College football's Week 3 SP+ rankings takeaways

Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff WriterSep 15, 2024, 09:45 AM ET
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What happens when the top-ranked team in SP+ barely beats a team that just got smoked by a borderline top-40 opponent? That team falls back to the pack by a good amount. Georgia's narrow 13-12 win over Kentucky -- a game that wasn't close because of bad bounces or poor fortune -- means that heading into Week 4 of the 2024 college football season ... we really don't have a No. 1 team.

Ohio State technically earned the honors after beating the hell out of Bye Week, but after Georgia's tumble, the top five teams are all within 1.8 points of each other (and a surging No. 6 Tennessee isn't too far from that pack, either). The Bulldogs are still the only team to rank in the top 10 in offense, defense and special teams, but their offensive rating fell by four points, and strong performances from Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss created quite a logjam at the top.

Below are this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating probably will fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it probably will rise.

Post-Week 3 SP+ Rankings

Team	Rating	Offense	Defense	Spec Tms
1. Ohio St. (2-0)	30.6	36.9 (12)	6.5 (1)	0.2 (32)
2. Alabama (3-0)	30.0	43.8 (3)	13.7 (6)	-0.1 (91)
3. Texas (3-0)	29.1	44.1 (2)	14.8 (9)	-0.2 (103)
4. Ole Miss (3-0)	28.9	44.3 (1)	15.4 (13)	0.1 (48)
5. Georgia (3-0)	28.8	40.2 (9)	11.8 (5)	0.4 (5)
6. Tennessee (3-0)	26.5	41.4 (7)	15.2 (10)	0.2 (27)
7. Missouri (3-0)	22.9	39.2 (10)	16.6 (15)	0.3 (13)
8. Oregon (3-0)	22.6	42.9 (5)	20.4 (32)	0.1 (43)
9. Miami (3-0)	21.3	40.4 (8)	19.1 (22)	0.0 (71)
10. Notre Dame (2-1)	21.3	35.3 (16)	14.3 (8)	0.2 (31)
11. Penn St. (2-0)	20.5	34.2 (24)	13.8 (7)	0.1 (55)
12. Michigan (2-1)	17.4	28.4 (57)	11.3 (4)	0.3 (11)
13. Utah (3-0)	17.2	32.8 (35)	15.3 (11)	-0.3 (112)
14. Kansas St. (3-0)	17.1	36.3 (13)	19.3 (23)	0.2 (39)
15. Oklahoma (3-0)	16.8	32.6 (36)	16.1 (14)	0.3 (12)
16. Louisville (2-0)	16.2	34.2 (25)	17.8 (18)	-0.1 (92)
17. USC (2-0)	16.0	43.3 (4)	27.4 (70)	0.1 (50)
18. LSU (2-1)	15.4	42.8 (6)	27.3 (68)	-0.1 (89)
19. Oklahoma St. (3-0)	15.0	38.8 (11)	24.0 (45)	0.3 (23)
20. Texas A&M (2-1)	14.7	34.3 (23)	19.8 (29)	0.2 (38)
21. Clemson (1-1)	14.5	34.4 (22)	19.9 (31)	0.0 (65)
22. Auburn (2-1)	14.4	33.5 (28)	19.5 (27)	0.3 (9)
23. Iowa (2-1)	12.5	21.1 (98)	8.9 (2)	0.3 (22)
24. Nebraska (3-0)	12.4	23.6 (91)	10.9 (3)	-0.3 (115)
25. Washington (2-1)	11.2	33.2 (32)	22.3 (36)	0.2 (25)
26. UCF (3-0)	11.2	35.3 (17)	24.1 (46)	0.0 (73)
27. TCU (2-1)	10.4	35.4 (15)	25.0 (54)	0.0 (76)
28. Arkansas (2-1)	9.8	35.1 (18)	25.4 (55)	0.2 (42)
29. N. Carolina (3-0)	9.7	32.8 (34)	23.4 (43)	0.3 (10)
