The men's college basketball offseason is filled with deadlines. There was the NBA draft early-entry deadline in late April, the closing of the undergraduate transfer portal last week and coming up is the NBA draft early-entry withdrawal deadline -- while still maintaining college eligibility -- May 31.
More than 170 college players filed their names as early-entry candidates into the 2023 NBA draft. That doesn't include the players without any remaining college eligibility, or the 48 international players hoping to be selected to an NBA roster June 22.
It doesn't take a calculus whiz to figure out that not all of those players will fit into a 58-player draft. As a result, we should see a deluge of players withdraw their names before the May 31 deadline -- some of whom will return for another season in college basketball.
Which programs are currently most impacted by their players' decisions to stay for another season or leave for another opportunity?
Purdue Boilermakers
Player to watch: Zach Edey
We have to start with the reigning consensus National Player of the Year, a player who can single-handedly take Purdue from a top-20 team to a Final Four contender. Edey led the Boilermakers to Big Ten regular-season and conference tournament championships last season en route to a 1-seed -- but he's only projected as a late second-round pick in the draft. Another year in West Lafayette would be huge for Matt Painter's program.
Creighton Bluejays
Players to watch: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Trey Alexander
Greg McDermott's team has had an up-and-down offseason, getting back Baylor Scheierman and landing Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth but losing Ryan Nembhard and Arthur Kaluma to the portal. Now, the Bluejays need Kalkbrenner and Alexander to withdraw. Both were invited to the NBA draft combine this week, although only Kalkbrenner is projected to be drafted.
Kentucky Wildcats
Players to watch: Oscar Tshiebwe, Antonio Reeves, Chris Livingston
There seems to be more optimism around Tshiebwe and Reeves returning to Lexington, but Livingston isn't a lock to be drafted, either. Tshiebwe, who won Player of the Year in 2022, is a borderline draft pick and could make more money via name, image and likeness (NIL) deals in college, while Reeves finished the 2022-23 season on a tear and will have more perimeter help this season. If they leave, John Calipari's roster will be completely bereft of experience.
UConn Huskies
Players to watch: Andre Jackson Jr., Tristen Newton
The Huskies were the No. 1 team in our initial Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings at the buzzer of the national championship game, but the defending champs are still awaiting word from two of their starters. Newton isn't projected to be drafted and should return, but Jackson might have played himself into being a first-round pick after an outstanding NCAA tournament. If he returns, UConn is a title threat once again.
Marquette Golden Eagles
Player to watch: Olivier-Maxence Prosper
A legitimate candidate to open 2023-24 at No. 1, Marquette could bring back everyone of significance from last season's Big East championship squad -- if Maxence Prosper returns. He's currently considered a borderline second-round selection in ESPN's rankings, but someone with his size and shooting potential can also be intriguing for a number of teams. Could he boost his stock at the Combine and leave Shaka Smart's program?
Alabama Crimson Tide
Players to watch: Charles Bediako, Mark Sears, Jahvon Quinerly
Nate Oats watched as five players entered the NBA draft following the end of 2022-23. Brandon Miller and Noah Clowney are definitely gone, but Bediako, Sears and Quinerly could all return. Bediako and Sears should spend another year in Tuscaloosa, but Quinerly turns 25 in November and could opt to start his professional career. With all three, though, the Tide would be an SEC title threat come November.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Players to watch: Jordan Walsh, Davonte Davis
Arkansas might be a top-10 team with or without either player -- and the Razorbacks are also still in play for top uncommitted senior Ron Holland. But both Walsh and Davis returning would provide some continuity from last season, and keep Eric Musselman from having to start at least three transfers. Davis isn't going to be drafted, but Walsh is a projected late second-rounder and could look to take his chances.
UCLA Bruins
Player to watch: Adem Bona
After last week's departures of Mac Etienne and Abramo Canka, UCLA's roster looks light on depth. It will take an even bigger hit if Bona opts to remain in the draft. There were portal rumors swirling around him for weeks, but he didn't enter before the deadline. The question now is whether he will return to Westwood or turn pro. He's projected as a second-round pick, but another college season with a bigger offensive role could boost his stock.
Kansas State Wildcats
Player to watch: Keyontae Johnson
Jerome Tang's team also saw Nae'Qwan Tomlin enter his name into the NBA draft, but Johnson holds the keys to Kansas State's fate next season. Markquis Nowell is already out the door, which puts more pressure on Johnson offensively. He's projected as a second-round pick, but he also would open the season as a preseason All-American should he opt to return to Manhattan.
Virginia Cavaliers
Player to watch: Reece Beekman
Tony Bennett is already losing his top three scorers from last season, as well as two players who split a starting spot in the frontcourt -- meaning Beekman would nearly reset Virginia's roster if he decided to leave. He's ranked in the 50s at ESPN right now, so he's a borderline selection. Without him, Bennett will rely almost entirely on freshmen and incoming transfers, as well as returnee Isaac McKneely.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Players to watch: Terrence Shannon Jr., Coleman Hawkins
From Brad Underwood's perspective, Shannon Jr.'s is likely the more important decision, given his status as the team's leading scorer and one of the Big Ten's best players. But both he and Hawkins are projected as second-round selections right now, and need strong showings at this week's combine. If both leave, the Fighting Illini will lean heavily on a trio of transfers, and returnee Dain Dainja.
Missouri Tigers
Player to watch: Kobe Brown
After an impressive first season for Dennis Gates in Columbia, what does he have in store for his second? Much of that will come down to Brown's NBA decision. He had a terrific senior season for the Tigers, playing himself into second-round consideration. But he will be one of the best players in the SEC should he return. He would also be among the oldest -- he'll turn 24 midway through the season.
Texas Longhorns
Player to watch: Tyrese Hunter, Dillon Mitchell
Texas is still a couple of players short of being a preseason top-25 team in Rodney Terry's first full season at the helm, but could get there if Hunter and Mitchell decide to return. Hunter should come back for a season next to Max Abmas in the backcourt, while Mitchell didn't have a great first season in Austin but still finds himself just outside the first round in ESPN's rankings. Including them, Terry would then have a very solid top six guys.
Auburn Tigers
Players to watch: Johni Broome, Jaylin Williams
Right now, we have Auburn on the outside looking in at the Way-Too-Early Top 25 -- and the Tigers would move into the rankings with both Williams and Broome returning. Williams should, but Broome's is a more intriguing case. He was one of the most impressive players at the G League Elite Camp, earning an invite to the combine. He isn't currently ranked in ESPN's top 100, but he might be playing himself into consideration.
Other decisions worth monitoring: Jamal Shead, Houston Cougars; Alijah Martin and Johnell Davis, FAU Owls; Jalen Bridges, Baylor Bears; Jaden Akins and AJ Hoggard, Michigan State Spartans; Lamont Butler and Jaedon LeDee, San Diego State Aztecs; Nijel Pack and Norchad Omier, Miami Hurricanes; Pelle Larsson, Arizona Wildcats; Tristan da Silva, Colorado Buffaloes; Cliff Omoruyi and Paul Mulcahy, Rutgers Scarlet Knights; Judah Mintz, Syracuse Orange; Damion Baugh and Emanuel Miller, TCU Horned Frogs