Prop Bet Guy's Picks
Today
G.Williams u15.5 Outs+112
CWS
@
CLE
1u
07/03 10:40 PM
Making his first MLB start this season after a long injury absence, I just don’t see the Guardians pushing him. He only finished 5 IP in one of his rehab starts, and his last start was 4 IP on 82 pitches. He was a 4+ pitch per PA pitcher last season, and even though the white sox lineup is atrocious, I love this spot at plus odds.
Y.Kikuchi u5.5 Ks-125
HOU
@
TOR
1.25u
07/03 11:07 PM
Under in only 8/17 games, however, he’s under in 4/4 games against teams in the bottom 10 of K% vs lefties. HOU has the lowest K% vs southpaws - 16.5% (17.7% on the road).
2-WAY PARLAY+122
1u
Rinse and repeat with Hicks - under in 13/17 including 10/L11. Already has exceeded his career high in innings across all levels (85.2 so far - had not pitched more than 65 in each of the L2 seasons). And he’s mentioned that he’s felt fatigue in his recent starts. Giants bullpen actually has a few guys who can provide multiple innings tonight at as well (Hjelle, Miller, Jackson and one of the Rogers brothers are all on 2+ days rest).
Blanco over this line in 14/15 starts. Jays are tough, but are also at a 25.4% K% over the L2 weeks vs righties. Blanco is tougher on righties (26% K%) and should see 5-6 tonight.
R.Blanco o3.5 Ks-274
HOU
@TOR
07/03 11:07 PM
J.Hicks u15.5 Outs-160
SF
@
ATL
07/03 11:20 PM
2-WAY PARLAY+100
1u
Sale over in 11/L13. Love this spot - I have him with 8 plus matchups (everyone but Matos). Giants RHH platoon a lot more K prone without Estrada and Wilmer.
Mariners can’t hit, but even so, are over in 12/L16. But Kremer is very hittable. Perrenially mid to high 4 xERA. Opponents are 7/9 to the over on this line in his starts this season, and he’s coming off a rehab assignment where he allowed 14 runs in 8.2 IP.
C.Sale o6.5 Ks-280
SF
@ATL
07/03 11:20 PM
SEA o2.5 Team Total-210
BAL
@
SEA
07/04 2:10 AM
Pending
D.Daniel o1.5 BB+114
LAA
@
OAK
1u
07/04 1:40 AM
Coming off a pristine debut, but he was 9/14 to the over on this line in the minors this season. The A’s with an 8.6% walk rate vs righties this season (11th highest; 8.1% L14 days). Angels will need him to pitch deep into this one too - only 4 IP from Soriano last night, and Contreras is going tomorrow, and he’s still building up.
A bit speculative, but worth it at -105 or better.
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2-3-0 | 40% | -0.94u |
| Last 7 Days | 23-13-0 | 64% | 8.97u |
| Last 30 Days | 92-79-0 | 54% | 5.55u |
| All Time | 2248-2029-37 | 52% | 45.65u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 344-266-1 | 56% | 54.49u |
| NCAAB | 336-245-4 | 57% | 51.64u |
| NCAAF | 43-37-1 | 53% | 0.57u |
| WNBA | 17-14-0 | 55% | 0.38u |
| MLB | 764-744-13 | 50% | -15.40u |
| NBA | 744-720-18 | 50% | -42.59u |
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