30. Kansas (1-2)	9.7	33.9 (26)	24.6 (49)	0.4 (2)
31. Kentucky (1-2)	9.5	28.6 (56)	19.4 (26)	0.4 (4)
32. Minnesota (2-1)	9.4	24.9 (81)	15.3 (12)	-0.1 (83)
33. Iowa St. (2-0)	8.9	27.1 (69)	18.2 (19)	0.0 (72)
34. Florida St. (0-3)	8.8	28.2 (60)	19.8 (28)	0.4 (7)
35. Va. Tech (2-1)	8.5	30.7 (44)	22.3 (35)	0.1 (53)
36. Florida (1-2)	8.4	34.5 (21)	26.6 (62)	0.4 (1)
37. Memphis (3-0)	8.3	36.0 (14)	27.9 (73)	0.2 (36)
38. SMU (2-1)	8.0	31.3 (41)	23.4 (41)	0.0 (67)
39. S. Carolina (2-1)	7.8	28.4 (58)	20.6 (33)	0.1 (57)
40. Indiana (3-0)	7.7	28.7 (55)	21.4 (34)	0.4 (6)
41. Rutgers (2-0)	7.4	25.9 (77)	18.7 (21)	0.2 (35)
42. California (3-0)	7.1	31.5 (39)	24.2 (47)	-0.2 (99)
43. Maryland (2-1)	6.9	26.2 (75)	19.4 (25)	0.1 (47)
44. Baylor (2-1)	6.8	29.0 (53)	22.4 (37)	0.3 (20)
45. Arizona (2-1)	6.3	33.5 (27)	27.4 (71)	0.2 (30)
46. Illinois (3-0)	6.0	25.6 (78)	19.9 (30)	0.2 (33)
47. Boise St. (1-1)	5.9	34.8 (20)	28.9 (79)	-0.1 (79)
48. Wash. St. (3-0)	5.9	33.4 (30)	27.2 (67)	-0.4 (128)
49. Ga. Tech (3-1)	5.9	34.9 (19)	29.1 (82)	0.1 (51)
50. Wisconsin (2-1)	5.7	22.7 (94)	17.1 (16)	0.0 (68)
51. NC St. (2-1)	5.6	28.1 (63)	22.7 (39)	0.2 (34)
52. Duke (3-0)	5.2	24.3 (87)	19.4 (24)	0.3 (21)
53. BYU (3-0)	4.9	29.4 (50)	24.6 (50)	0.1 (46)
54. W. Virginia (1-2)	4.3	33.5 (29)	29.4 (84)	0.2 (29)
55. Texas Tech (2-1)	3.8	33.1 (33)	29.6 (85)	0.3 (14)
56. Pittsburgh (3-0)	3.2	29.2 (51)	26.2 (60)	0.3 (17)
57. Boston Coll. (2-1)	3.2	28.2 (61)	24.7 (51)	-0.3 (110)
58. Liberty (3-0)	2.5	32.1 (37)	29.4 (83)	-0.3 (114)
59. Arizona St. (3-0)	2.3	28.2 (59)	25.8 (56)	-0.1 (95)
60. Louisiana (2-0)	2.3	33.4 (31)	31.2 (94)	0.1 (44)
61. UNLV (3-0)	2.1	32.0 (38)	30.2 (88)	0.3 (15)
62. Toledo (3-0)	1.6	24.7 (83)	22.8 (40)	-0.3 (119)
63. Cincinnati (2-1)	1.5	29.5 (49)	28.0 (74)	0.1 (60)
64. Syracuse (2-0)	1.5	29.1 (52)	27.5 (72)	-0.1 (84)
65. JMU (2-0)	0.9	26.6 (72)	25.8 (57)	0.1 (56)
66. Oregon St. (2-1)	0.8	27.8 (65)	26.7 (64)	-0.4 (126)
67. Fresno St. (2-1)	0.6	29.9 (47)	28.9 (80)	-0.3 (117)
68. Michigan St. (3-0)	0.4	17.9 (112)	17.7 (17)	0.2 (37)
69. Miss. St. (1-2)	0.3	27.4 (68)	27.1 (66)	0.1 (49)
70. Colorado (2-1)	0.1	30.3 (46)	30.1 (86)	-0.2 (97)
71. Vanderbilt (2-1)	-0.4	30.5 (45)	31.2 (96)	0.4 (3)
72. Tulane (1-2)	-0.4	26.6 (71)	27.1 (65)	0.0 (69)
73. UCLA (1-1)	-0.4	24.4 (86)	24.7 (52)	-0.1 (85)
74. Northwestern (2-1)	-1.5	16.9 (118)	18.3 (20)	-0.1 (81)
75. Coastal Caro. (3-0)	-1.6	27.1 (70)	28.7 (77)	0.0 (63)
76. Texas St. (2-1)	-1.8	31.3 (42)	32.9 (107)	-0.2 (102)
77. USF (2-1)	-2.0	30.8 (43)	33.1 (108)	0.2 (26)
78. Houston (1-2)	-2.3	26.2 (76)	28.1 (75)	-0.4 (131)
79. Virginia (2-1)	-2.5	26.2 (74)	28.9 (78)	0.1 (59)
80. App. St. (2-1)	-2.8	29.6 (48)	32.3 (103)	-0.1 (82)
81. Stanford (1-1)	-3.0	27.4 (67)	30.4 (89)	0.0 (64)
82. San Jose St. (3-0)	-3.3	23.6 (92)	26.6 (63)	-0.2 (107)
83. Wake Forest (1-2)	-3.8	24.9 (80)	29.0 (81)	0.3 (24)
