UFC Vegas 93: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 11 fights at UFC Vegas 93: Perez vs. Taira, taking place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Josefine Knutsson vs. Julia Polastri

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

Whatever the opposite of "dog in them" is, Josefine Knutsson has it, and it's stifled the start of her UFC career.

Knutsson was turned away from Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) without a contract despite a dominant win. She sarcastically smirked as White turned her away citing a minimal willingness to inflict violence to her opponent.

In need of a late-notice bout, White finally called Knutsson back to face Marnic Mann (0-2 UFC) last fall, and against all odds, she failed to finish Mann despite a +73 striking differential with three takedowns.

All in all, "Thunder" has six of her seven pro wins by decision but continues to underwhelm while advancing in competition. Eventually, a grittier opponent will match her skill (+2.40 SSR), and that could be Julia Polastri.

Polastri lost her initial DWCS bid to currently ranked flyweight Jasmine Jasudavicius (4-2 UFC) when she's a natural 115-pounder. An organic matchup in this division served her much better as she walked away with a dominant second-round submission last September.

Already having faced a ranked foe, I'm particularly impressed by Polastri's +1.08 SSR with excellent striking accuracy (52%) and defense (62%). She's added a bit of grappling to it with three pro submissions, and all three of her pro losses have come via decision.

I was excited for "The Dragon" coming off the show, and a match made with Knutsson couldn't be a better entry point for me to bet her. Knutsson's own tendencies should keep this close, and I'll take the underdog with equal efficiency and a better history of impactful moments given this fight is projected to be decided in tight margins.

Betting Verdict

• Knutsson won't get a better opportunity to find a UFC finish than her debut, and she failed. Polastri has seven finishes as a pro and has already faced a ranked fighter. I'm not sure how Polastri's moneyline (+146) comes at plus chicken.
• This fight is -360 to go the distance, which stays in line with strawweight's divisional trends -- much less Knutsson's. I'm also backing Polastri's decision prop (+230).

DFS Verdict

• I am still -- to this day -- stunned Knutsson didn't top 85 FanDuel points in her squash match of an opener. She just figures to be a high-salaried fade her entire career, and that's the case at $19.

Melquizael Costa vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

We'll talk about plenty of fighters on this card with little experience or poor losses on their resumé. Neither of those apply to Melquizael Costa at this stage.

Costa's 1-2 start has run through Thiago Moises (7-6 UFC) on short notice at lightweight and Steve Garcia (4-2 UFC). On the flip side, he dominated Austin Lingo (2-3 UFC) for a +61 striking differential, three takedowns, and a submission attempt. I'm still a believer in the Chute Box product's slick striking, holding a +1.30 striking success rate (SSR) in these appearances. I also don't think we've seen the best of his grappling that resulted in six submissions prior to UFC.

He's a modest favorite over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, and Nuerdanbieke also enters off a KO loss to Garcia. However, his -0.50 SSR isn't nearly as inspiring, and Lingo is arguably a better win for Costa than any among the 3-2 record for "Wolverine". Those three wins came over guys a combined 5-14 in UFC.

This fight could get interesting if Nuerdanbieke's wrestling (2.90 takedowns per 15) can once again triumph over Costa's 42% takedown D. Yet, I'd fear for the underdog with that type of approach given six pro losses via submission and Costa's black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

In either realm, I expect Costa to endanger the underdog as others have. This is no squash match, but Costa's -200 moneyline doesn't seem particularly expensive for that type of advantage.

Betting Verdict

• Though treading a bit carefully around Costa's poor takedown D on paper, I do pick him to win this bout.
• Costa's inside-the-distance prop (+185) came in far shorter than I was expecting. He's got a path when Nuerdenbieke has been stopped nine times as a pro.

DFS Verdict

• We've got top-shelf MVP candidates to come, so I'll only scoop up Costa ($19) as the flex play with upside in this fight. Nuerdanbieke's only UFC win by finish came in a fight where foul play was unfortunately confirmed and Wolverine's opponent was banned from UFC for life.

Jeka Saragih vs. Westin Wilson

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

One of these heavy favorites is going to crumble, and this fight might set the UFC record for variance. It could be here.

