Meet the Researchers
![Photo of Michael T. Kiley](/https/www.federalreserve.gov/econres/images/michael-t-kiley.jpg)
Michael T. Kiley
Deputy Director
Program Direction Section
Financial Stability
202-452-2448
[email protected]
[email protected]
Education
- Ph.D., Economics, University of Maryland, 1996
- M.A., Economics, University of Maryland, 1993
- B.A., Economics, University of Delaware, 1991
Current Research Topics
- Financial Stability and Monetary Policy
- Inflation
Counselor
U.S. Department of the Treasury
2021Senior Adviser (Associate/Assistant Director), Research and Statistics
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2007 - 2017Lecturer
Johns Hopkins University
2016Chief, Macroeconomics and Quantitative Studies
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2003 - 2007Economist
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
2001 - 2003Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
1996 - 2003Lecturer
Johns Hopkins University
2000 - 2001Visiting Assistant Professor
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor
1998
- Growth at risk from climate change
Michael T. Kiley
Economic Inquiry (Forthcoming)
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13206
See also » FRB Working Paper (2021) - Central Banking Post Crises
Michael T. Kiley and Frederic S. Mishkin
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2024)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.035 - Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2024)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.033 - Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2024)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.032 - Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?
Michael T. Kiley
International Journal of Central Banking (2024)
See also » FRB Working Paper (2022) - A (Bayesian) Update on Inflation and Inflation Persistence
Michael T. Kiley
FEDS Notes (2023)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3349 - The Role of Wages in Trend Inflation: Back to the 1980s?
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2023)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2023.022 - Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2023)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2023.008 - Unemployment Risk
Michael T. Kiley
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2022)
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12888
See also » FRB Working Paper (2018) - Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk
Michael T. Kiley
FEDS Notes (2022)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3126 - Anchored or Not: A Short Summary of a Bayesian Approach to the Persistence of Inflation
Michael T. Kiley
FEDS Notes (2022)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3049 - Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2022)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2022.016 - What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?
Michael T. Kiley
Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102316
See also » FRB Working Paper (2018) - The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
Michael T. Kiley
Annual Review of Financial Economics (2020)
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-012703
See also » FRB Working Paper (2019) - Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2020)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.095 - Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2020)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.083 - What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?
Michael T. Kiley
International Journal of Central Banking (2020)
See also » FRB Working Paper (2015) - Monetary Policy Space in a Recession: Some Simple Interest Rate Arithmetic
Michael T. Kiley
FEDS Notes (2020)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2484 - The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.076 - Comment on 'The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest'
Michael T. Kiley
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2019) - Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment
Ben Bernanke, Michael T. Kiley, and John M. Roberts
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings (2019)
https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20191082
See also » FRB Working Paper (2019) - Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses across Structural Models
Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello, Francisco Covas, John C. Driscoll, Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, Michael Kiley, Albert Queralto, and Jae Sim
International Journal of Central Banking (2019)
See also » FRB Working Paper (2015) - Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy
Christopher Erceg, James Hebden, Michael Kiley, David López-Salido, and Robert Tetlow
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2018)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.059 - Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy
Michael T. Kiley
Manchester School (2018)
https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12238 - Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Gains and Pitfalls in a Model of Financial Intermediation
Michael T. Kiley and Jae Sim
Journal of Macroeconomics (2017)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.05.008
See also » FRB Working Paper (2015) - Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System
David Aikman, Michael T. Kiley, Seung Jung Lee, Michael G. Palumbo, and Missaka N. Warusawitharana
Journal of Banking & Finance (2017)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.04.013
See also » FRB Working Paper (2015) - Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
Michael T. Kiley and John M. Roberts
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2017)
See also » FRB Working Paper (2017) - Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Frictions for Macroprudential Policymaking: A Review of Pressing Challenges
Michael T. Kiley
FEDS Notes (2016)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1785 - Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model
Michael T. Kiley
Review of Economic Dynamics (2016)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2016.03.002
See also » FRB Working Paper (2014) - An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-Term Unemployment
Michael T. Kiley
Economics Letters (2015)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.10.005
See also » FRB Working Paper (2014) - Low Inflation in the United States: A Summary of Recent Research
Michael T. Kiley
FEDS Notes (2015)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1665 - Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination
Hess Chung, Edward Herbst, and Michael T. Kiley
NBER Macroeconomics Annual Book Series (2015)
https://doi.org/10.1086/680629 - The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and after the Zero Lower Bound
Michael T. Kiley
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2014)
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12129
See also » FRB Working Paper (2013) - The Role of Financial Imbalances in Assessing the State of the Economy
David M. Arseneau and Michael T. Kiley
FEDS Notes (2014)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.0015 - Bank Capital and the Macroeconomy: Policy Considerations
Michael T. Kiley and Jae W. Sim
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control (2014)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.01.024 - The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates
Michael T. Kiley
International Journal of Central Banking (2014)
See also » FRB Working Paper (2012) - Output Gaps
Michael T. Kiley
Journal of Macroeconomics (2013)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.04.002
See also » FRB Working Paper (2013) - Monetary Policy Statements, Treasury Yields, and Private Yields: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2013)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2013.16 - Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Statements, and Uncovered Interest Parity: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2013)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2013.17 - Monetary Policy and the Global Housing Bubble
Jane Dokko, Brian M. Doyle, Michael T. Kiley, Jinill Kim, Shane Sherlund, Jae Sim, and Skander J. Van den Heuvel
Economic Policy (2011)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00262.x - Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization- Based (EDO) Model of the U.S. Economy
Hess Chung, Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2010)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2010.29 - Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, Or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?