84. S. Alabama (1-2)	-4.0	28.7 (54)	32.5 (105)	-0.2 (105)
85. NIU (2-0)	-4.4	19.2 (106)	23.4 (42)	-0.2 (98)
86. WKU (2-1)	-4.8	28.0 (64)	32.4 (104)	-0.3 (123)
87. Army (2-0)	-4.8	21.3 (97)	26.2 (59)	0.2 (40)
88. ECU (2-1)	-4.8	18.7 (111)	23.9 (44)	0.4 (8)
89. Purdue (1-1)	-5.4	24.8 (82)	30.2 (87)	0.0 (66)
90. Navy (2-0)	-6.2	20.3 (100)	26.4 (61)	-0.1 (87)
91. Marshall (1-1)	-7.0	24.0 (89)	30.7 (91)	-0.2 (100)
92. BGSU (1-1)	-7.2	24.6 (84)	32.0 (100)	0.2 (41)
93. Troy (0-3)	-8.0	24.1 (88)	31.8 (97)	-0.3 (109)
94. Miami-OH (0-2)	-8.0	14.7 (126)	22.6 (38)	-0.1 (86)
95. Ga. Southern (2-1)	-8.3	27.5 (66)	36.1 (123)	0.3 (18)
96. Ohio (2-1)	-8.9	15.5 (124)	24.5 (48)	0.1 (52)
97. UAB (1-2)	-9.5	28.1 (62)	37.9 (126)	0.3 (19)
98. UTSA (1-2)	-9.8	23.8 (90)	33.3 (109)	-0.3 (113)
99. N. Texas (2-1)	-10.4	31.3 (40)	41.6 (133)	-0.1 (93)
100. Rice (1-2)	-10.8	22.2 (95)	32.8 (106)	-0.1 (88)
101. SHSU (2-1)	-10.8	20.2 (101)	30.7 (90)	-0.4 (124)
102. Air Force (1-2)	-11.3	14.0 (130)	24.9 (53)	-0.4 (127)
103. Arkansas St. (2-1)	-11.5	25.1 (79)	36.5 (124)	-0.1 (90)
104. Georgia St. (2-1)	-11.5	22.8 (93)	34.0 (111)	-0.3 (118)
105. San Diego St. (1-2)	-11.6	17.2 (117)	28.5 (76)	-0.2 (108)
106. Buffalo (2-1)	-11.8	14.6 (128)	26.2 (58)	-0.2 (104)
107. FAU (1-2)	-12.1	15.5 (122)	27.3 (69)	-0.3 (122)
108. Tulsa (1-2)	-12.7	24.4 (85)	36.8 (125)	-0.3 (111)
109. ODU (0-3)	-13.2	18.8 (109)	31.8 (98)	-0.1 (94)
110. Hawaii (1-2)	-13.5	17.8 (113)	31.2 (95)	0.0 (75)
111. Utah St. (1-2)	-13.5	26.5 (73)	40.0 (132)	0.0 (77)
112. ULM (2-0)	-14.7	17.3 (116)	32.2 (101)	0.1 (45)
113. WMU (1-2)	-14.8	20.9 (99)	35.4 (117)	-0.3 (120)
114. Colorado St. (1-2)	-14.9	19.7 (104)	34.3 (113)	-0.3 (116)
115. EMU (2-1)	-14.9	15.7 (121)	30.8 (92)	0.2 (28)
116. UConn (1-2)	-15.0	17.3 (115)	31.9 (99)	-0.4 (130)
117. CMU (1-2)	-15.1	18.9 (107)	34.1 (112)	0.0 (70)
118. Nevada (1-3)	-15.5	18.7 (110)	33.8 (110)	-0.3 (121)
119. La. Tech (1-1)	-15.7	20.0 (103)	35.7 (120)	0.1 (61)
120. So. Miss (1-2)	-16.3	19.4 (105)	35.3 (116)	-0.4 (132)
121. Wyoming (0-3)	-16.7	14.3 (129)	31.1 (93)	0.1 (62)
122. JSU (0-3)	-16.9	21.5 (96)	38.2 (128)	-0.2 (106)
123. FIU (1-2)	-17.3	18.9 (108)	36.1 (122)	-0.2 (101)
124. NMSU (1-2)	-18.2	16.5 (119)	34.9 (114)	0.3 (16)
125. Charlotte (1-2)	-19.2	16.3 (120)	35.6 (118)	0.1 (54)
126. MTSU (1-2)	-21.1	17.7 (114)	38.7 (130)	0.0 (78)
127. Ball St. (1-1)	-21.2	14.6 (127)	35.7 (119)	-0.2 (96)
128. Akron (1-2)	-21.9	10.3 (133)	32.3 (102)	0.1 (58)
129. New Mexico (0-3)	-22.0	20.1 (102)	41.6 (134)	-0.4 (133)
130. UTEP (0-3)	-22.3	13.2 (131)	35.1 (115)	-0.4 (134)
131. UMass (0-3)	-22.8	15.5 (123)	37.9 (127)	-0.4 (129)
132. Temple (0-3)	-24.4	14.7 (125)	39.0 (131)	-0.1 (80)
133. KSU (0-3)	-26.1	10.0 (134)	36.0 (121)	0.0 (74)
134. Kent St. (0-3)	-26.8	12.3 (132)	38.7 (129)	-0.4 (125)

