UFC Saudi Arabia: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 11 fights at UFC Saudi Arabia: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov, taking place at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Saturday.

Xiao Long vs. ChangHo Lee

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

I find these Road to UFC finales to always be interesting propositions for my process. We have octagon data against sub-UFC-level competition, and I always like to see how much it matters in the outcome.

This one at 135 pounds appears to be a story of offense versus defense.

Xiao Long is a slight favorite representing the "defense" side of the equation. His striking (54%) and takedown (78%) D would actually be above average in this division if they held through UFC-level competition.

Despite being just 26, the Chinese prospect has 34 pro fights. That gives you an idea how well matched they may have been. He went to a decision twice on the show following an 0-1 stint with ONE Championship -- a domestic competitor of UFC.

On the other side, ChangHo Lee went 1-0 with ONE, so I took notice when he also finished both of his bouts on the show via ground-and-pound. Lee's +3.27 striking success rate (SSR) dwarfs Long's (+1.64) as a result of the dominant showings.

Lee has only 10 pro fights at 30, but he started training in 2015. I think that lack of experience is why he's an underdog, but those fights for Long may not have even been relevant to this competition level.

I lean the underdog with a warning that this fight isn't a world where I'm particularly useful.

Betting Verdict

• Film study is a crucial aspect of a fight like this -- and one that isn't my specialty. While picking Lee to win, it's not wise to wager on that verdict.

DFS Verdict

• Especially with only 11 fights on the card, I could use Lee ($14) deeper into tournament builds for variance. It's not with extreme confidence, though.

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

Both of these 205ers competed on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) last fall, and they profile for one of the least competitive matchups on the card.

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov was the party that -- perhaps -- underwhelmed a bit as a -1000 favorite. It depends on the definition of that. While he was unable to secure a finish, he still dominated nearly every second of the fight with six takedowns and a +49 striking differential.

Yet another prospect from Khabib Nurmagomedov's camp in Dagestan, Gadzhiyasulov resembled a larger version of Islam Makhachev's elite efficiency in that one, defending all takedowns and 73% of his foe's strikes. I'm not sure the competition level is increasing against Brendson Ribeiro, either.

Ribeiro's approach to MMA is much different. He's a brawler that won his frantic DWCS bid within four minutes by knockout, but he also lost his official debut in February within two minutes. The net of those is a decent +1.64 SSR, but his completely untested grappling -- a regional struggle -- looms large entering this bout with Gazhiyasulov.

Other than a quick bonk, Ribeiro seems lacking the tools to win minutes in this fight, and I'm sure Gadzhiyasulov welcomes a more reckless opponent to perhaps make a more notable impression than he did in his first effort.

Betting Verdict

• I'm playing Gadzhiyasulov's round-one (-110) and round-two (+550) props in this fight. There's a massive grappling discrepancy that might be a bit undersold due to the favorite's underwhelming decision result on DWCS.
• This fight is -900 to not go the distance due to Ribeiro's willingness to walk into the fire.

DFS Verdict

• I see Gadzhiyasulov ($22) as the card's top MVP candidate. He's favored to win inside the distance with solid pacing (5.32 FanDuel points per minute excl. bonuses) in his debut.

Muin Gafurov vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

I'm a bit confused on this fight's line, which makes me feel like I'm walking right into the bear trap -- but maybe not.

Muin Gafurov is still without a win in three UFC-affiliated appearances. While that alone never phases me, "Tajik" has put forth below-average striking accuracy (41%) and defense (48%) while only converting 26% of his takedown attempts. There's a good amount of trying but a minimal amount of succeeding in his profile.

On the flip side, Kyung Ho Kang is an eight-time UFC winner, including a pair of wins in his last three trips. He's posted better striking accuracy (48%) and defense (55%) and will enjoy a five-inch edge in reach to help those. Many have tried to take "Mr. Perfect" down, but in addition to a modest 68% takedown D, he's got four UFC wins via submission.

Though we have to account for the age of Gafurov (28) and Kang (36), I'm not sure how much adjustment is needed when we saw both face John Castaneda in the last year. Gafurov was dropped, controlled for 256 seconds, and posted a -21 striking differential. Kang wasn't, allowed less than 140 seconds of control time, and posted a -23 differential.