Forgive me for treading carefully around Jeka Saragih at -355 when Saragih was a +430 underdog to Lucas Alexander (1-2 UFC) before a knockout in 92 seconds after a -7 striking differential. Saragih's first taste of the octagon himself was a TKO loss of his own to Anshul Jubli (0-1 UFC) in the Road to UFC finale.

Indonesia's "Si Tendangan Maut" is a better story than a fighter at this stage. His 40% striking defense is poor, and he's a novice grappler that has been finished on the ground in each of his last two defeats. Though occupying fight-ending power that has historically given Westin Wilson issues, the argument for his moneyline ends there.

At 35, Wilson is no prospect despite the 0-2 record. Yet, he's perhaps been too viciously written off considering the setbacks were to Joanderson Brito (4-1 UFC) on short notice and Jean Silva (1-0 UFC). Those are two of the brightest prospects in the division with excellent peripherals -- although boosted through first-round KOs of Wilson.

We haven't even really seen his strongest skillset in UFC, per 11 pro wins via submission. It makes sense with elite limbs for the division (73" reach). That's an organic match for Saragih's weak point if his chin holds.

I see this fight very different from oddsmakers, who presume Saragih finds Wilson's chin in short order. He's -110 to win by first-round knockout. That was the result of Wilson's first two appearances against superior competition.

Yet, Saragih's power didn't both Jubli, and if it doesn't bother Wilson here, I believe the veteran submits the favorite with similar quickness.

Betting Verdict

• Considering I see this fight as a wild coinflip, it's probably not the best betting environment. My lone bets here will be Wilson's round-one (+800) and round-two submission (+1900) props, leaning into the tendencies both of these fighters have shown.
  • I'm a bit stunned one of these outcomes is considered so much more likely than the other. It's critical weakness on critical weakness.

DFS Verdict

• I think you have to avoid Saragih ($20) at such a wide range of outcomes. Three other dominant favorites have such a superior floor to win and score fantasy points with an equally high ceiling.
• On the flip side, Wilson ($11) could be a punt that pays off with a quick finish. Tournaments will be decided in this fight.

Gabriella Fernandes vs. Carli Judice

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

A lazier handicap of this fight is that Gabriella Fernandes, 0-2 in UFC, shouldn't be this large of a favorite.

That's not my profile alone, but Fernandes' strengths certainly haven't been on display thus far. While she does have a positive striking differential at distance (+14), it's come at the expense of letting her two opponents control 74.6% of the time she's been in the octagon thus far. That's come from ceding 7 takedowns on 18 attempts, but the more discouraging part of her profile is that once she's down, she can't get back up.

Those issues aside, it's not like Fernandes' 47% striking accuracy, 47% striking defense, or -1.07 SSR are huge selling points. That's the broader story of her fight with Carli Judice for me this weekend.

Judice went 0-for-4 on takedowns during her DWCS bid, so I'm not even certain that she can get Fernandes to her back. However, "Crispy" Carli was a machine in a narrow loss to Ernesta Kareckaite (0-1 UFC), landing 11.20 significant strikes per minute with 57% accuracy. Her defense (54%) also trumped Kareckaite's. I thought she won the fight, and there's probably a reason UFC signed both.

In addition to the potential that Judice's wrestling is more successful on Saturday, she's a high-volume striker that was efficient when we last saw her. That -- not Fernandes' UFC record -- is why she's a solid underdog bet in this scrap.

Betting Verdict

• Though not a convincing amount by any stretch, I fired at Judice's moneyline (+132) and added Judice's decision prop (+210) when available given these two's 100% decision rate in UFC.
  • The latter is the better bet now given this line has shortened from +200 on Sunday.
  • Fernandes hasn't performed well enough at distance to just assume she wins there.

DFS Verdict

• Judice ($12) hasn't been stopped early as a pro or an amateur, so especially considering other favorites to come, it's her or pass in a fantasy setting.

Nate Maness vs. Jimmy Flick

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Even as someone appreciative that Jimmy Flick cashed a submission ticket in his last fight, it wasn't without adversity.

He had a -34 striking differential on the verge of losing via TKO, yet Malcolm Gordon (2-5 UFC) made a mistake to let "The Brick" do what he does best. He's posted 5.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes as a jiu-jitsu specialist, but everything else has been terrible.

His wrestling accuracy (26%) is poor, and his standup is non-functional at this level, per a -3.50 SSR. When Flick hasn't secured a takedown, he's been viciously knocked out within the first seven minutes. I'll trust Nate Maness' takedown defense in this spot.

