As back-to-back Super Bowl champions and with three titles in the last five seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs aren't really competing with teams in the AFC West; they're in a race against the ghosts of Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots dynasty.
Kansas City's eight consecutive division titles stand alone as the second-longest division title winning streak in NFL history behind only the Patriots record run of 11 division crowns in a row (2009-2019). The Chiefs' streak predates three-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes, as it began in the last two seasons of Alex Smith's run as the Kansas City quarterback in 2016 and 2017, both Pro Bowl campaigns.
Given the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders are starting over with new regimes -- in the front office and with on the coaching staff -- and the Denver Broncos quarterback room consists of 2024 NFL Draft 12th overall pick quarterback Bo Nix, Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham, it's much more likely than not that the Chiefs run their streak to nine in 2024. They have -250 odds to take home first place in the AFC West once again, according to Caesars Sportsbook, making them the biggest first-place betting odds for any team in any NFL division.
With all that in mind, let's take a look at four reasons why the Chiefs might, somehow, NOT win the AFC West in 2024, which, to be clear, is highly unlikely since Mahomes has proven he can make up for almost any deficiency Kansas City may have.
Internal reasons the Chiefs may not win the AFC West in 2024
1. TE Travis Kelce's age begins to show even more and no one else steps in the passing game
Travis Kelce's seven season streak of 1,000-yard receiving seasons came to an end in 2023, with the nine-time Pro Bowl tight end finishing with under 1,000 yards (984) for the first time since 2015, when he was 26 and earned his first Pro Bowl nod. He turns 35 years old on Oct. 5, and he signed a restructured two-year, $34.3 million contract that wraps up after the 2025 season.
The end of the legendary 35-year-old's career is coming around the corner, and he seems to know it with tears welling in his eyes in the video message the Chiefs posted of him after he signed the contract.
Chiefs forever 🫶 Tell ‘em, @tkelce! pic.twitter.com/88VtkjdPct
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) April 29, 2024
Kelce's 10.6 yards per catch in 2023 was the lowest of his career, and if he continues to be on the decline in the upcoming season, the Chiefs will likely need someone else to take a big step forward to mitigate the drop off that comes with aging into your mid-thirties in the NFL. The Chiefs' top returning target outside of Kelce is 2023 second-round wide receiver Rashee Rice; his seven receiving touchdowns led the team while he ranked second in both catches (79 to 93) and receiving yards (938 to 984) behind Kelce.
The problem with Rice is he is expected to receive a multi-game suspension to begin the 2024 season for his part in a multi-vehicle crash in Dallas this offseason. If his suspension is lengthy and/or he doesn't have the same juice in 2024 because of the extended layoff, that could limit his impact. The next two options are a rookie (28th overall pick receiver Xavier Worthy, whose 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine is a new league record) and free agent signee Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, who has just one 1,000-yard receiving season in five years, plus his occasional proclivity for drops is well known.
Kansas City's wide receiver room as a whole already had a down year despite the Super Bowl win over the San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs receivers had the most drops (28) and the highest drop rate (12%) in the NFL, Mahomes had the worst touchdown to interception ratio (1-6) targeting wide receivers 10 or more yards downfield in the entire league, and Mahomes averaged a career-low 7.7 yards per pass attempt targeting wide receivers (20th in the NFL).
If Rice, Worthy or Brown can't take their respective games to higher levels in 2024, the Chiefs passing game could suffer even more as Kelce continues to age.
2. Kansas City's offensive line deficiencies become more pronounced
Kansas City's offensive line wasn't stellar last season. Its 36.4% quarterback pressure rate allowed ranked in the bottom half of the league last season (20th). Most of that pressure allowed came when defenses sent standard four-man pass rushes at the Chiefs because they were blitzed on just 21.5% of their quarterback dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the NFL behind only the Miami Dolphins (20.6% blitz rate faced on quarterback dropbacks). That's a problem because it shows their offensive line can have issues even though they typically aren't outmanned in terms of pass rushers versus pass blockers.
