With just six stages remaining in the 111th edition of the Tour de France, it would appear that Tadej Pogačar’s lead is, at this point, unimpeachable.
But, as invincible as Pogačar looks heading into the race’s third week, it’s impossible to count anyone out just yet, least of all reigning two-time champion Jonas Vingegaard. There are simply too many climbs, variables, and potential moments that could impact this race.
“I think there’s still a chance (to win),” Vingegaard said after finishing Sunday’s Stage 15 second and ceding more time to the Pogačar. “The Tour de France is still not finished, and sometimes in the past two years, Tadej has had a bad day. We have to hope that can still happen.”
So, how can Vingegaard claw his way back to Pogačar? How can he make up the three minutes and nine seconds he currently sits behind the maillot jaune?
Before we go into all that, let’s take a moment to recognize what an absolutely stunning performance Vingegaard has put on over the first two weeks of the Tour. Afterall, this is a man who, just a few weeks ago, wasn’t even sure he’d race the Grand Boucle.
Over the last two weeks, the twenty-seven-year-old Dane has vanquished one-hundred-and-seventy-and-some of the best, fastest, and strongest bike racers on Earth, just ten weeks shy of a crash that hospitalized him for twelve days. He missed out on training in those days, and when he returned to the bike, he had to endure and overcome what had to have been major setbacks to his fitness.
The Tour de France awards the most combative rider. Maybe, after watching Vingegaard’s performance this year, it should be considered awarding him the most courageous. But courage alone doesn’t win Grand Tours.
And so, is there any chance for Vingegaard to erase Pogačar’s lead to recapture a third straight Yellow Jersey?
Let’s ignore the things mostly out of racers’ control—crashes, illness, and mechanicals—and focus on a pair of things Vingegaard can do if he wants to win his third straight Tour de France.
One thing we’ve seen over the last three Tours de France is the fact that there is perhaps no one better at long, sustained climbs than Jonas Vingegaard. It was beautifully exhibited on Stage 11 when Pogačar launched one of his typical attacks. It was fast and violent, and there was a gap before any of us knew it. But slowly, as the kilometers ticked down, Vingegaard closed the gap by racing his own race, keeping with his steady pace, and eventually caught Pogačar to win the stage.
Perhaps then, Vingegaard needs to ride more offensively, attack lower on the slopes in the coming climbs, put the heat on Pogačar, and dare him to stick on his wheel over the course of long, protracted climbs.
Perhaps Tadej can continue to respond with ease. But how will Jonas know unless he tries?
Stages 19 and 20 consist of nine thousand meters of climbing, so there will be plenty of opportunities for those long, burning climbs that suit Vingegaard well.
Something we haven’t seen much of this summer is a swarm of Killer Bees. That is, Vingegaard’s Visma-Lease a Bike teammates working in concert to isolate and attack Pogačar on some of the race’s sustained climbs.
It was one of the essential tools the team used in the last two Tours de France, but for some reason, we’ve often seen Vingegaard alone on climbs or perhaps only with Matteo Jorgenson to help pull him up the mountains.
Heading into the race, it was clear that Vinegaard and Visma were going to lean hard into Sepp Kuss’ unparalleled talents as one of the world’s best climbers. In fact, it was one of the things many of us in the media pointed to when asked if Vingegaard had a chance in this year’s Tour. “Well, he does have Sepp working for him,” we told one another. But, just a few days before the start of this year’s Tour, it was announced that Kuss wouldn’t start the race, as he was recovering from Covid-19.
Of course, the absence of the Eagle of Durango in this year’s race isn’t helping Vingegaard. But the race goes on, regardless of abandonments, and Visma needs to do a better supporting their leader.
Pogačar, on the other hand, seems to be surrounded by the white jerseys and yellow helmets of his UAE Team Emirates teammates on each and every climb.
Visma went on a major offensive for the first time on Sunday’s Stage 15, as the team set a blistering pace early in the day, and Jonas basically pulled Tadej up the Plateau de Beille. But just because it didn’t work Sunday doesn’t mean Visma shouldn’t keep at it.
In 2023, Jumbo-Visma cracked Pogačar by keeping him under relentless pressure. If there’s any chance of getting their man back in yellow, they need to figure out how to do the same over the next six stages. And, as Vingegaard mentioned, there’s also the hope for Pog to have a bad day. But at this point, that feels more like wishful thinking.
As the Tour de France enters its final week, Jonas Vingegaard faces a monumental challenge. The reigning champion is determined, resilient, and undoubtedly courageous, but the road ahead is steep and fraught with obstacles. Whether it’s through strategic attacks, team support, or sheer determination, thr Dane must tap into every resource and skill to close the gap on Tadej Pogačar.
Michael Venutolo-Mantovani is a writer and musician based in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. He loves road and track cycling, likes gravel riding, and can often be found trying to avoid crashing his mountain bike.
