Fantasy Football: How Should We Handle the Texans' Pass-Catchers?

Ahead of the 2024 season, numberFire's power rankings have the Houston Texans with the league's fifth-best passing attack. Houston totaled the fifth-most passing yards per attempt and the eighth-most passing yards per game last season, spearheaded by the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud.

Projections are expecting Houston's pass attack to be as potent as ever in the upcoming season. numberFire's fantasy football projections for half-PPR leagues have Stroud finishing as QB6 with the most passing yards in the NFL (4,752). Plus, FanDuel Sportsbook also has Stroud with the second-shortest odds to lead in passing yards (+750).

Stroud is armed with a bountiful choice of targets following the addition of Stefon Diggs -- a four-time Pro Bowl receiver. Nico Collins finished as WR9 last season while Tank Dell produced 709 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns, and 12.9 fantasy points per game over 11 contests in his rookie season. Dalton Schultz also produced a good fantasy season, finishing as TE11.

Houston's receiving corps is garnering praise in the offseason, regarded as one of the league's best units. FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) in half-PPR leagues has Collins, Diggs, and Dell all within the first 30 receivers selected, and Schultz is TE13 on the board.

This is a loaded unit that will likely enjoy a ton of chances with Stroud spinning the ball, but which players should take priority in fantasy drafts? Every player is unlikely to pan out. Let's break down each pass-catcher's fantasy outlook.

Houston Texans Fantasy Outlook

Nico Collins Fantasy Outlook

Starting with the most respected option ahead of the 2024 fantasy season, Collins had a massive breakout campaign in 2023, finishing 47 spots above his ADP.

All expectations were smashed in his third season as a pro. Collins led all receivers in +3.6 expected FanDuel points per game vs. FanDuel points (FDP) per game, per Brandon Gdula's expected FDP model.

His workload soared, going from 66 to 109 targets. The efficiency was through the roof, carrying the second-best mark in yards per route run, third-best mark in yards per target, and ninth-highest yards per reception, per PlayerProfiler.

Collins' target share for 2023 definitely has some concern with the addition of Diggs. Is he bound for a top-15 target rate with Diggs and a healthy Dell in the receiving group? It looks unlikely, but don't overlook Collins' ridiculous efficiency from 2023; he should still get the most work in this group.

The Texans' top wideout from last season has the earliest ADP of this group as WR12.

Stefon Diggs Fantasy Outlook

Diggs is probably the toughest piece to gauge ahead of 2024. He's joining a new team with a ton of receiver depth after being the surefire top target of the Buffalo Bills for several seasons.

He's finished among the top-10 fantasy WRs in four consecutive seasons. But since joining the Bills in 2020, Diggs logged his lowest receiving total (1,183 yards) last season. The advanced stats push the same message, for he hit a low in target rate and air yards share over the four-year span.

Then we had scouts in the offseason claiming Diggs was "addition by subtraction" for the Bills. Plus, he posted a team-low -1.6 expected FDP per game vs. FDP per game.

The efficiency across the board was not there in 2023. Diggs ranked 31st in yards per route run after being in the top 15 of the category over the three previous seasons.

A decline for the 30-year-old receiver could be imminent. I don't love his chances of stepping into this room and immediately becoming the alpha dog once again. His ADP of WR20 is iffy; should he really deserve being only eight spots behind Collins?

Tank Dell Fantasy Outlook

Dell could arguably provide the best value out of this entire group. He excelled in his rookie season when healthy, finishing 16th in fantasy points per game while holding the 14th-highest yards per route run.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) awarded Dell with the 11th-best overall grade and 13th-best receiving grade for rookie wideouts since 2006. Up to Week 12, Dell had a jaw-dropping 98.4 PFF receiving grade on passes of 20 or more yards.

Deep shots were Tank's middle name, for 253 of his total 709 yards (35.7%) came on throws of 20+ yards. The rookie also had a 14.3 average depth of target (aDOT) -- the 12th-highest -- 9.5 yards per target (21st), and 15.1 yards per reception (21st). His air yards share of 29.5% even ranked 33rd, which is pretty impressive when you factor in missing six games.

The fantasy potential was as clear as day for Dell when he did play. In fact, he delivered 3 top-five weekly finishes over his first 10 contests (he sustained his season-ending injury early in his 11th game with only nine snaps).

With his season-ending injury in mind, Dell was outside the top 65 in snap share, routes run, and route participation. Imagine if Tank's usage spikes this season; we'd have big value on our hands.

Houston using 11 personnel will likely be the key to unlocking Dell. They were 23rd in 11 personnel (60.5%) last season, but this should spike with Diggs joining the team.

Dalton Schultz Fantasy Outlook

The value from this passing attack in 2023 just keeps going. Even the tight end did very well as Schultz finished as the 11th-best tight end.

PlayerProfiler has plenty of impressive numbers from Schultz's 2023 campaign. This included finishing in the top 10 of air yards, aDOT, red zone targets, and yards per route run at his position.

Schultz was second on the Texans with a 20.0% red zone target share. As most of us know, scoring touchdowns is a huge factor in being a quality fantasy tight end.

Our three undervalued tight ends based on win totals highlighted four of the five highest-scoring fantasy tight ends played in conference championship games last season. Winning and being on a quality offense directly ties to a tight end's success.

FanDuel has the Texans with the fifth-shortest odds to win the AFC Championship (+850); appearing in a conference title game isn't that lofty. Plus, we know this passing attack is elite as the offense finished in the top half of points per game (PPG) a year ago.

I don't see Schultz approaching star fantasy level, though. Collins and Diggs were both among the top 25 in red zone targets in 2023. With Diggs likely working out of the slot, he's great in short-yardage situations, and Collins found the end zone eight times in 2023.

Houston Texans Fantasy Projection

Projections via numberFire suggest that Schultz and Dell will have the best value in this receiving unit.

Diggs is projected to finish as WR24 -- four spots behind his ADP. His forecasted targets sit at 131 after reaching over 150 targets in the last four seasons. As we surmised, Diggs is due for a decreased workload.

Collins is expected to finish right in line with his ADP as WR12. His projected targets are actually up at 133 compared to 109 in 2023. Overall, numberFire expects Collins to have a similar yardage mark at 1,262 -- compared to 1,297 last season -- while his yards per catch drop from 16.2 to 15.0 in 2024.

Schultz is projecting to be TE13 versus TE14 ADP. He's looking at similar numbers to 2023 with a projected 86 targets, 646 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns (88 targets, 635 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns in 2023). This seems pretty fair. Schultz has an opportunity to be a low-end starter in 12-team leagues but lacks the volume to be a regular star on a week-to-week basis.

Dell is the only wide receiver touting a projection higher than his ADP. It's not by much at WR28 versus a WR29 ADP. This still backs what we've pushed in this piece. Dell could be the wideout to target.

Considering he played for only nine snaps in his final outing of 2023, Dell produced 709 yards and 7 touchdowns in only 10 games. We've gone over Dell's deep ball stats, and the opportunities will certainly be there thanks to Stroud's ability to drop it in the bucket.

Stroud led the league in deep passing yards and deep passer rating in 2023, and his expected points added (EPA) on deep balls finished second, per PFF.

There will be plenty of deep balls in this offense, which is evident by last season's top-five finish in yards per passing attempt. Dell looks like the best bet to regularly haul in Stroud's dime down the field.

If two players have to be circled among Houston's pass-catchers, it's Dell and Diggs. Buy into Dell while fading Diggs. Collins and Schultz are both expected to be right around their ADP, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.