What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

1 / 2
With his fist raised in a salute of defiance, a wounded Trump entered the iconography of American history in Butler, Pennsylvania. (Evan Vucci/AP)
2 / 2
Short Url
Updated 15 July 2024
Follow

What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

  • Presumptive Republican presidential nominee survived assassination bid at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday
  • Analysts say the attack may generate sympathy and votes for Trump, put Democrats further at a disadvantage

LONDON/ATLANTA: Saudi Arabia led the Arab world’s condemnation on Sunday of the assassination attempt on the life of former US president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump, stressing its rejection of violence, sending condolences to the deceased, and wishing a speedy recovery for those injured.

The Kingdom affirmed its “complete solidarity with the US, the former US president and his family.”

The day before, the world was left in shock when Trump was shot during a campaign rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania.




Donald Trump is escorted by Secret Service agents away from the stage as his right ear bleeds after being hit by an assassin's bullet on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. (AP)

The bullets wounded Trump in his right ear, killing a spectator and critically injuring two others. The former president was escorted off stage by a group of secret service agents while pumping his fist and shouting, “Fight! Fight!”

The shooter, who had positioned himself on a nearby rooftop, was reportedly killed by police snipers. But in that brief moment when he nearly assassinated the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Crooks succeeded in damaging the political future of Biden, placed the Democratic Party in a difficult dilemma, and possibly sowed the seeds of further political polarization.

World leaders immediately condemned the shooting. The leaders of dozens of countries and the UN denounced the assassination attempt and political violence overall.

Leaders from across the Arab world joined in these condemnations. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the “extremist and criminal act,” and Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeled the attack as “a direct assault on democratic values.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi denounced the attack and hoped that the election campaigns would continue in a peaceful manner. Qatar’s foreign ministry also condemned the attack, stressing “the need to pursue dialogue and peaceful means and avoid political violence and hatred to overcome differences at all levels.”

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also condemned the shooting in a message from Ramallah.

Arab Americans from the left and right of the political spectrum spoke out against the failed assassination attempt.

“There is a lot we don’t know. But what we do know is that violent rhetoric can give rise to violent behavior. We need to take action and that violence is never the way to resolve political differences,” Jim Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, told Arab News earlier on Sunday.

Current US president Joe Biden, who is also Trump’s opponent in the upcoming elections, posted on the social media platform X: “There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it.”




President Joe Biden speaks at the White House in Washington on July 14, 2024, to denounce the assassination attempt on his rival Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. (AP)

Multiple replies to Biden’s post accused him of stirring anti-Trump rhetoric, with many going so far as to blame him for the shooting.

Some are questioning how the shooter, whom the FBI have identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Pennsylvania, managed to carry out his attempt on Trump’s life in the presence of secret service agents and police snipers.

“There are serious questions that have to be answered on how the gunman was allowed an unobstructed line of shot, from a nearby rooftop, under 200 meters from the stage on which the former president was standing,” Oubai Shahbandar, a defense analyst and former Pentagon Middle East adviser, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

Little is known about the shooter. State voter records show him as a registered Republican, though he had previously donated to a liberal political action committee as a teenager. Nothing is known about Crooks’ motives, and so far, law enforcement and Crooks’ own family have been silent on the subject.




Police snipers return fire after shots were fired while Donald Trump was speaking at a campaign event in Butler, Penssylvania, on July 13, 2024. (AP)

Regardless of the motivations behind the shooting, many political analysts now believe that the assassination attempt will likely bolster Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election.

“The image of President Trump, wiping the blood streaking across his face away, while defiantly raising his fist in the air and yelling ‘fight! fight!’ and the crowd roaring back ‘USA!’, is nothing short of historic. This will no doubt resonate with voters who contrast it with Biden’s apparent lethargy,” Shahbandar said.

Biden’s chances were already dampened by the June 27 presidential debate, where he was perceived widely to have performed very poorly. Biden appeared to ramble and struggle to speak at certain points, failing to match Trump’s energy and focus. A New York Times/Siena College poll found that after the debate, Trump led Biden 49 to 41 percent among registered voters.




Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives for the campaign rally on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. As he was speaking, an assassin started firing and hit Trump on the ear. (AP)

“The assassination attempt targeting President Trump in fact struck the political future and the candidacy of President Biden and his campaign. The Democrats will be in a very difficult position moving forward. President Trump will garner a lot of sympathy,” Firas Maksad, senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

“It will be very difficult for the Democrats to continue to rely on attacking President Trump personally in their campaign. I also think that President Biden is mortally wounded. They will either have to replace him. If they are unsuccessful in doing so, they are heading to almost certain political defeat in the polls in November.”

According to Zach D. Huff, a Middle East expert and Republican political consultant who assisted President Trump’s 2020 re-election effort in Nevada, “Joe Biden’s loss is a given.”

“Regional powers now have time to try to factor in the impact of President Trump’s nearly guaranteed win,” he told Arab News from Dubai.




In this photo taken on May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (C-L), Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (C-R), and other officials pose for a group photo during the Arab Islamic American Summit in Riyadh. (AFP/File)

The impact of the assassination attempt may have ramifications far beyond Pennsylvania, or even the US.

Shahbandar, the defense analyst, said that “by all objective measures, the likelihood of a Trump return to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is now incredibly high. And that will likely be met with wide support among senior leadership in the Middle East who are eager to engage a team they are well familiar with.”

Huff believes America’s rivals such as Iran and China will be “left guessing what Trump will do to repel their influence.”

“Hamas and Hezbollah could feel pressure to conclude their best possible deal while Biden is around, before Trump wins. They are unlikely to seek an escalation that could easily last into the next US administration,” he said.

As for Biden’s attempts to bring about a Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization, Huff said “the window has already closed, with no time left for the US Senate to ratify an agreement,” adding: “Saudi Arabia will probably find better terms under Trump and may feel less pressure to normalize ties with regional adversaries.”




This photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020 shows US President Donald Trump with Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (left), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and UAE FM Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan during the signing of the Abraham Accords. (AFP)

The history of Trump’s approach to US relations Middle East countries is a checkered one, sometimes focusing on diplomacy and deals and, at other times, focusing on military force.

His first foreign trip in office in May 2017 was to Saudi Arabia, and he maintained warm relations with the Kingdom throughout his term.

In 2020, he facilitated the signing of the Abraham Accords, a series of bilateral agreements between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain. Morocco and Sudan followed suit the next year.

Trump faced criticism, however, for some of his Middle East policy decisions. In 2017 the then-president ordered a series of “precision” strikes on a Syrian airbase, drawing the ire of Russia and Iran. The decision was taken in retaliation for a chemical attack by the Syrian regime in which dozens of civilians were killed.




Children greet a US troop patrol in the Syrian town of al-Jawadiyah, in the northeastern Hasakeh province, near the border with Turkey, on Dec.17, 2020. (AFP)

Just two years later, in October 2019, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, where they had been supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

This decision was strongly condemned in a 354-60 vote in the US House of Representatives, as just days after the withdrawal, a Turkish incursion into the region led to the deaths of hundreds and displacement of 300,000 civilians.

Huff highlighted Trump’s 2024 policy platform, which calls for peace in the Middle East, support for Israel, and the rebuilding of “our alliance network in the region to ensure a future of peace, stability, and prosperity.”

“A key question is how far that alliance network will reach,” he said.




Kurdish fighters and veterans march on Oct.  8, 2019, in front of the UN office in the northern Kurdish Syrian city of Qamishli to protest against Turkish threats in the Kurdish region. (AFP)

“Will it include the Kurds, who hold the line against Iran, and who prevent a return of Daesh? Could it include Qatar and Turkey?”

Going forward, two US lawmakers intend to introduce bipartisan legislation providing President Biden, Trump and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. with enhanced Security Service protection.

The new law could give Donald Trump, Joe Biden and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr enhanced Secret Service protection. “Anything less would be a disservice to our democracy,” Congressmen Ritchie Torres and Mike Lawler said on Sunday.
 

