The 2023-24 Eastern Conference race has a lot to live up to after last season's eighth-seeded Miami Heat took down Giannis Antetokounmpo and the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks, then the 5-seed New York Knicks, then the 2-seed Boston Celtics, before eventually succumbing to Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.
The Bucks and Celtics look to hold strong as the reigning favorites in the East, per our expert panel, while the Cleveland Cavaliers jump the Philadelphia 76ers, who are mired in drama that could significantly impact their season.
Will the defending conference champions once again prove themselves worthy and pull ahead of their projection? Is there another dark horse?
Our expert panel predicts the win-loss records for all 15 teams in the East.
Note: Our 2023-24 NBA Summer Forecast continues Wednesday with the Western Conference standings predictions. On Tuesday, we revealed our picks for which players will win the league's biggest awards, including MVP, DPOY and more.
Eastern Conference standings
The contenders
1. Boston Celtics: 55-27
2. Milwaukee Bucks: 54-28
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: 50-32
4. Philadelphia 76ers: 47-35
5. Miami Heat: 46-36
6. New York Knicks: 46-36
The Celtics and the Bucks sit atop this season's Summer Forecast rankings once again, as both teams are coming off a strong 2022-23 campaign and return a healthy core.
The Celtics exited the playoffs last season after an epic battle with Miami, and this season, they will continue to play a starting five that includes Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, and Jayson Tatum. But they also acquired Kristaps Porzingis during the offseason -- and lost Marcus Smart in the process -- and the Celtics are counting on Porzingis to play a major role alongside Tatum and Brown.
Despite finishing with the best record in the conference last season, the Bucks lost in five games to Jimmy Butler and the Heat. Under new coach Adrian Griffin this season, two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, now finally healthy, will lead a big three alongside veterans Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez.
Our panel is high on the young Cavaliers, despite a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the Knicks. With a young core of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, we project a No. 3 seed.
And despite the off-court spectacle that surrounds the Sixers, MVP Joel Embiid keeps Philadelphia in the mix as an inner-circle contender in the East.
Coming in fifth are last season's Eastern Conference champions, who despite returning all five starters might have a completely different look if they ultimately land Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard.
The play-in group
7. Atlanta Hawks: 41-41
8. Brooklyn Nets: 39-43
9. Indiana Pacers: 38-44
10. Orlando Magic: 38-44
The Hawks have the best chance from this group to break through after two straight appearances in the play-in tournament. Much of that promise will depend on the continuing partnership of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.
Quin Snyder enters his first full season as Atlanta's coach and will have one the East's strongest backcourts with Young and Murray, who signed a four-year, $120 million deal this summer. Expect Onyeka Okongwu to take a larger role in the frontcourt after the departure of John Collins.
In Brooklyn, preseason expectations are understandably lower after the midseason exits of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson both made immediate impacts after arriving from the Phoenix Suns in the Durant trade, and both will keep the Nets in the playoff chase. If Ben Simmons returns and contributes, it's a major victory.
It's now been three years since the Pacers made the playoffs, but Rick Carlisle's team projects to take a big leap forward after signing Bruce Brown from Denver, trading for Obi Toppin from New York and, more importantly, securing a supermax deal for guard Tyrese Haliburton. Brown's versatility and Finals experience will boost a side that boasts veterans Myles Turner and T.J. McConnell.
The Magic, still a work in progress, continue to build around 2022-23 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero. But having Franz Wagner and Markelle Fultz expand on their performances from last season will constitute steps in the right direction.
The bottom five
11. Chicago Bulls: 37-45
12. Toronto Raptors: 36-46
13. Charlotte Hornets: 30-52
14. Detroit Pistons: 26-56
15. Washington Wizards: 24-58
After a 40-42 season and a play-in loss to the eventual conference champion Heat, the Bulls are running it back by re-signing center Nikola Vucevic and guards Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu to their core of DeMar DeRozan and Zach Lavine. But our panel isn't convinced in the strategy, leaving the Bulls on the outside of the playoffs for what would be the seventh time in the past 10 years.
The Raptors, for their part, seem to be on the downswing, after an up-and-down 41-41 season and a play-in loss to Chicago that resulted in the dismissal of longtime coach Nick Nurse, who directed the team to an NBA title in 2019. In the offseason, Toronto lost point guard Fred VanVleet in free agency and replaced him with Dennis Schroder, as the team continues to try to find an identity with three ball-dominant wings in O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam. At a projected record of 36-46, it would be Toronto's second-worst record since 2011-12.
Meanwhile, the Hornets, with new ownership, continue what seems to be an endless rebuild. (They've made the playoffs just three times since 2004-05.) But they accomplished a top offseason priority: extending franchise cornerstone LaMelo Ball to a five-year deal worth as much as $260 million to pair with Brandon Miller, the No. 2 overall pick in June's draft. Still, at 30-52, our panel projects a 13th-place finish in the East.
The Pistons, though, show more promise, even in year five of their painful rebuild. With 2021 No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham returning from injury to pair with Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, the Pistons project a nine-game improvement from their NBA-worst 17 wins last season.
And ... poor Wizards. After years of playing to the middle, the team finally traded away franchise star Bradley Beal to the Suns and Porzingis to the Celtics; acquired Jordan Poole from the Golden State Warriors; and re-signed Kyle Kuzma to a nine-figure deal. In other words, a new direction: young(er), toward the bottom, with hope for higher ceilings long into the future.