MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Friday 7/19/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)

We'll start in Atlanta where Sonny Gray and the St. Louis Cardinals are up against the Atlanta Braves. Though the Braves have several scary bats in their lineup, their affinity for whiffs puts Gray in a strong position to go over 5.5 strikeouts.

Atlanta had the second-highest swinging-strike rate (12.9%) in the league during the first half, propelling them to a bottom-10 overall K rate (23.9%). They were even more K-happy against righties, punching out at the fifth-highest K rate in the split (24.3%) while ranking just 21st in wOBA (.302).

That bodes well for Sonny Gray's pursuit of six strikeouts. This season, Gray's fanned at least six batters in 14 of 17 starts, including four straight.

In total, the righty has the sixth-highest K rate (30.3%) and eighth-highest called plus swinging-strike rate (30.1%) among qualified pitchers.

It helps that he's proven he is capable of sitting down Atlanta's biggest stars in the past, too. Marcell Ozuna has struck out five times in 13 career at-bats against Gray while Ozzie Albies has gone down on strikes four times in 13 ABs.

Even at such short odds, Gray's track record is worth investing in.

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Jonathan India to Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)

The Cincinnati Reds are up against Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals. Considering Corbin's track record, this is a good spot to identify some Cincinnati player props.

Corbin enters the second half of the season with an abysmal 1-9 record, 5.57 ERA, and 1.54 WHIP.

That's reflected in suboptimal ERA indicators -- 6.29 xERA, 4.44 xFIP, and 4.75 SIERA.

The southpaw has been even worse against righty hitters, surrendering a .380 wOBA and pitching to a 4.57 xFIP in the split.

As a result, we can look to the right-handed Jonathan India to record 2+ total bases at -110 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

India shredded lefties in the first half of the season, piecing together a .381 wOBA and .871 OPS. Though a 25.3% fly-ball rate capped his power, he struck out at only a 17.6% clip.

In general, the second baseman has really put together a strong year following a slow start. Entering the second half, India is in the 87th percentile in xwOBA (.362), 91st percentile in xBA (.290) and 100th percentile in chase rate (17%) according to Statcast.

He's seeing the ball well and not swinging at many pitches out of the zone. Corbin's allowed the second-highest zone contact rate (91.5%) among qualified pitchers this season, so that's the kind of profile we're looking for.

It doesn't hurt that he has some head-to-head experience against Corbin, too. India's recorded 10 plate appearances versus the lefty, racking up four hits (including a home run).

Michael Toglia to Record an RBI (+140)

The Colorado Rockies have the slate's second-highest implied total (5.00) for their Coors Field date with the San Francisco Giants. That's always a decent spot to turn to for some offensive props, especially with Kyle Harrison hurling for San Fran.

Harrison hasn't been a disaster, but he's been plenty hittable in 2024. Across 16 starts, the lefty has pitched to a 4.08 ERA with just a 19.6% K rate. His WHIP has ballooned to 1.36 this season, and his quality-of-contact metrics are less than ideal.

By allowing 10.3% barrel and 44.5% hard-hit rates, Harrison hasn't done himself any favors within the ERA indicators. Entering the second half, he has a 4.95 xERA, 4.40 xFIP, and 4.33 SIERA.

As a result, we can look to Colorado's side for some hitting props -- specifically, Michael Toglia to record an RBI at +140 odds.

Though Toglia hits from both sides of the plate, he's proven to be more effective against lefties this season. On that side, Toglia's racked up a .372 wOBA and .443 ISO -- compared to his .293 wOBA and .232 ISO versus righties.

That's culminated in a .904 OPS against lefties and led to him hitting nine home runs (in just 68 plate appearance).

We could consider Toglia's odds to record 2+ total bases (+115), but I like getting up to +140 with his odds to record an RBI.

In 36 games since returning to the majors, Toglia has recorded an RBI on 15 separate occasions (42%). That's right in line with the 41.7% implied probability we get from these +140 odds.

And given the power he's flashed of late, we can certainly consider Toglia's +450 odds to hit a home run, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.