 


UN team in Dhaka to set up probe of student protest killings

Updated 5 min 1 sec ago
Follow

UN team in Dhaka to set up probe of student protest killings

  • New interim administration has pledged to cooperate with UN investigators
  • Preliminary analysis suggests more than 600 people were killed, thousands injured

DHAKA: UN investigators arrived in Dhaka on Thursday to set up a probe of hundreds of deaths during Bangladesh’s recent student-led protests, which led its longtime prime minister to step down.

Initially peaceful demonstrations started in early July, triggered by the reinstatement of a quota system for the allocation of civil service positions. Two weeks later, they were met with a violent crackdown by security forces and a communications blackout.

In early August, as protesters defied nationwide curfew rules and stormed government buildings, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country, ending 15 years in power.

The new interim administration, led by the Nobel-winning economist Muhammad Yunus, has pledged to cooperate with the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to deliver justice and accountability for all the violence committed during the month-long uprising.

Rory Mungoven, chief of the Asia Pacific region at the OHCHR, is leading the three-member team, which met Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen after arrival in Dhaka.

He said the visit aimed at holding “preliminary discussions” with the government.

“It’s really an exploratory visit to discuss with the interim government, with the advisors, with some of the ministries, with the civil society, with this broad section of Bangladesh society, to hear your priorities, your needs going forward and explore some areas where the office of the high commissioner could assist, including in the area of fact-finding and investigation,” Mungoven told reporters.

“The High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk is really inspired by the courage and commitment to democracy and human rights of the Bangladesh people, particularly the students and particularly the youth. And he sees this as a historic opportunity for the country in restoring democracy, renewing institutions, advancing human rights.”

According to the OHCHR’s preliminary analysis of the recent unrest in Bangladesh, which was published on Aug. 16, there are “strong indications” that the security forces used “unnecessary and disproportionate force” in their response to the student-led protests.

“Alleged violations included extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests and detention, enforced disappearances, torture and ill-treatment, and severe restrictions on the exercise of freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly,” the report reads.

“According to available public reports by media and the protest movement itself, between 16 July and 11 August, more than 600 people were killed … Thousands of protesters and bystanders have been injured, with hospitals overwhelmed by the influx of patients. The reported death toll is likely an underestimate.”

The majority of deaths and injuries have been attributed to the security forces and the student wing affiliated with the then-ruling Awami League party.

The casualties, the report said, resulted from “the use of live ammunition and other force against protesters who while acting violently reportedly were not armed, or only lightly armed,” as well as “from instances of security forces unlawfully using lethal force against protesters posing no apparent threat, unarmed protesters, and bystanders, including at least 4 journalists and at least 32 children.”

Most victims have been among student demonstrators, whose colleagues are hoping for justice and accountability.

“We want to believe that we will have a proper investigation,” Umama Fatema, coordinator of Students Against Discrimination, the main protest organizing group, told Arab News.

“We wanted the International Criminal Court and the UN to intervene in this situation from the very beginning. We just want a proper investigation, and we want to get a proper report. We want to see a proper report on the whole massacre that happened in Bangladesh.”


Indian state plans law for Muslim marriages and divorces

Updated 22 August 2024
Follow

Indian state plans law for Muslim marriages and divorces

  • The bill is seen as a state-level step toward the government’s proposed common civil code of law

Guwahati: Indian authorities in Assam state have introduced a bill that would require Muslims to register their marriages and divorces, with the chief minister claiming the measure will help stop child marriage.
The bill is seen as a state-level step toward the government’s proposed common civil code of law, which is bitterly opposed by Muslim activists as an attack on their faith.
India’s 1.4 billion people are subject to a common criminal law, but personal matters such as marriage, divorce and inheritance are governed by varying rules based on the traditions of different communities and faiths.
In Assam, it is already mandatory for other religions to register marriages with civil authorities.
Assam’s state government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), said the bill would be tabled during the next state assembly.
“Our basic intention is to stop child marriages,” Himanta Biswa Sarma, chief minister of the northeastern state, told reporters Wednesday.
Sarma said the Assam Compulsory Registration of Muslim Marriages and Divorces Bill would not restrict religious rituals, but only ensure marriages and divorces were registered.
The bill will “provide safeguards and benefits... especially to women and prevent the menace of child marriages,” he said.
Modi said this month he wanted to press ahead with a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) to standardise laws for personal matters across faiths and religious communities.
Many communities, particularly Muslims, fear a UCC would encroach on their religious laws.
Modi maintains it would serve as an equalizer.
“Those laws that divide the country on the basis of religion, that become reason for inequality, should have no place in a modern society,” Modi said during an Independence Day address on August 15.
“That is why I say: the times demand that there is a secular civil code in the country.”
Modi won a third successive term in office in June but was forced into a coalition government for the first time in a decade.
The BJP’s Hindu nationalist rhetoric has left India’s Muslim population of more than 220 million increasingly anxious about their future.


