Appendix I - Comparisons With International Energy Agency and IEO2006 Projections 

Comparisons with IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2006 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides projections comparable with those in IEO2007 in its World Energy Outlook 2006. Because IEA releases projections only for the years 2015 and 2030, two time periods are compared here—2004 to 2015 and 2015 to 2030. 

In the 2004 to 2015 projection period, both IEO2007 and IEA expect world energy demand to increase by an average of 2.1 percent per year (Table I1). Not surprisingly, both outlooks project much faster growth in energy demand among the non-OECD nations than in the OECD, with non-OECD energy use growing three times as rapidly. There are, however, some regional differences. IEA’s expectations for demand growth in OECD Asia, for instance, are much higher than those in IEO2007, and the projected 1.4-percent annual growth rate projected by IEA for the region exceeds the 1.3-percent rate in the IEO2007 high economic growth case. 

In the non-OECD regions, both outlooks have similar projections for growth in Europe and Eurasia. IEO2007 projects 1.6-percent average annual growth in energy use between 2004 and 2015, and IEA projects 1.4-percent annual growth. IEA projects much slower growth than IEO2007 over the 2004 to 2015 period for China and other non-OECD Asia, as well as for Africa and Central and South America. In each case, IEA’s projected growth rates are lower than those in the IEO2007 low economic growth case. On the other hand, IEA’s projected 4.2-percent annual growth in Middle Eastern energy use over the same period is much higher than the projection of 3.1 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case and, in fact, exceeds the projected growth rate in the IEO2007 high macroeconomic growth case. 

In the later years of the projections, IEO2007 and IEA generally agree, with worldwide energy demand growing by 1.5 percent per year between 2015 and 2030 in the IEO2007 reference case and by 1.3 percent per year in the IEA projection (Table I2). Both outlooks anticipate similar regional growth over the 2015 to 2030 period. The largest regional difference between the two projections—and the only instance in which IEA regional growth projections fall outside the range defined by the IEO2007 low and high macroeconomic growth cases—is for China. IEA anticipates that China’s energy demand growth will slow to 2.0 percent per year for the final 15 years of the outlook, whereas the IEO2007 reference case expects that China will maintain a 2.7-percent annual growth rate in energy demand through the end of the projection period. The IEA growth projection for energy use in China from 2015 to 2030 is lower than the IEO2007 low macroeconomic growth case projection. 

The projections vary not only with respect to levels of total energy demand but also with respect to the mix of primary energy inputs. In the 2004 to 2015 period, IEA expects slightly higher growth in fossil fuel use and slower growth in the use of non-fossil fuels than does IEO2007 (Table I3). For both renewables and nuclear power consumption, the growth rates projected by IEA are slower than those in the IEO2007 low economic growth case. For renewables, the differences may be explained by the fact that IEA renewables projections include estimates for traditional, non-marketed biomass and the IEO2007 projections do not. Traditional biomass is a substantial portion of the renewable energy base and is not expected, in most regions, to expand as nations migrate away from non-marketed to commercial energy use over the projection period—in contrast to hydroelectric power and other marketed renewable energy sources captured in the IEO2007 projection. 

For nuclear power, there are only small differences in projected growth rates between the IEO2007 high macroeconomic growth and reference cases and no difference between the reference case and the low macroeconomic growth case. This is because the projections include only a limited number of plants, which are already planned or under construction, with expected completion dates before 2015 that analysts largely agree are achievable. 

For the period from 2015 to 2030, IEO2007 and IEA are largely in agreement. The only exception is nuclear power, for which the IEA growth projection falls below that in the IEO2007 low macroeconomic growth case (Table I4). IEA projects that nuclear power expansion will slow from the annual growth rate of 1.2 percent projected for relative to the 2004 to 2015 period to 0.4 percent for the 2015 to 2030 period. IEO2007 projects increases in world nuclear power use averaging 1.3 percent per year from 2015 to 2030, compared with 1.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2015. 

