Men's Bracketology: 2025 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 6/18/2024 at 9:30 a.m. ET

There is no longer an offseason in college basketball. With more than 1,800 Division I players changing teams, the majority of programs are dependent on the transfer portal to stock and restock their rosters each spring. The resulting tumult creates wide swings in projected performance for the following year, and we're here to track it for you with monthly bracket updates until opening night on Nov. 4.

Bracket Watch

The disappearance of the Pac-12 from the national landscape will have ramifications across the country and across every sport. But from a Bracketology perspective, there is really only one question: Who will get the Pac-12's NCAA tournament bids? The easy answer would seem to be some combination of the Big Ten and Big 12, each of which is absorbing four former Pac-12 members. Indeed, in this update, the two expanded conferences check in with nine bids apiece. Yet it is the SEC, adding "only" Texas and Oklahoma in this cycle, which tops all conferences with what would be a record 10 NCAA selections. Obviously much can and will change between now and March, but it certainly appears there will be plenty of power in the new Power 4. The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC combine for 35 teams in our bracket -- just over half the projected field -- and the SEC leads the way. It may not surpass the Big 12 as the nation's best conference next year, but it could be the deepest.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Wichita

Cleveland

Denver

Lexington

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Milwaukee

1 Houston
16 Texas Southern - aq/
Morehead St. - aq
8 Florida
9 Wake Forest

Milwaukee

Denver

Seattle

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Lexington

Cleveland

Raleigh

Wichita

EAST (NEWARK)

Providence

Seattle

Raleigh

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Wichita

Cleveland

Denver

Lexington

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Milwaukee

Milwaukee

Denver

Seattle

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Lexington

Cleveland

Raleigh

Wichita

EAST (NEWARK)

Providence

Providence

Seattle

Raleigh

Conference Breakdown

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