My colleague Bill Barnwell has made an annual preseason tradition out of successfully predicting NFL teams heading in a different direction by virtue of their records not matching the underlying level of performance.
Because rosters turn over more quickly and individual players are more important, the same task is a little trickier in the NBA. For example, the Portland Trail Blazers have several factors pointing up in 2023-24, but those are outweighed by the possibility of trading Damian Lillard and moving toward a rebuild around young guards Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe.
Still, there are some factors we can look at to determine which teams are likely to see their records change by virtue of better or worse fortune. In particular, I've focused on three aspects with a history of predicting improvement or decline the following season: expected wins based on points scored and allowed, games missed due to injury and opponent 3-point percentage.
With those stats in mind, let's look at four teams likely headed up in the standings and three that might win fewer games than they did in 2022-23.
Most likely to improve
Detroit Pistons
2022-23 record: 17-65
Admittedly, picking the team with the NBA's worst record to improve is a bit of a slam dunk. Of teams this century with fewer than 20 wins (or the equivalent in seasons shorter than 82 games), 87.5% have won a higher percentage the following season. Still, the underlying results suggest Detroit wasn't actually the league's weakest squad in 2022-23, portending bigger improvement than usual for a team that landed the No. 5 draft pick (Ausar Thompson) for its trouble. The Pistons were outscored by 8.2 points per game, a poor mark but far better than that of the San Antonio Spurs (minus-10.1), who went 22-60. Typically, we'd expect a team with Detroit's points scored and allowed to finish with 21 wins instead of 17. The Pistons' 295 games lost to injury or non-COVID-19 illness were second most in the league behind Portland (330), and that's before we consider that 72 of those games came from Cade Cunningham, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 draft. A healthy Cunningham and better luck converting points into wins should produce improvement despite a relatively quiet offseason for Detroit.
Houston Rockets
2022-23 record: 22-60
It's easy to write off hot-shooting opponents as a product of poor defense, but recent history suggests it's one of the surest indicators that a team is likely to improve the following season by virtue of regression to the mean. Of the 121 teams this century that have seen opponents shoot at least 3% better than league average (equivalent to 37% in 2022-23), a whopping 72% have posted a better winning percentage the next year.
Three lowly teams -- Houston, Portland and San Antonio -- saw opponents shoot the best from 3-point range against them last season. As noted, the Blazers would be an obvious choice for this list if not for their potential pivot, while the Spurs' poor fortune with 3-point defense was offset by outperforming their point differential. That leaves the Rockets as the pick, even if their offseason additions of Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet are more likely sources of improvement.
Indiana Pacers
2022-23 record: 35-47
At 37% opponent 3-point shooting, the Pacers were just on the wrong side of the line last season. The Pacers still improved by 10 wins anyway thanks to a breakthrough season from first-time All-Star Tyrese Haliburton.
Although Indiana's games lost to injury were fairly average, Haliburton played just eight times after the All-Star break due to a variety of ailments that didn't prevent him from playing in the FIBA World Cup this summer. The Pacers were a .500 team with Haliburton in the lineup and 7-19 (.269) without him, suggesting they could stay in the play-in mix this campaign if they're less conservative with his availability.
Toronto Raptors
2022-23 record: 41-41
Based solely on these factors, no team is better positioned to improve than the Raptors. First off, Toronto outscored opponents by 1.5 points per game, the sixth-best point differential in the Eastern Conference, while finishing with the East's ninth-best record. Even that total points allowed came despite opponents hitting 37% of their 3s, up from 35% the previous campaign, when the Raptors went 48-34.
The key question here is whether better fortune will outweigh Toronto losing VanVleet as an unrestricted free agent and replacing him with Dennis Schroder on a more affordable contract. My preliminary stats-based projections for the upcoming season suggest the Raptors might still come out ahead, albeit not as the serious top-six contenders they could have been with VanVleet's return.
Most likely to decline
Denver Nuggets
2022-23 record: 53-29
After playing the previous two postseasons without injured guard Jamal Murray, the Nuggets were owed some good fortune in 2022-23 and got it en route to a championship. Denver went 17-8 (.680) in games decided by five points or fewer, the league's second-best winning percentage. Based on points scored and allowed, we'd have expected the Nuggets to win 49 or 50 games. And that's despite opponents hitting just 34% of their 3-point attempts, third lowest in the NBA behind the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Lakers.
Fans in Denver would rightfully point out, in part because of those factors, that the Nuggets took their foot off the gas late in the season. After beating the Memphis Grizzlies in early March to all but lock up the top spot in the Western Conference, Denver went 8-10 the rest of the way. Through that point, the Nuggets' points scored and allowed were typical of a 53-win team, exactly the number of victories they ended up with.
It's also worth noting that these critiques apply only to the regular season. Denver outscored opponents by a dominant 8.3 points per game during the title run. Still, I think it's reasonable to expect the Nuggets to win slightly fewer games in 2023-24.
Milwaukee Bucks
2022-23 record: 58-24
That one team with a better winning percentage in games decided by five points or fewer than Denver: Milwaukee (9-4, .692), the top seed in the East despite the conference's fourth-best point differential. In fact, the gap of nearly eight wins between the Bucks' expected record (about 50-32) and actual record was second largest this century, behind the 2020-21 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Even at lower levels of overperformance, teams are likely to decline when their actual record exceeds their expectation based on points scored and points allowed. Of the 26 teams this century that have beaten their expectation by at least five wins (or the equivalent), 61.5% have posted a lower winning percentage the following season.
Sacramento Kings
2022-23 record: 48-34
Nobody was owed good fortune more than the Kings, who snapped their 16-season playoff drought with home-court advantage thanks in part to losing a league-low 55 games due to injury or non-COVID illness. In the 15 seasons I've tracked injuries, Sacramento's games lost relative to league average were the seventh lowest of any team in that span. Just one of the six teams ahead of the Kings posted a better winning percentage the following season.
The news isn't all bad for Sacramento, which could benefit from weaker opponent 3-point shooting this season after the Kings' foes hit 37%, the league's sixth-highest mark. With a young core, Sacramento could be able to stave off a significant decline. Still, repeating last year's win total will be a challenge.