"Mayhem" is just 1-1 at flyweight, but his two UFC losses coming to pair of Khabib Nurmagomedov's guys aren't too shabby. Tagir Ulanbekov (4-1 UFC) and Umar Nurmagomedov (5-0 UFC) are contenders in their own right, and Maness even went the full distance with the latter at 135 pounds.

Overall, his 78% takedown D has stood through superior tests, and he's the significantly better striker here with two career knockdowns.

Flick is entirely a submission-or-bust proposition, creating an obvious hedge to any Maness position in this spot. Having yet to see a third round at this level, he's also a huge reason why this fight is -650 to not go the distance.

Betting Verdict

• Maness' knockout prop (-210) is short, but it's easy to take a stand when Flick's submission prop (+750) is such a generous opportunity to hedge.
  • The favorite has only been submitted once in 18 fights, but his offensive submission tendencies in UFC (0.3 attempts per 15) haven't been there. That's a perfect formula to expect he won't take chances trying to submit the specialist.

DFS Verdict

• I see Maness ($20) as the card's best MVP candidate since he's least likely to grapple. Flick has surrendered at least 120 FanDuel points in each of his two UFC losses as Maness enters as the largest guy with the highest knockdown rate yet.

Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

The urgency in this loser-goes-home bout should be a sight to behold. Josh Quinlan and Adam Fugitt have combined for six early finishes in seven UFC bouts, and this one now has a roster spot attached to it.

Quinlan is a slight favorite given that his lone win came over Jason Witt (2-4 UFC), who had more promotional success than Fugitt's lone victim, Yusaku Kinoshita (0-2 UFC). Plus, "Bushido" did just take top prospect Danny Barlow (1-0 UFC) into the third round after going to a decision with Trey Waters (2-0 UFC). As a one-dimensional striker that's otherwise failed eight of the nine takedowns he's tried, Quinlan's -3.32 SSR is a damning indictment of skill in that area, too.

Fugitt has also faced a brutal strength of schedule, drawing Michael Morales (5-0 UFC) and Mike Malott (3-1 UFC) around the Kinoshita win. The Oregonian has exceptional height (6'1") and reach (77") for the division with a Muay Thai background, so it's pretty interesting he's also landed 3.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, too. He seems to have more well-roundedness to his game, and his -0.83 SSR is superior.

In this near pick 'em, Fugitt's variance of weapons and superior efficiency -- to this point -- have also come against what I'd comfortably call better competition. Plus, Quinlan's win over Witt was a bit fluky as a knockout in 129 seconds. While he could turn in another, Fugitt should be a heavy favorite to win minutes.

Betting Verdict

• I laid Fugitt's moneyline (+100) at +105, and he should be favored in this bout.
  • My entire process, based around per-minute performance in fights versus win-loss results, is designed to find potential value with guys like Fugitt, who has been losing but overperforming against tougher competition.
• This fight to start round three (-118) could be sneaky as both fighters manicure the fine details to avoid a tenure-ending loss. A longer fight only favors the rangier, well-rounded underdog.

DFS Verdict

• I prefer Fugitt ($13) to win at the slightly lower salary, so it only helps that he's also outscored Quinlan ($17) by 1.59 fantasy points per minute (excl. bonuses) to this point.

Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

I'm not sure I've ever fully expected a fighter to miss weight, but Jose Johnson is the first. He made it, though.

Johnson's 6'0" frame is -- somehow -- making the plunge to flyweight for the first time after a 1-1 start in UFC. In different matchups, I'll admit that it extremely interesting considering his +1.07 SSR, solid striking accuracy (60%) and defense (55%) that comes from unprecedented reach (71") for the promotion's lightest men's division. I just have no idea how he'll do this regularly. It's certainly not healthy.

The problem is, on Saturday, he'll be taking on an elite grappler than could almost certainly take guys down at 135 pounds, too. Asu Almabayev has smoked consecutive multi-time UFC winners behind 7.12 takedowns and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He's added a SSR (+1.60) that tops Johnson's from dominant work in close.

"No Way" Jose surrendered the only four takedowns of Chad Anheliger's UFC career in his last fight, and his 36% takedown D is awful. He's ceded 24 in four UFC-affiliated appearances, and Almabayev is the most accomplished grappler he'll have faced to date.