India’s Modi urges peace ahead of Ukraine visit

Updated 22 August 2024
Follow

India’s Modi urges peace ahead of Ukraine visit

  • Narendra Modi will be the first Indian premier to make a Ukraine trip
  • The Indian government has avoided explicit condemnations of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine

WARSAW: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said no conflict could be resolved on a battlefield as he spoke in Poland on the eve of his historic visit to war-torn Ukraine.
Modi will be the first Indian premier to make a Ukraine trip and is the first in 45 years to visit Poland, Kyiv’s loyal ally that is a key transit for foreign leaders heading to its war-torn neighbor.
The Indian government has avoided explicit condemnations of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, instead urging both sides to resolve their differences through dialogue.
“It is India’s strong belief that no problem can be resolved on a battlefield,” Modi said in Warsaw, adding his country supports “dialogue and diplomacy for restoration of peace and stability as soon as possible.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk welcomed Modi and his delegation at the seat of government, with flags of both countries hoisted outside the building and their anthems played by the military band.
“History has taught our nations the importance of respecting the rules, respecting borders, territorial integrity,” Tusk said as he spoke to reporters alongside the Indian leader.
Tusk also added that Modi “reaffirmed his willingness to commit himself personally to a peaceful, just, quick end to the war.”
After the talks, Modi will lay a wreath at a war memorial in central Warsaw before heading for talks with Polish President Andrzej Duda.
Later on Thursday the Indian leader is expected to leave the Polish capital to travel to neighboring Ukraine for his first visit to the country fighting to stave off the Russian invasion.
Modi has trodden a delicate balance between maintaining India’s historically warm ties with Russia while courting closer security partnerships with Western nations as a bulwark against regional rival China.
“As a friend and partner, we hope for an early return of peace and stability in the region,” Modi said in a statement published Wednesday before his departure for Poland.
In Kyiv, Modi will hold talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky and “share perspectives on peaceful resolution of the ongoing Ukraine conflict,” the statement added.
On Wednesday, Modi commemorated an Indian maharaja who sheltered Polish children during World War II, laying flowers at the marble lotus-crowned monument erected in Warsaw in honor of the maharaja.
In a little-known story linking the two nations, the maharaja hosted Polish children in what is now Gujarat — Modi’s home state where he was chief minister before launching national political career.
The Indian leader announced a youth exchange program named after the maharaja, under which 20 Polish young people would be invited to India each year.
“We are finally starting to have the right level of political and diplomatic relations,” Polish deputy foreign minister Wladyslaw Teofil Bartoszewski said about the visit.
He said Warsaw was counting on cooperation with India in “in the agricultural sector, in the IT sector, in the security sector, in the new technology sector, especially green technology.”
Modi on Wednesday delivered a speech in Hindi to the Indian community in Warsaw, promising “a drastic expansion of Indian economy in coming years.”
He is expected to meet with Leszek Balcerowicz, a former Polish finance minister and free market pioneer who steered Poland’s economic transition from communism to capitalism in early 1990s.
According to the Indian Embassy, Modi will also meet captains of kabaddi teams — a tag-meets-rugby contact team sport rooted in Indian mythology and said to date back 5,000 years.