This week's movers

Let's take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We're looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

South Alabama moved up 7.9 adjusted points per game for not only blowing out FCS' Northwestern State but damn near hanging 100 on them. But while the Jaguars were impressive, here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most after playing FBS competition this week:

Texas Tech: up 4.7 points (from 74th to 55th)
Notre Dame: up 4.5 points (from 15th to 10th)
Temple: up 4.1 points (from 134th to 132nd)
Houston: up 4.0 points (from 91st to 78th)
Buffalo: up 3.7 points (from 121st to 106th)
Indiana: up 3.3 points (from 54th to 40th)
FAU: up 3.2 points (from 119th to 107th)
Fresno State: up 3.0 points (from 78th to 67th)
Toledo: up 2.9 points (from 75th to 62nd)
Virginia Tech: up 2.8 points (from 45th to 35th)

It was a rebound week of sorts: Quite a few teams -- such as Texas Tech, Notre Dame, Temple and Virginia Tech -- offset a really poor performance (or a couple of them) with solid efforts in Week 3 and rebounded back toward where they began the season. Meanwhile, Indiana continues to climb. Honestly, I thought the Hoosiers would rise even more than they did after blowing out UCLA on the road, but rising from a preseason projection of 81st to 40th in just three weeks (when preseason projections are still a large majority of the formula) is awfully impressive work.

