After four of the hardest opening stages in Tour de France history–including Tuesday’s Stage 4, 140km high mountain stage that took the riders over the 2,600m Col du Galibier–Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) has to be feeling good about having lost only 50 seconds to Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)–all of them at the end of Stage 4.
After all, the Tour’s two-time defending champion didn’t even look as if he would be competing at the 2024 Tour de France after a horrible crash at the Tour of the Basque Country in early April left the 27-year-old Dane with a broken collarbone, a few cracked ribs, and a punctured lung. Vingegaard spent 12 days in the hospital and then more time recovering at home. As the weeks ticked by and the Tour de France got closer and closer, it began to look as if the Dane wouldn’t even be starting the race in Florence last Saturday—let alone contending to win a third yellow jersey.
But there was Vingegaard going blow-for-blow with Pogačar on the steep slopes of the Côte de San Luca at the end of Stage 2 after following the Slovenian’s attack over the top of the climb and then down to the finish in Bologna.
The San Luca’s steep upper slopes were tailor-made for an acceleration by the Slovenian, and we wouldn’t have been surprised if the Dane–who prefers longer, steadier climbs–struggled to cover the attack that everyone knew Pogačar was going to make. But Vingegaard was quick to respond and stayed glued to Pogačar's wheel–just as he did during the opening weekend of last year’s Tour de France when the Slovenian made similar accelerations.
And Vingegaard was also the only rider able to respond to Pogačar as the leading group of GC contenders approached the top of the Galibier late in Stage 4. The final kilometer is the steepest part of the climb, and Pogačar once again exploded off the wheel of one of his teammates to try and drop his rivals. Again, Vingegaard latched onto his wheel, staying there for a couple hundred meters. But this time, as opposed to the San Luca, the effort was just a bit too much for the Dane.
He crested the climb about 10 seconds behind the Slovenian—losing a few bonus seconds in the process—then ceded more time on the descent to the stage finish in Valloire. And after losing even more time at the finish after Pogačar and others scooped up the bonus seconds at the end of the stage, Vingegaard–who entered the day with the same overall time as the Slovenian–ended it 50 seconds behind him.
In any other year, losing nearly a minute to his closest rival–someone who won back-to-back Tours in 2020 and 2021 and finished second in 2022 and 2023–would be a terrible outcome for Vingegaard just four days into the Tour de France. But this year–considering that Vingegaard came into the race incredibly under-trained and that there are no more hard mountain stages for at least another week–it’s an incredibly positive sign.
Vingegaard will likely get stronger as the race progresses, and while it’s far too soon to speculate as to whether he can actually win his third Tour de France this summer, he’s definitely a top contender–and the rider who Pogačar and his teammates fear the most. And for good reason: Vingegaard put minutes into Pogačar during the third week of last year’s Tour de France, after the two entered the second rest day just ten seconds apart on the Tour’s General Classification.
But while the early signs were encouraging for Vingegaard, they weren’t for his teammates. Vingegaard wasn’t the only rider Visma-Lease a Bike to have his Tour de France preparation derailed by injuries. Two of the Dane’s key domestiques, Dutchman Steven Kruijswijk and Dylan van Baarle, were injured in a crash at the Critérium du Dauphiné in early-June and were immediately ruled-out for the Tour. Then American Sepp Kuss, perhaps the most important rider on each of Visma’s Tour de France-winning squads in 2022 and 2023, was ruled out of the Tour after testing positive for COVID-19.
So the team was forced to start the Tour with a roster far weaker than the team it had hoped to bring to the race–and it showed on Stage 4. While Pogačar had four teammates pacing him up the upper slopes of the Galibier, Vingegaard was isolated. American Matteo Jorgenson stayed with the Dane as long as he could, but he was forced to drop off the back of the bunch far too early, leaving Vingegaard–and the Tour’s other favorites–alone to square off against Pogačar and two of his teammates, teammates who, by the way, would be GC leaders on just about any other team in the Tour.
Assuming Vingegaard gets stronger as the race progresses, if he’s to have any chance of winning the race, his team will need to as well. Guys like Belgium’s Wout van Aert and Tiesj Benoot and France’s Chrisophe Laporte–who usually excel in single-day Classics–will need to last longer than they’re usually asked to in the mountains. The Netherlands’ Wilco Kelderman and Slovenia’s Jan Tratnik will have to be ready to set the pace when the others pull-off. And Jorgenson, who’s never raced the Tour de France as a GC rider, will need to assume the role vacated by Kuss as Vingegaard’s top mountain lieutenant. Kuss certainly would have been with Vingegaard near the top of the Galibier at the end of Stage 4; Jorgenson needs to be there as well.
Vingegaard has clearly come to the Tour ready to perform at a level well beyond what everyone expected him to. If he’s to have any chance of winning a third Tour de France this year, his teammates will need to do the same. They certainly have the talent to do so–and more than enough time to do it. If they do, the team has a chance to pull-off one of the greatest comebacks in cycling history, and in doing so turn around the team’s nightmarish start to the 2024 season.
Since getting hooked on pro cycling while watching Lance Armstrong win the 1993 U.S. Pro Championship in Philadelphia, longtime Bicycling contributor Whit Yost has raced on Belgian cobbles, helped build a European pro team, and piloted that team from Malaysia to Mont Ventoux as an assistant director sportif. These days, he lives with his wife and son in Pennsylvania, spending his days serving as an assistant middle school principal and his nights playing Dungeons & Dragons.