I would have expected Kang to be a short favorite here as the more experienced, larger fighter with better peripherals, but no complaints shall be heard from yours truly.

Betting Verdict

• Especially after Gafurov walked into a 73-second submission in his last fight, I can't trust him to stay safe against a credential finisher at chalk. I will lay Kang's moneyline (+136) once the line stabilizes.
• This fight is -156 to go the distance, and I'd assume Kang has the higher finishing upside of the two. I'll pass on an ambiguous outlook for the total.

DFS Verdict

• Kang ($13) has delivered at least 80 FanDuel points in six of his eight wins, and it's not as if Gafurov's poor defense and modest pace are a bad matchup for fantasy points.

Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Nicolas Dalby

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

Though Rinat Fakhretdinov didn't quite lose last fall in São Paulo, he and Nicolas Dalby's stock left that night in opposite directions.

For this first time in UFC, Fakhretdinov looked human. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (10-4-1 UFC) stuffed eight of nine takedowns from the Russian, which I think were a bit labored after Fakhretdinov emptied 47 strikes into the first round after knocking down and hurting EZDS. Either way, he still arguably won the fight behind a +12 striking differential.

Otherwise, "Gladiator" has posted a +1.89 SSR and an elite rate of 4.25 takedowns per 15 minutes with 46% accuracy. Dalby's 60% takedown defense figures to be an easier target -- especially if approached fresh.

Energy management went in the exact opposite direction for "Danish Dynamite" in his last fight. He benefitted from Gabriel Bonfim's expiring gas tank, proving to critically fail when Dalby was able to extend him into a second round. Fakhretdinov's first two UFC wins were dominant, hard-fought decisions, so no such out should arise this weekend.

Overall, Dalby's first 10 official UFC fights all went to a decision, and he was able to squeak out 7 of them behind a +0.60 SSR -- including 4 in a row and 2 by split decision. I just don't think much stands out about him with mediocre striking efficiency and pace (9.37 significant strike attempts per minute).

Fakhretdinov took Bryan Battle (5-1 UFC) down seven times in a rout, and he submitted former title challenger Kevin Lee (11-8 UFC). I'd pronounce Dalby a step down from both, so Fakhretdinov's -375 moneyline makes sense.

Betting Verdict

• Though never going to show pure value on such a wide moneyline, I've got Fakhretdinov as 69.0% likely to win, implying -225. He's the best win pick on the card.
• Dalby has yet to officially be finished on his record, but I do model Fakhretdinov with a 32.1% chance to do it.
  • His inside-the-distance prop (+195) doesn't quite show value, but I don't mind it.

DFS Verdict

• I see Fakhretdinov ($21) as the card's second-best MVP candidate.
  • He doesn't have the raw upside of Gadzhiyasulov but still has averaged 92.7 FanDuel points in four starts with just one finish.

Felipe Lima vs. Muhammad Naimov

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

We're still waiting for Muhammad Naimov to return to the fringe-ranked competition level we believe he's ready to face.

Naimov turned my head -- if no one else's -- with a legitimate win over Nathaniel Wood (7-3 UFC) last October. This was off the heels of a short-notice win at 155 pounds against Jamie Mullarkey (5-6 UFC), but he's really taken a step back in competition since due to opponents falling out of fights.

Erik Silva (0-2 UFC) tore his ACL just 44 seconds into his February bout with Naimov, and now Melsik Baghdasaryan is injured out of this original bout, paving the way for "Hillman" to face Felipe Lima on Saturday.

Lima is OKTAGON MMA's 135-pound champion, so he'll be working uphill as the smaller man against a multi-time UFC winner. Nonetheless, it's quite possible the 26-year-old was building a UFC-caliber resumé in the same spot where Ludovit Klein, Martin Buday, and other multi-time promotional winners cut their teeth.

I've got an abundance of questions around Naimov's -1.24 SSR at a higher level, but he's a significantly larger fighter here that's posted 5.88 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and converted a decent chunk of them (33%) against modest foes.

It's hard to imagine that, at worst, he can't grapple his way to a win here as the natural bantamweight eyes his next opportunity for a win from this opportunity.

