The World Ahead | Europe in 2024
How the war in Ukraine is changing the Caucasus
Turkey and Azerbaijan hope to benefit from Russia’s betrayal of Armenia
![A protester wearing the Armenian national flag stands in front of Russian peacekeepers blocking a road in Nagorno-Karabakh](https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1424,quality=80,format=auto/content-assets/images/20231118_TWEUP503.jpg)
By Arkady Ostrovsky
Compared with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or the horrors of Hamas’s attack on Israel and the ensuing conflict, the one-day war waged in September 2023 by Azerbaijan against its ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh may seem like a blip. This final episode in a long cycle of violence between Azerbaijan and Armenia gave Azerbaijan control of a region that has wished to be separate from it since before the Soviet collapse, and prompted the exodus of most of the Armenian population.
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This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2024 under the headline “Russia’s waning influence”