NASCAR Best Bets: Quaker State 400

For the second time in three weeks, the NASCAR Cup Series is at a drafting track.

This time, it's the start of the playoffs.

What could go wrong?

Back in Daytona, Harrison Burton was a surprise winner, earning a playoff berth despite sitting outside the top 30 in points. I wouldn't be shocked if we see something similar this week, even without a trip to the playoffs on the line. My model has the odds of a non-playoff driver winning at 40.2% this week.

That's where most of the value lies in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. And, personally, every driver I'm comfortable betting is a non-playoff driver.

That may feel a bit awkward, given the increased stakes, but I do think that's where the market pushes us. Which bets stand out prior to qualifying? Let's check it out.

NASCAR Betting Picks for Atlanta

Bubba Wallace to Win (+3100)

(UPDATE: Wallace has since lengthened to +3300. I'm still very in on him at that number.)

Bubba Wallace missed out on the playoffs despite sitting 12th in regular-season points as six drivers below him in the standings won a race.

Although the timing for him would be unfortunate, I wouldn't be shocked if he finally breaks through this week.

Across the four Cup Series pack races this year, Wallace has finished sixth or better three times, including the first Atlanta race. That was his first top-10 at the reconfigured Atlanta, but he has five top-fives in Daytona and a win in Talladega. He's a skilled drafter.

As a result, my model has Wallace at 3.8% to win, up from 3.1% implied. Given his track record, I think we can buy into what the model is saying here.

Todd Gilliland to Win (+4400)

(UPDATE: Gilliland has since shortened to +3700, pushing his implied odds up to 2.6%. That's still below my model at 3.1%, so there's lingering value here even if it's a bit thinner.)

Todd Gilliland has been a fixture at the front in pack races this year. That hasn't translated to amazing results yet, but he should be in the hunt.

Gilliland's coming out party was the first race at this track. There, he led 58 lap and had a 9th-place average running position before ultimately finishing 26th. He added top-13 average running positions in both Talladega and Daytona, and he turned the Talladega run into a top-10.

We saw glimpses of this from Gilliland in previous years, too, and now Front Row Motorsports is getting increased funding from Ford. With Gilliland returning to the team next year, he'll still get some manufacturer support despite not being in the playoffs. Thus, with my model putting Gilliland at 3.1% to win versus 2.2% implied, I think we can feel free to fire if inclined.

Noah Gragson to Finish Top 5 (+900)

(UPDATE: Gragson has since shortened to +750. That's only a hair below my model -- 13.0% versus 11.8% implied -- so the value here is thinner but still existent.)

Noah Gragson will be Gilliland's teammate at Front Row next year, meaning he's also staying in the Ford camp. I think he deserves our interest, as well.

Gragson seems to be a driver who gets in a lot of incidents at pack tracks. In eight drafting races since the start of last year, he has finished outside the top 30 half the time.

But incidents can be fluky, too. Harrison Burton also had four finishes outside the top 30 since the start of last year when he won at Daytona. It's not the floor we care about here; it's the ceiling.

Gragson has flashed that, finishing third in Talladega this year and top-five in Daytona back in 2022, before he was even a full-time driver. He's a two-time pack-track winner in the Xfinity Series, as well.

I do show value in Gragson to win at +6500. If you want another longshot, he'd be my pick. But I've also got value here with Gragson at 13.0% to finish top 5 for me, up from 10.0% implied. I'm on board with the increased leniency, but you've got options based on your risk tolerance.

Daniel Hemric to Finish Top 10 (+460)

(UPDATE: Hemric is still +460, so I'm still fine adding him now.)

In four pack races this year, Daniel Hemric already has a pair of top-10 finishes. His longer track record isn't too shabby, either.

Hemric ran five pack races in the Xfinity Series last year. He finished on the podium three separate times, two of which came at this very track. He was also top-five in Atlanta back in 2022, the first year after the reconfiguration.

Hemric has benefited from good crash luck this year as he has escaped unscathed from all four races. That'll regress soon as nobody is safe on these tracks. But my model has him at 23.0% to finish top 10, up from 17.9% implied, so fingers crossed that regression will wait at least one more race.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Austin Cindric to Win (+2600)

I was mostly in line with Austin Cindric before qualifying. Now that he has lengthened, I think he's a fine add.

My model has Cindric at 4.7% to win, up from 3.7% implied. That makes him the biggest value in my model other than Ryan Preece (+10000), but I'm personally higher on Cindric than Preece.

In addition to Cindric's 2022 Daytona 500 win, he has four other top-fives in 15 Cup Series pack races. One of those was this year in Atlanta, and he notched a top-five here in 2022, as well.

Cindric will run toward the front. He just needs to stay clean to the end. I have enough faith he can do that to add him at +2600.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Denny Hamlin Over Kyle Larson (-102)

You almost never want to bet a matchup below even-money on a pack track because of how chaotic the finishes can be. But the talent gap on this track type is big enough for me to bite.

Kyle Larson has run 16 pack races during the Next-Gen era. He has only one top-10 finish versus seven finishes of 30th or worse.

Denny Hamlin has also dipped a bit in this era, but he has three top-10s versus just three finishes in the 30s. Even a diminished Hamlin still towers over Larson.

So, this is an odd bet and not when I'd typically make. But I can make an exception when it's a proven winner on pack tracks versus a driver who is typically lost at these spots.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.