Betting Verdict

• I was pretty stunned to find Naimov in a pick 'em. As film bettors obsess over Lima's tools, this is a brutal situation for him physically that reminds me of Vinicius Oliveira and Bernardo Sopaj's fight in March.
  • There, the larger UFC veteran was losing early but took over against the short-notice substitute late.
  • Naimov's moneyline (-105) seems a solid proposition.

DFS Verdict

• Though Naimov's profile against fringe-ranked competitors is concerning, this isn't exactly a fair fight. He's still a flex play at $17.

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jared Gordon

Lightweight (155 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

These fighters entered their last fight with zero wins by finish since the COVID break, and they both got one. Are we in for another?

Nasrat Haqparast became the fourth man to knock out Jamie Mullarkey in Mullarkey's last seven fights, so his result was a bit less surprising. Nonetheless, the Afghan fighter might be one of the most underrated fighters in this 155-pound division with an 8-4 record behind elite striking (64%) and takedown (78%) defense.

The entire package has underwhelmed a bit when looking at a +0.53 SSR, and the competition of those 12 fighters leaves a lot to be desired when Dan Hooker, inside the rankings, amassed a +46 striking differential and controlled Nasrat for over seven minutes.

With that the case, Jared Gordon will look to mix his elements well and sneak by the veteran with a win. Gordon's lone losses without controversy since the start of 2019 have come to Charles Oliveira and Grant Dawson -- firmly inside the rankings. Though he was declared the loser of a bout with undefeated star Paddy Pimblett (5-0 UFC), most MMA experts believe he should have handily gotten the nod.

"Flash" Gordon's analytics are pretty sparkling. He's scored a +1.99 SSR with equally excellent striking accuracy (57%) and defense (57%). He's also added 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes with his endurance firmly a weapon against most. His ascent was no surprise.

Gordon's downside is, at 35, a general lack of finishing upside. He's never attempted a submission with a miniscule 0.12% knockdown rate. To win, he'll need to sneak out a decision on volume and wrestling, but Haqparast generally provides a path to do so.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Haqparast -- seven years younger -- as 55.7% likely to win despite his inferior analytics, but I think he's getting too much credit in the power department for his win over Mullarkey.
• I've got this fight 72.2% likely to go its full distance, and if that's the case, I've got Gordon (38.7%) more likely to win a decision than Haqparast (33.7%).
  • The underdog's decision prop (+320) was an early circle for me.

DFS Verdict

• Gordon has shown modest durability outside of the rankings, and this fight is -176 to go the distance -- in agreement with my model. The $11 underdog is the side I'll scoop up in a competitive fight.

Johnny Walker vs. Volkan Oezdemir

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

Though I think UFC would love to bill this as a battle of sluggers, Johnny Walker and Volkan Oezdemir's battle has a few more layers than that.

"No Time" Oezdemir has had a bit more time available as he's aged, going to a decision in five of his last eight bouts. The Swiss former title challenger has six UFC setbacks, but all have come to a top-10 ranked fighter at the time of the bout -- and not a single has aged poorly.

I've just struggled with his lack of a true identity. As a one-dimensional boxer, his +0.67 SSR is just fine, but his knockdown rate (0.66%) really isn't a plus threat. Most of his knockouts have come against foes that could be categorized as fragile. Walker won't likely test what is an exceptional 80% takedown D.

Walker could present a few matchup issues, starting with a seven-inch reach edge in a striking battle. However, the whiskey-named Brazilian presents other issues with a 53% striking accuracy and above-average 1.07% knockdown rate.

As he's hit 32 years old, Johnny has shown a bit of maturity to not just recklessly trade himself. He's gone the distance in three of his last seven completed, and one exception was a submission win over Ion Cutelaba (6-9-1 UFC) that's not likely replicable in this matchup.

Stunned by my model's verdict of length in this fight above all, Walker seems a bit undervalued to win considering his key advantages in the standup.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Walker at 58.0% likely to win (-140 implied), so I think his moneyline (-112) is a solid bet.
  • Interestingly, the results of both are showing a 12.3% chance he wins via submission, so I wouldn't leave it behind despite not believing it likely.
• The most surprising part of this model was a 58.6% projection this fight goes the distance. Oezdemir has recently delivered plenty of full fights, though.
  • It has Walker's decision prop (+400) at +300.