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

Purdue: down 8.4 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 58th to 89th)
Ball State: down 5.9 points (from 120th to 127th)
New Mexico State: down 5.7 points (from 108th to 124th)
UCLA: down 4.9 points (from 53rd to 73rd)
Wisconsin: down 4.7 points (from 29th to 50th)
Oregon State: down 4.6 points (from 47th to 66th)
Rice: down 4.2 points (from 92nd to 100th)
North Texas: down 4.2 points (from 90th to 99th)
Mississippi State: down 4.2 points (from 51st to 69th)
Georgia: down 4.0 points (from first to fifth)

Absolutely no surprises from the first nine names on this list, though I guess you could say it's surprising that UCLA and Mississippi State didn't fall even further after utterly dreadful performances. The 10th name on the list, Georgia's, is certainly interesting; the bar is really high when you've got an SP+ rating in the 30s, and winning a statistical toss-up game -- the Bulldogs' postgame win expectancy* in their 13-12 win over Kentucky was just 43.8% -- against a team that got smoked by South Carolina a week ago is going to produce a pretty solid drop.

(* Postgame win expectancy looks at the most predictive stats from a given game -- the same things that go into SP+ -- tosses them into the air and says, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.)

Conference rankings

Here are FBS' 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:

1. SEC: 16.4 average adjusted points per game (36.3 offense, 20.0 defense)
2. Big Ten: 10.0 PPG (27.9 offense, 18.0 defense)
3. Big 12: 7.3 PPG (32.0 offense, 24.8 defense)
4. ACC: 6.4 PPG (30.3 offense, 24.0 defense)
5. Sun Belt: -7.0 PPG (25.4 offense, 32.3 defense)
6. AAC: -8.5 PPG (23.6 offense, 32.1 defense)
7. MWC: -9.5 PPG (22.4 offense, 31.7 defense)
8. MAC: -12.8 PPG (17.2 offense, 29.9 defense)
9. CUSA: -15.1 PPG (19.8 offense, 34.7 defense)

The order remains the same in the power conferences (though the Big 12 and ACC each closed the gap on the SEC and Big Ten by about a point), but there was some movement in the Group of 5 universe. The Sun Belt reclaimed the top spot there, not only benefiting from South Alabama's boost but also getting strong performances and rises out of Appalachian State, Georgia State and Georgia Southern. Meanwhile, thanks to not only Toledo's bump but also solid performances from Ohio, Buffalo, WMU and (because of a ridiculously low bar) Akron, the MAC's average rose the most of any conference.

SP+ projects the College Football Playoff

Here's what the new 12-team CFP would look like based on a combination of updated SP+ win projections and my own guesswork (plus a look at who would win each matchup if chalk prevailed).

First round
12 Memphis at 5 Ole Miss (Rebels by 23.1)

11 Penn State at 6 Alabama (Bama by 12.0)

10 Missouri at 7 Tennessee (Vols by 6.1)

9 Oregon at 8 Georgia (Dawgs by 8.7)

Quarterfinals
Rose Bowl: 1 Ohio State vs. 8 Georgia (Buckeyes by 1.8)

Fiesta Bowl: 4 Kansas State vs. 5 Ole Miss (Rebels by 11.8)

Peach Bowl: 3 Miami vs. 6 Alabama (Tide by 8.7)

Sugar Bowl: 2 Texas vs. 7 Tennessee (Horns by 2.6)

Semifinals
Orange Bowl: 1 Ohio State vs. 5 Ole Miss (Buckeyes by 1.7)

Cotton Bowl: 2 Texas vs. 3 Alabama (Bama by 0.9)

Finals
1 Ohio State vs. 3 Alabama (Buckeyes by 0.6)

What happens when your top-five teams are bunched really tightly together? You get really, really close semifinals and finals. (And a lot of SEC teams for Ohio State to fend off.)