In road racing, sprints, in particular, can feel like an “all or nothing” type of situation. Cross the line first and forever live in glory in the memory of thousands, or be the first loser in second place. It’s brutal. But that’s the truth. Fans rarely remember second place, but those in that spot will forever remember what they lost. So, in his final year as a professional racer, at the age of 39, which one will it be for Mark Cavendish at his final Tour de France?
Cruelty and arbitration are the authors behind the similes and metaphors that compare the Tour de France to historic bloody battles and its competitors to legendary gladiators. But perhaps, being naturally cruel and arbitrary, the Tour de France needs no figurative language to describe the height of its stakes.
While the Tour’s sprint points competition rewards consistency with its Green Jersey, the glory of a record-beating win would require that history be amended, most notably.
This may be why Cavendish dances around the question so often in media scrums; after all, who wants to admit and announce to the world that they are pursuing the dethroning of one of the greatest riders of all time? Eddy Merckx, who, at 79 years of age, is still alive and kicking, and isn’t shy about defending his legacy.
“I wouldn’t say Mark is the greatest sprinter of all time, but he is one of the greatest,” Merckx said of Cavendish in a 2021 interview.
“There’ll be no problem if Cavendish equals my record. I won’t lose any sleep over it.”
Sprinters like Cavendish see the glass half full and half empty in the same glance. With the clarity that only two decades of experience can provide, the glass, the water, the “empty” space, it just is what it is to the British sprinter. He is used to staring down the line that separates winners from losers like a scientist carefully measuring the liquid meniscus, the thin concave band of only a few millimeters in width that divides a glass in two—a visual analogy for the duality of mindsets and outcomes.
Despite his evasive maneuvers in front of recorders and microphones, it only takes the slightest attention to realize that Cav is an open book. As soon as he turns around from fans and reporters asking the question, his face gives away how much another chance to win at the Tour means to him.
Perhaps the chance alone is more important to him than a win or a record, which can sound so final. The chance itself is more ethereal and generous. And in this year’s Tour, Cav will have six to eight chances, depending on who you ask.
So, can Mark Cavendish win his 35th Tour de France stage? Not to be nitpicky about language and grammar, but words are powerful, and I must point out the wrongness of the query.
Speaking of capability alone, knowing what we know about Cav and the opportunities that this year’s Tour de France route will provide: Of course, he can win a stage and take the record that Merckx has held since 1977 (47 years).
This season, Cavendish has won two sprint finishes at stage races, one at Vuelta a Colombia and one at Tour on Hongrie, where he also finished second place in the Points Classification. Which, to be fair, does not compare to the results of last year’s Tour de France Green Jersey winner, Jasper Philipsen of Alpecin-Deceuninck, who so far this season has tallied five wins, plus a flurry of second-place finishes.
However, grand-tour sprinting is the type of rugged battle that rewards experience perhaps a bit more than the ferocity of youth. And, as we also know, Philipsen, at 26 years of age, is not unbeatable and has been known to make mistakes.
Despite his age, Cavendish has shown remarkable resilience and experience, invaluable in the high-pressure environment of the 21-day race. His determination and focus on achieving this historic milestone are unparalleled, especially after his heartbreaking crash last year when he was on the verge of victory in Stage 8. Cavendish’s drive to make this his final, triumphant season is a powerful motivator.
Moreover, Astana Qazaqstan has bolstered its support for Cavendish by signing key lead-out riders Michael Mørkøv and Davide Ballerini, who played crucial roles in Cavendish’s previous successes. This will increase his chances of being well-positioned in the eight opportunities for a sprint finish the Tour has in store. And remember, he only needs one more win.
While the competition will be intense, with fiery and talented sprinters like Jasper Philipsen and Mads Pedersen, Cavendish’s proven track record and the strategic support from his team make it highly plausible for him to secure that record-breaking 35th stage win, adding another remarkable chapter to his iconic career.
This is why the question should be: Will Mark Cavendish win his 35th Tour de France stage? Because he most certainly can pull it off.