DFS Verdict

• This mid-range, pick 'em fight could be a decision all for naught if the verdict of length wins out between two low-volume strikers.
  • Nonetheless, I'll target Walker ($15) and his superior power rating at a minimal difference.

Shara Magomedov vs. Antonio Trocoli

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

The UFC made this matchup to try and allow Shara Magomedov to do what he does best.

"Bullet" made a name outside the promotion with 11 knockouts in 12 wins -- many of the vicious variety -- despite having just one functional eye. In his promotional debut, he landed 113 significant strikes with 73% accuracy on Bruno Silva (4-5 UFC), but the fear of his unique background came to fruition.

Untested in the grappling department, Silva landed three takedowns on seven attempts and controlled him for over six minutes. The Brazilian has just five total career takedowns, yet even he was able to exploit Shara there. That means there's a bit of drama in this one with Antonio Trocoli.

Trocoli has 5 of his 12 pro wins via submission, which backs up the 3.80 takedowns and 3.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes we saw from him during a brief DWCS stint. The problem facing Shara? A 25% striking defense that better mirrored a punching bag.

This fight came together on Wednesday after Magomedov's initial opponent failed a drug test. Trocoli makes his first UFC-affiliated appearance in over three years 20 pounds lighter than we last saw him. Shara showed difficulties defending takedowns -- but not submissions -- in his first fight.

I'd predict that Magomedov knocks the Brazilian out in the first round, but I'm not willing to pay the price that will come with that verdict.

Betting Verdict

• Magomedov's moneyline is -650, and this fight is -142 to see fewer than 1.5 rounds. Oddsmakers have the same instinct that I do, but this isn't a spot to bet. It's as volatile as it gets.

DFS Verdict

• The projected forecast for Magomedov ($18) makes him an MVP candidate. I actually think this lower salary is more appropriate for his outlook than the being the largest moneyline favorite on the card.
• Trocoli is not in the FanDuel player pool due to the timing of this fight's announcement.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

There might not be a harder fighter to project in 2024 on the entire roster than Kelvin Gastelum.

Gastelum is 2-6 in his last eight fights and has tried to drop to 170 pounds for his last bout and this one. He failed this weekend, though.

There's a forgivable asterisk in the record when five of those six defeats came to fighters still in the top 10 of their division, but the piper has to be paid at some point.

Analytically, Gastelum's +0.32 SSR just isn't special, and he's wrestled and grappled sporadically to post 0.96 takedowns and 0.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. After landing just 18 significant strikes in his last loss via third-round submission to Sean Brady (5-1 UFC), we didn't even get any answers where those may improve at welterweight.

Still, a -230 moneyline reflects plenty believe that the unranked Daniel Rodriguez is a step too low. "D-Rod" has put pen to paper better with a 7-1 record -- all since the COVID break -- before his latest two losses inside the 170-pound rankings to Ian Machado Garry and Neil Magny.

I've always been a fan of the southpaw, whose +2.02 SSR with elite striking accuracy (50%) and defense (56%) that stands off the page. In the Magny setback, his wrestling defense let him down to surrender five takedowns and a sub. It now stands a pedestrian 63%.

My model and I both believe Rodriguez wins the standup exchanges in this bout, but the former middleweight could definitely put on his best wrestling shoes in a must-win spot. Nonetheless, the price here completely swayed my betting angle in the fight.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Gastelum 51.6% likely to win (-110 implied), but the wide gap in that outcome puts the value squarely on D-Rod.
• With a 76.1% projection on this fight to go the full distance, a play at Rodriguez's decision prop (+300) is the official recommendation.
  • Both fighters have a knockdown rate at or below 0.85%, which is not much power against two reliable chins.

DFS Verdict

• Especially considering Gastelum's last inside-the-distance win came in 2017, I'm punting to Rodriguez ($12) without much question here.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

I don't think I've ever previewed a fight where one fighter actively didn't want it.