Johnson's length and size could carry him past other flyweights -- even some that are currently ranked. I like him in general. Yet, in addition to durability concerns from the cut, this is a nightmare matchup for him.

Betting Verdict

• I wouldn't blame anyone for looking at Almabayev's decision prop (+200) here. His finishing rate is just a modest 63.2% while advancing in competition.

DFS Verdict

• I was between Almabayev ($22) and another fighter for the second slot in my MVP hierarchy, and I nudged the other fighter ahead. It's a shame when any of the top three on this card would have been the unanimous top choice on last week's.

Garrett Armfield vs. Brady Hiestand

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

These bantamweight prospects stunned the competition as at least +195 underdogs in their last fight. Who keeps it rolling?

Garrett Armfield pushed his win streak to two, and a +71 striking differential in those bouts has him firmly circled on my watchlist. After all, his gym at Marathon MMA is 6-0 dating back to the start of July with two other wins overturned. The wrestling-based gym has left Armfield's takedown defense (64%) in a better place considering it was largely dented on short notice by David Onama (4-2 UFC) when up in weight.

He'll need that to hold to defeat Brady Hiestand on Saturday. Hiestand is a one-dimensional wrestler that trains with Michael Chiesa (11-7 UFC) in Spokane at Sikjitsu, and it's translated to the statsheet. Hiestand last used his wrestling pace (4.06 takedowns per 15 minutes) to tire out Danaa Batgarel (3-4 UFC) for the third-round TKO.

"Bam Bam" just struggles in the striking department and has lost the distance differential in all three fights as a -0.72 SSR would suggest.

This is exceptional matchmaking where both fighters will push each other in their previously weakest areas. Hiestand's strengths -- wrestling and endurance -- are Armfield's weaknesses. The favorite certainly has the power to make Hiestand pay, but two factors forced me onto the underdog.

First, this fight is -130 to go the distance, and Hiestand's pacing is significantly better. Second, Brady's striking defense (53%) is actually just fine on paper, and Armfield's lone career knockdown came against flameout Toshiomi Kazama (0-2 UFC). I think the 'dog grinds out a decision win.

Betting Verdict

• Without much faith in Armfield's power, this betting line has creeped a bit wide when, analytically, Hiestand is responsible at distance in addition to having the tools that have historically made the favorite crumble.
  • I haven't bet Hiestand's moneyline (+152) but lean that direction.

DFS Verdict

• We have so many gross mismatches on this card that Armfield ($18) would only have so much upside in a fight that has a decision trajectory. I prefer a punt to Hiestand ($13).

Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Timmy Cuamba will look to make the third time the charm after leaving the Apex facility disappointed twice.

"Twilight" won his 2023 bid on DWCS but was rejected for a contract offer, which led to a no-hesitation acceptance to fight Bolaji Oki (1-0 UFC) at lightweight in February. You simply take the ticket and worry about the rest later. By all accounts, Cuamba did well to earn a split decision loss there with a -27 striking differential above his organic weight class.

Given the circumstances, I don't want to hold his poor offensive metrics -- including a -1.70 SSR -- against him harshly when his striking (57%) and takedown (71%) defense exceeded expectations. Plus, he trains at Xtreme Couture, one of UFC's top gyms that has produced two different champions.

His career begins in earnest against Lucas Almeida, who made the most of a similar type of opportunity in 2022 by besting Mike Trizano (3-3 UFC). Yet, Almeida has struggled in consecutive appearances since that one; he was mauled by Pat Sabatini (5-2 UFC) for a second-round submission, and Andre Fili (11-10 UFC) flattened him in under four minutes with a right hook.

Almeida's striking (45%) and takedown (40%) defense are much more concerning despite coming at a bit higher level of competition. He also lost to Cuamba's teammate, Daniel Zellhuber (3-1 UFC), on DWCS in 2021.

The last two fights showed Almeida regress back to his peripherals when Cuamba's gym has already gameplanned a win against him before. The -172 price is a bit steep when Cuamba hasn't cashed a UFC win to this stage, but I believe he's favored for a reason.

Betting Verdict

• I'm a bit unsure of Cuamba's finishing upside, which should improve at 145. He's also got no pro wins via submission. I'm pretty good sitting this fight out from a betting perspective.