Floods swamp Bangladesh as nation finds its feet after protests

Updated 22 August 2024
Follow

Floods swamp Bangladesh as nation finds its feet after protests

  • At least two people have died and hundreds of thousands are stranded in the floods in at least eight districts
  • Around 2.9 million people have been affected and more than 70,000 people have been taken to shelters

DHAKA: Floods triggered by torrential rains have swamped a swath of low-lying Bangladesh, disaster officials said Thursday, adding to the new government’s challenges after weeks of political turmoil.
At least two people have died and hundreds of thousands are stranded in the floods in at least eight districts in southern and eastern areas.
“Around 2.9 million people have been affected and more than 70,000 people have been taken to shelters,” Mohammad Nazmul Abedin, senior official in the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, told AFP.
Long-time premier Sheikh Hasina quit as prime minister this month and fled to India after weeks of deadly student-led protests, ending her 15-year autocratic rule.
The South Asian nation of 170 million people, crisscrossed by hundreds of rivers, has seen frequent floods in recent decades.
It is among the countries most vulnerable to disasters and climate change, according to the Global Climate Risk Index.
The annual monsoon rains cause widespread destruction every year, but climate change is shifting weather patterns and increasing the number of extreme weather events.
The army and the navy have been deployed, with speedboats and helicopters rescuing those stranded by the swollen rivers.
Much of the country is made up of deltas where the Himalayan rivers the Ganges and the Brahmaputra wind toward the sea after coursing through India.
Neighbouring India’s foreign ministry rejected accusations it was to blame for the floods, denying it had deliberately released water from an upstream dam.
It said the catchment area had experienced the “heaviest rains of this year over the last few days,” and that the flow of water downstream was due to “automatic releases.”
Asif Mahmud, a key leader of the student protests that ousted Hasina, and now the sports minister in the interim cabinet, had accused India of not only hosting Hasina, but of “creating a flood” by deliberately releasing water from dams.
India said that was “factually not correct.”
“Floods on the common rivers between India and Bangladesh are a shared problem inflicting sufferings to people on both sides, and requires close mutual cooperation toward resolving them,” New Delhi’s foreign ministry said in a statement.
Hasina’s rule saw widespread human rights abuses, including the mass detention and extrajudicial killings of her political opponents.
But Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu-nationalist government preferred Hasina over her rivals from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which it saw as closer to conservative Islamist groups.
Modi has offered his support to the new Bangladeshi leader Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who is heading the caretaker administration.


Thailand confirms Asia’s first known case of new mpox strain

Updated 22 August 2024
Follow

Thailand confirms Asia’s first known case of new mpox strain

  • Clade 1b causes death in about 3.6 percent of cases, with children more at risk, according to the WHO
  • Mpox much less likely to spread rapidly than COVID-19 because of the close contact needed to catch it

BANGKOK: Thailand on Thursday confirmed Asia’s first known case of a new, deadlier strain of mpox in a patient who had traveled to the kingdom from Africa.
The patient landed in Bangkok on August 14 and was sent to hospital with mpox symptoms.
The Department of Disease Control said laboratory tests on the 66-year-old European confirmed he was infected with mpox Clade 1b.
“Thailand’s Department of Disease Control wishes to confirm the lab test result which shows mpox Clade 1b in a European patient,” the department said in a statement, adding that the World Health Organization (WHO) would be informed of the development.
“We have monitored 43 people who have been in close contact with the patient and so far they have shown no symptoms, but we must continue monitoring for a total of 21 days.”
Anyone traveling to Thailand from 42 “risk countries” must register and undergo testing on arrival, the department said.
Mpox cases and deaths are surging in Africa, where outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda since July.
The World Health Organization has declared a global public health emergency over the new variant of mpox, urging manufacturers to ramp up production of vaccines.
The disease — caused by a virus transmitted by infected animals but passed from human to human through close physical contact — causes fever, muscular aches and large boil-like skin lesions.
While mpox has been known for decades, a new deadlier and more transmissible strain — known as Clade 1b — has driven the recent surge in cases.
Clade 1b causes death in about 3.6 percent of cases, with children more at risk, according to the WHO.
Thongchai Keeratihattayakorn, head of the Thai Department of Disease Control, said that mpox was much less likely to spread rapidly than COVID-19 because of the close contact needed to catch it.