The Chiefs did only surrender 28 sacks last season, the second-fewest in the NFL behind only the Buffalo Bills' 24, but there are many times a quarterback can have a greater impact on that metric than his offensive line. Mahomes' mobility is a great illustration of this point.
Right tackle Jawaan Taylor, the former Jacksonville Jaguar who signed a four-year, $80 million deal with Kansas City last season, failed to live up to his contract in 2023. He allowed 44 quarterback pressures, the eighth-most in the NFL, and Taylor was the most penalized player in the league last season with 17 accepted penalties against him. If his play continues to slide, the Chiefs might have a significant problem. They did draft BYU second-team All-Big 12 offensive tackle Kingsley Suamataia with their 2024 second-round pick, but it's unclear if he could step in and start right away.
More offensive line woes in a division that contains Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins could potentially evolve into something problematic.
3. Losing CB L'Jarius Sneed in free agency hurts defense more than expected
Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed was as solid as it gets for the Chiefs in 2023. His 4.7 yards yards per pass attempt allowed last season were the fewest in the league among the 53 players with at least 75 passes thrown their way. Sneed's 48.3% completion percentage allowed also ranked as the third-lowest in the league among the 53 with at least 75 passes thrown against them in coverage.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a tall task ahead of him to replace that top-tier production in 2024 after Sneed signed a four-year, $76.4 million contract with the Tennessee Titans this offseason. His spot opposite first-team All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie is up for grabs between three third-year defensive backs: Nazeeh Johnson (2022 seventh-round pick), Jaylen Watson (2022 seventh-round pick) and Joshua Williams (2022 fourth-round pick) -- all of whom were Day 3 draft picks and have a combined 14 career starts between the three of them.
If they struggle to pick up the slack in Sneed's absence, the Chiefs' pass defense could become noticeably weaker.
External reason the Chiefs may not win the AFC West in 2024
Chargers, QB Justin Herbert thrive under Jim Harbaugh with more balance all around
Jim Harbaugh returns to the NFL head-coaching ranks after a nine-season stint as the Michigan Wolverines head coach, and he left them with a 15-0 record and the 2023 College Football Playoff national championship. The other time Harbaugh made the leap from college coaching to the pros -- from Stanford to the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 -- his squad improved from going 6-10 without him in 2010 to 13-3 and a spot in the NFC Championship game in his first season in 2011.
Upon his NFL return, Harbaugh, a former NFL quarterback himself, is gifted with a historically prolific young passer in Justin Herbert. Herbert has the most completions (1,613) and passing yards (17,223) in NFL history through a player's first four seasons, and his 114 career passing touchdowns are tied for the second-most in a player's first four seasons with Mahomes, trailing only Hall of Famer Dan Marino's 142 from 1983 to 1986.
Los Angeles' defense in 2023 was its biggest issue: it allowed a league-most 49 plays of 25 or more yards, and they ranked bottom five or worse in total yards per game (362.9, 28th) and passing yards per game (249.8, 30th). Harbaugh brought his Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter with him to the Chargers in the same capacity, and his Wolverines defense led college football in scoring defense (10.4 points per game) and total defense (157.0 total yards per game). The Chargers have Pro Bowl level talent on their defense with edge rushers Khalil Mack (eight Pro Bowls) and Joey Bosa (four Pro Bowls) plus safety Derwin James Jr. (three Pro Bowls).
If the Chargers defense can raise its level, a single-season turnaround from the team's 5-12 record in 2023 isn't out of the question. Eight of its 12 losses last season were by one score, and they were 0-7 in games decided by three points or less in 2023. Harbaugh went an NFL-best 20-8-1 (.707 win percentage) with the 49ers in one-score games from 2011-2014.
With better defense, game management and more offensive balance -- Harbaugh hired his former 49ers offensive coordinator and his brother's former Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman, famous for establishing dominant rushing offenses -- Los Angeles might have a formula to knock off the Chiefs for AFC West supremacy. That is if it experiences its best-case scenario while Kansas City experiences its worst-case scenario in 2024.
