first place and have won the three games in commanding fashion since that point.
Sergei Bobrovsky's level of play has tailed off to some extent since the third period of Game 3, but a big reason why his numbers have been so awful is that the Panthers have given up way more quality looks off the rush than he's seen throughout the season.
The Oilers own a 19-6 lead in odd-man chances over the last three games and have scored plenty of goals that are essentially never going to be saved by any goaltender.
The Oilers have made excellent decisions forechecking in the offensive zone and have done a great job of keeping F3 above the play at all times, which has helped suppress rush chances for the Panthers.
Florida should manage the puck better than we've seen of late, but at this point, the Oilers' superstars are doing a far better job of helping drive offensive play.
In this series, the Oilers own a 51.8% expected goals share and have looked to be the better side in at least four of the six contests thus far.
Edmonton's penalty kill has succeeded 94.1% of the time this postseason, and it's been much better than Florida's in this series.
If you're not willing to credit the Panthers with a notable edge in goal with Bobrovsky anymore, Florida doesn't have many edges.
The amount of home-ice advantage that needs to be baked into this line — and any playoff game — is highly debatable. Road teams are 93-81 over the last two postseasons for a 12.5% ROI. Road teams have also won the last three Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Final. The Oilers have also won a road Game 7 during this playoff run in Vancouver.
The Panthers will push back with a better effort and make tonight's game a grind, but at this point, the Oilers look to be a good bet considering their -106 price tag.
In hockey's biggest moments, players tend to keep things conservative. In the later games of a series, the attention to detail defensively is generally at its highest point.
Referees also tend to only call the most blatant of infractions, while players are also especially careful not to hinder their team with needless penalties.
Game 7 unders are 44-26-9 in the NHL since 2005, including 3-0 this postseason. The first-period under 1.5 is 11-2 this postseason in Games 6 and 7, and six of those games haven't featured a single goal in the first period.
This game does still feature a total of 5.5, but at -150, it's the most juiced of any Game 6 or Game 7 these playoffs.
This matchup should be a low-event game, and true breakdowns will likely be limited.
I don't hate the game total staying under 5.5 by any means, but those will run into some ugly backdoor losses in elimination games, as we saw in Game 6. Even with equal prices, I would still slightly prefer the first-period under. Given that it's a little less juiced at -144, it's my preferred way to target another low-event Game 7.
This is an obscure market that will not be available in all states and will hold low limits. If you're looking in the futures area of bet365 and can't see the market, you're likely in one of the states that doesn't allow this wager.
The Stanley Cup handoff is just what it sounds like — who the Cup will be handed to after the captain holds it. We're trying to evaluate a unique combination of factors that may indicate who will be honored here.
Often, the Cup will go to the longest-serving NHL veteran who has not previously won a title. That's why oddsmakers have tabbed Kyle Okposo as the most likely to receive the handoff from Aleksander Barkov if the Panthers win.
Elliotte Friedman stated on the "32 Thoughts" podcast that he felt fairly comfortable that Ekblad would receive the Cup first if the Panthers win, and the logic seems relatively clear.
Ekblad is the longest-tenured Panthers skater and is rightfully wearing a letter as an assistant captain as a result. He has a ton of significance inside the organization, as he's been a key star in other moments since being drafted first overall in 2014.
Okposo certainly might get it, but it would entirely be based on the length of his excellent career, and he may not even view that as the right thing.
If the Panthers do win this game, the players will care less about who goes second than me or anyone else. But +650 looks too long for Ekblad.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also looks interesting on the Oilers side of things at +250. He was drafted first overall 13 years ago and has been through some hellacious times with the organization. He's not as prominent as Oilers favorite Leon Draisaitl (+225), but he's still a key player who has had a meaningful tenure with the team.
How would you rate this article?