Alexander Volkov has been vocal that he had no interest in fighting his countryman, Sergei Pavlovich, in an official setting. He claims to get crushed in sparring. Sure, it could all be head games, but Pavlovich's UFC reputation doesn't exactly dispute those claims.

It's a shame because, in general, Volkov has been a tremendous bet. He's got an elite +2.10 SSR and made a significant leap in his grappling and takedown defense (73%) to a point where he even submitted Tai Tuivasa in his last bout. That was just his fourth career submission and first since 2016.

He's likely going to have to rely on it here when Pavlovich has been a monster on the feet. He's landed 8.21 significant strikes per minute with great accuracy (48%), and his 4.80% knockdown rate is unfathomable given a nine-fight sample.

There's a reason he entered an interim title shot against Tom Aspinall off six straight first-round knockouts, and he wobbled Aspinall before the current belt-holder was able to return fire. That's the concern for me if -- somehow -- an opponent withstands Pavlovich's power; his 55% striking D isn't perfect.

I just can't project Pavlovich to lose a striking match, and Volkov's 6'7" frame isn't an organic fit to actively wrestle into such an extreme power threat. He's -140 to win by KO/TKO for a reason -- one Volkov attested to himself.

Betting Verdict

• These two's friendship and unwillingness to fight each other -- but being forced to -- adds a bit of ambiguity to this fight for me.
  • I've got a fight modeled to end early 75.7% of the time with Pavlovich winning 61.2% of those occasions.
  • Yet, I could easily see both sparring over 1.5 rounds (+130) in a decision that's tighter than you'd hope to lay chalk.

DFS Verdict

• Anytime that Pavlovich ($20) is on the card, he demands attention. It's really hard to pass on a guy who has topped 110 FanDuel points in all four wins since the COVID break.
  • If this fight is indeed different, passing on him at MVP could be a tournament-altering outlook.

Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov

Middleweight (185 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

Since developing my model, this is the first main event I couldn't project with it. That's speaks to the meteoric rise of Ikram Aliskerov.

Aliskerov has three UFC-affiliated appearances, and he's finished all of them within three minutes. The latter two against Phil Hawes (5-5 UFC) and Warlley Alves (8-8 UFC) were thought of well enough to launch him into the top five on emergency notice.

He'll replace the only man that's beaten him as a pro, Khamzat Chimaev, in this main event against Robert Whittaker. Whittaker's fight this weekend goes from a forgiving position as an underdog against one of the sport's brightest stars to a must-win situation against the unproven prospect.

"The Reaper" is the former champion at 185 pounds, but a trio of clear losses to Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya have him away from the title mix at present. He's still turned away five ranked competitors around those, including Paulo Costa with a +28 striking differential back in February.

He's an exceptionally tough out with a +1.12 SSR behind solid striking (59%) and takedown (82%) defense, but his 42% striking accuracy -- and lack of consistent offense -- doomed him against the aforementioned top-shelf foes. Whittaker has, oddly, never attempted a submission in 21 UFC bouts.

From a betting perspective, this main event is filled with pitfalls. Aliskerov hasn't been to a second UFC round -- much less the five scheduled here on short notice. Whittaker likely demolishes him later in the fight based on both experience and preparation.

Yet, Rob is older (33) and badly struggled with the physicality against du Plessis, and the Dagestani underdog brings that in waves while also holding the grappling advantage (2.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes).

At cost, it's hard to pick against one of Khabib Nurmagomedov's brightest pupils as a 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• Whittaker's last win in the top five was a different version of Jared Cannonier in October 2020. It's tough to gauge where exactly he's at among top-shelf contenders, and Aliskerov has the makings of one.
  • As the line shifted, Aliskerov's moneyline (+124) became appealing enough to bet.
• This fight is -230 to not go the distance, which has been the case in 13 in Aliskerov's 16 fights.
  • Now on short notice in a five-rounder, he'll likely be out of gas well before 25 minutes.
  • In lieu of his moneyline, Aliskerov's submission prop (+750) -- and early method/round combos -- are likely better bets than his overall mark.

DFS Verdict

• Whittaker hasn't won by early finish since April 2017, which only furthers my claim that Aliskerov ($16) is the more dangerous combatant.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.