3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 7/19/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, 7:08 p.m. ET

Detroit Tigers Moneyline (+100)

It will be Jack Flaherty and Chris Bassitt taking the mound in Friday's showdown between the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays. Given the pitching advantage the Tigers have, we'll take them to win outright on the road.

Among pitchers with 90-plus innings pitched this season, Flaherty has the second-best SIERA (2.63), second-best xFIP (2.50), seventh-best WHIP (0.98), and fourth-highest strikeout rate (32.1%). Holding opposing teams to one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts has helped Flaherty record a win in all five of those games.

On the other hand, Bassitt ranks in the 35th percentile in xERA (4.24) and 27th percentile in xBA (.259) through 19 starts. Bassitt has also given up three-plus earned runs in back-to-back starts while logging the lowest swinging strike rate (8.0%) of his career since 2018.

Flaherty has been better on the road this year, posting a 2.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP as the visiting pitcher, compared to a 3.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home. With the Tigers going 8-2 in their last 10 games while the Blue Jays are 5-5 in their last 10, there is value backing Detroit with Flaherty on the bump.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins, 7:11 p.m. ET

First 5 Innings Result: New York Mets (+106)

The New York Mets are slated to begin a four-game road series against the Miami Marlins out of the All-Star break, with Sean Manaea drawing the start on Friday. Manaea has been pitching well recently, giving a total of eight earned runs across his last six starts.

Similar to Flaherty, Manaea has performed better on the road, registering a 2.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP as the visiting pitcher. Comparatively, Manaea is logging a 4.33 ERA and 1.29 WHIP when pitching in front of the home fans at Citi Field.

The matchup is also ideal with the Marlins sporting the worst wOBA (.268), wRC+ (70), and ISO (.101) against left-handed pitching. It also helps when Edward Cabrera -- the projected starter for Miami -- is struggling to keep runners off base.

Cabrera is sitting in the 11th percentile in xERA (5.11) and 15th percentile in walk rate (11.5%) while allowing three-plus earned runs in five of his seven starts in 2024. The Mets also have the fifth-best wOBA (.338), third-best wRC+ (123), and third-best ISO (.216) versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, giving them a decent chance to secure a lead in the first five innings.

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 (-105)

It will be a matchup between two of the best teams against right-handed pitching when the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers square off on Friday. It just so happens that both teams will be trotting out righties in the first game of the series, with Nick Pivetta and Gavin Stone projected to start.

The Red Sox boast the third-best wOBA (.330), 10th-best wRC+ (107), and third-best ISO (.182) against right-handed pitchers this year. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are rocking the second-best wOBA (.330), second-best wRC+ (116), and fourth-best ISO (.180) in that split.

Across 14 starts for the Red Sox in 2024, Pivetta has the worst flyball rate (47.0%) of his career since 2020, and he's in the 12th percentile in barrel rate. As a result, Pivetta has permitted three-plus earned runs in five of his last six outings.

While Stone has done a good job limiting hard contact this season, he's given up 14 hard hits in his previous two starts combined, which has led to him allowing four earned runs in both contests. Stone could find himself in more trouble on Friday with the Red Sox owning the best HR/FB rate (17.2%) against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.