DFS Verdict

• If there's a fight I want to exclude in this realm, it is this one. The winner of a Cuamba ($17) bout has topped out at 62 FanDuel points, and Almeida ($14) figures to cede plenty of top control time if there's no early finish.

Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Miles Johns

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

This card is littered with inexperience, so Douglas Silva de Andrade and Miles Johns' bout was the only other one I could model outside of the main event. The problem? It didn't really help me. By all accounts, this is a close fight between two bantamweights that have at least a .583 win rate with UFC.

Silva de Andrade is much older at 38, but with age comes experience. "D'Silva" has always been a struggle for me with a subpar -0.33 SSR that a 1.11% knockdown rate makes up for in an instant. He's also not really much of a submission threat considering just 0.2 attempts per 15 minutes in a gigantic, 12-fight sample.

All five men to beat Silva de Andrade have at least five UFC wins, so Johns (5-2 UFC) would not be a shocking exception.

At the start of his career as a prospect billed with title aspirations, Johns' low volume (3.28 significant strikes landed per minute) was a failed prerequisite. However, in this "depth" role on the roster, I've come to appreciate his 68% striking defense and 85% takedown defense that just keep winning.

"Chapo" has an upward trajectory that should only continue after leaving a struggling Fortis MMA camp for Trey Ogden's team at Marathon MMA -- training with the aforementioned Armfield.

An eight-year age advantage, strong defense, and a new, thriving team were enough to choose Johns in ostensible pick 'em. Silva de Andrade's quick knockout of Gaetano Pirello (0-2 UFC) was his only win without adversity since the start of 2020, so this should be a close one.

Betting Verdict

• My model recommends has Silva de Andrade at +105, so it's showing a smidge of value that I'd rather not bet.
• I've also got the total as 66.5% likely to go the distance, which is much stronger conviction than FanDuel's -142 odds.
  • Given Silva de Andrade is aging, I'd sooner play Johns' inside-the-distance prop (+360) than the under.

DFS Verdict

• You could argue for leaving this fight behind entirely, but Johns ($16) does have knockout upside due to D'Silva's age. He just hasn't topped 50 FanDuel points since the start of 2022 despite three wins in four tries.
  • It's an underwhelming mid-range bout overall.

Tatsuro Taira vs. Alex Perez

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

Superstar Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira earned his first UFC main event this weekend, and a win over the fifth-ranked fighter in the division would make title contention a reality.

At just 24 years old, Taira has mopped entry-level competition for a 5-0 UFC start and seems to be getting better. He blasted Carlos Hernandez (2-2 UFC) for a +31 striking differential, including a knockdown and a pair of takedowns. At 5'7", Taira is arguably the gold standard for physical strength and frame at 125 pounds already.

Other than suboptimal level of competition and a 47% striking defense, there aren't holes I can poke in his profile. That striking D is also a bit misleading when never absorbing more than 25 distance strikes in a fight. His SSR (+2.36) is still outstanding.

UFC did well to match him with Alex Perez in this spot. Perez's 82% takedown defense is challenging to get down, but once there, he's struggled to lose two of his last four by submission. Even though Muhammad Mokaev (6-0 UFC) went just 3-for-20 (15.0%) on his takedowns, he still comfortably won a decision over Perez.

Perez's 1.22% knockdown rate is no joke, but Taira (1.15%) can arguably match him in punching power. The veteran's wins have come over opponents just 23-26 in UFC, and at this stage, Taira has beaten more multi-time UFC winners since the COVID break (3) than Perez (1).

I was surprised to see my model was largely behind the prospect.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Taira at 58.5% to win (-140 implied), but that's a decent vote of confidence when Perez is getting juiced for level of competition that destroyed him.
  • I wouldn't bet his -196 moneyline, but I've got his inside-the-distance prop (-105) at -115.
• The model has this fight 76.2% likely to not go the distance, which shows value against FanDuel's -260 number. It's a safer bet than Taira's ITD prop given six of Perez's eight UFC wins come early and within the first three rounds.

DFS Verdict

• I'm firmly giving Taira ($21) the silver medal in my MVP hierarchy when expecting him to win inside the distance. He's been a modest FanDuel scorer (3.75 fantasy points per minute excl. bonuses), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.