Comparisons With IEO2006 

The IEO2007 outlook for total energy consumption in 2015 is largely the same as the outlook in IEO2006. In IEO2007 total marketed energy consumption in 2015 is projected to be 559 quadrillion Btu, as compared with 563 quadrillion Btu in IEO2006 (Table I5). There are, however, some regional differences between the two IEOs. In IEO2007, total energy consumption for the OECD region in 2030 is about 5 quadrillion Btu lower than was projected in IEO2006. Most (3 quadrillion Btu) of the difference is attributed to lower demand in North America (largely, the United States), where the projection for average annual GDP growth from 2003 to 2015 is 0.2 percentage points lower in IEO2007 than was projected in IEO2006. 

For the non-OECD region, the largest differences between the projections for 2015 in IEO2007 and IEO2006 are found in two regions—China and non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. In IEO2007, China’s projected total energy use in 2015 is 5 quadrillion Btu higher than projected in IEO2006. IEO2007 assumes much more rapid economic growth for China between 2003 and 2015 than was assumed in IEO2006—8.1 percent per year versus 7.0 percent per year. A 10-percent increase in China’s GDP between 2003 and 2004 helped to spur a 20-percent increase in its energy use, a development that was not anticipated in the IEO2006 projection, which was based on historical data series that ended in 2003. 

For non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, the IEO2007 reference case projects total energy consumption in 2015 that is 4 quadrillion Btu lower than projected in IEO2006. Nearly all of the difference resulted from a reassessment of energy demand in the region’s industrial sector. For example, in the IEO2006 reference case, demand for electric power in the industrial sector was projected to increase by an average of 4.3 percent per year from 2003 to 2015; in IEO2007, the corresponding projection is for a more moderate growth rate of 2.4 percent per year. EIA believes that the lower rate is more consistent with the annual increases seen in the region’s industrial electricity consumption since 1998 (when industrial sector electricity use stopped declining after the fall of the Soviet Union and began to recover), which have averaged about 2.5 percent per year.²⁰ 

The near-term differences between the IEO2007 and IEO2006 projections are carried through to 2030. The IEO2007 reference case projection for total energy use worlwide in 2030 is 20 quadrillion Btu (about 3 percent) lower than the IEO2006 projection. Again, the largest regional differences between the 2030 projections are for China and non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. In the IEO2007 reference case, China’s GDP is projected to increase at an average rate of 6.6 percent per year between 2003 and 2030, 0.6 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate projected for China in IEO2006. As a result, the reference case projection for China’s total energy use in 2030 is 6 quadrillion Btu (5 percent) higher in IEO2007 than was projected in IEO2006. For non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, total projected energy consumption in 2030 is 7 quadrillion Btu lower in IEO2007 than it was in IEO2006, largely as a result of EIA’s reassessment of the potential for growth in the industrial sector. 

Along with regional differences between the IEO2007 and IEO2006 projections, there are some differences between the two projections in the mix of energy resources expected to be consumed (Table I6). The projections for worldwide consumption of petroleum and other liquids consumption are virtually the same throughout the projections, but there are pronounced differences in the other fuel outlooks. In IEO2007, the potential for nuclear power is viewed with more optimism than it was in IEO2006. As a result, the projection for nuclear power consumption in 2015 is 5 percent higher in IEO2007 than in IEO2006, and the difference between the two projections increases to 14 percent in 2030. 

With the higher projection for nuclear power in the IEO2007 reference case, projections for consumption of  natural gas and renewables in the electric power sector are lower throughout the period from 2004 to 2030. The impact on renewable energy sources is larger: total renewable energy use is 12 percent lower in 2015 and 14 percent lower in 2030 in the IEO2007 projections than in IEO2006. The difference is somewhat inflated, however, because consumption of biofuels in the IEO2007 projections is included with petroleum and other liquids consumption, whereas it was included with renewable energy consumption in IEO2006. Removing the transportation biofuels portion of renewable energy consumption from the IEO2006 projections reduces the difference to about 10 percent in both 2015 and 2030. 

Notes and Sources
Appendix I Tables