Michael T. Kiley
Review of Economics and Statistics (2010)
https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00019
See also » FRB Working Paper (2007) - A Comparison of Forecast Performance between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, and a DSGE Model
Rochelle M. Edge, Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte
Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010)
https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1175
See also » FRB Working Paper (2009) - How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
Jean Boivin, Michael T. Kiley, and Frederic S. Mishkin
Handbook of Monetary Economics, Vol. 3 (2010)
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53238-1.00008-9
See also » FRB Working Paper (2010) - Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2009)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2009.15 - Comments on 'Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy' by Christopher A. Sims
Michael T. Kiley
Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective (2009) - Estimating the Common Trend Rate of Inflation for Consumer Prices and Consumer Prices Excluding Food and Energy Prices
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2008)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2008.38 - Monetary Policy Actions and Long-Run Inflation Expectations
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2008)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2008.03 - Natural Rate Measures in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy
Rochelle M. Edge, Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control (2008)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2007.09.011
See also » FRB Working Paper (2007) - Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?
Michael T. Kiley
International Journal of Central Banking (2007)
See also » FRB Working Paper (2004) - A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting
Michael T. Kiley
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2007)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00017.x
See also » FRB Working Paper (2006) - The Economic Impact of the Computer Revolution: A Progress Report
Michael T. Kiley
Knowledge Economy, Information Technologies and Growth (2004) - Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective
Michael T. Kiley
Journal of Business (2004) - Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in the United States
Hannes Suppanz, Michael Wise, and Michael Kiley
OECD Economics Department Working Papers (2004)
https://doi.org/10.1787/334545122257 - Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?
Michael T. Kiley
Economic Inquiry (2003)
https://doi.org/10.1093/ei/cbg016 - How should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?
Michael T. Kiley
Topics in Economic Analysis and Policy (2003)
https://doi.org/10.2202/1538-0653.1066
See also » FRB Working Paper (2003) - An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy
Michael T. Kiley
Contributions to Macroeconomics (2003)
https://doi.org/10.2202/1534-6005.1089
See also » FRB Working Paper (2001) - The Lead of Output over Inflation in Sticky Price Models
Michael Kiley
Economics Bulletin (2002)
See also » FRB Working Paper (1997) - Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting
Michael T. Kiley
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2002)
See also » FRB Working Paper (1998) - Computers and Growth with Frictions: Aggregate and Disaggregate Evidence
Michael T. Kiley
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (2001)
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(01)00056-2 - Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
Michael T. Kiley
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2000)
https://doi.org/10.2307/2601091
See also » FRB Working Paper (1997) - The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress
Michael T. Kiley
Economic Journal (1999)
https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00470
See also » FRB Working Paper (1997) - Monetary Policy under Neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an Application to Price Level and Inflation Targeting
Michael T. Kiley
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1998)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.1998.27 - Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis
Michael T. Kiley
Journal of Macroeconomics (1998)
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00051-2 - Efficiency Wages, Nominal Rigidities, and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages and Marginal Cost
Michael T. Kiley
Economics Letters (1997)
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)81903-9
See also » FRB Working Paper (1997)
Last Update:
August 2, 2024