Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologyThursday, August 22, 2024
...Morning Showers and Embedded Thunderstorms Along the Western Peninsula...Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Across the Florida Panhandle Today...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Across the Peninsula With the Sea Breezes This Afternoon and Evening...Locally Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible...Heavy Downpours Could Bring Instances of Localized Flooding; Marginal Risk For Flash Flooding Across Northeast Florida and Tampa Bay Area...Warm and Muggy Conditions Statewide Across Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and Keys...Heat Advisories for Southeast Florida Due to Dangerously Hot and Humid Conditions...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Along Florida Panhandle and East Coast; Locally High Risk Far Notheast Coast...Minor Riverine Flooding Continues Across Suwannee Valley and West-Central Florida...Abnormally Dry Conditions Expanded On This Week's Drought Monitor Update...
Updated at 8:54 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind | Hail | Flash Flooding | River Flooding | Excessive Heat | Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide |
|
Locally Iso. Statewide |
|
NE FL & Tampa Bay Area Iso. Statewide |
Suwannee Valley & W-Central FL |
Southeast FL FL Panhandle, S FL, & Keys |
Far NE Coast FL Panhandle & E-Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain draped over the Northern Peninsula, interact with an upper-level disturbance and afternoon sea breezes to support a wet and active weather pattern. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the Florida Panhandle today (40-65% chance of rain). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have already begun to move onshore across portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida from the Gulf this morning. With more abundant moisture through the Peninsula, this activity will continue this afternoon with additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening with the sea breezes (60-80% chance of rain). Organized severe weather is not expected, but locally strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours of the day. Any thunderstorm could be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph) and heavy downpours. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding outlooked along portions of Northeast Florida and the Tampa Bay Area today. Localized instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out within heavy downpours across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas throughout the day, especially areas with saturated grounds and soils.
High pressure wedging over the southeast U.S. behind the frontal boundary will create breezy conditions with gusts upwards of 15-20 mph at times today and lead to a general warming trend over the next few days. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the state this afternoon, with portions of the Northern Peninsula remaining closer to the middle 80s. Heat index values will reach the upper 90s and triple digits (100-108-degrees) across the Central Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Keys later today. Heat Advisories will go into effect later this morning across portions of Southeast Florida where heat index values upwards of 105-108-degrees can be expected this afternoon. The rest of the state will likely see heat indices remain in the middle 80s to middle 90s.
Showers and thunderstorms will linger through the evening and early overnight hours as they slowly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Predawn and early morning showers with a few rumbles of thunder will develop across the Peninsula and coastal Florida Panhandle (30-55% chance of rain). Areas of locally patchy fog and low clouds cannot be ruled out overnight and early Friday morning.
Low temperatures will likely fall into the upper 60s to low 70s across North Florida overnight with middle 70s expected along coastal areas. Central Florida will also see low temperatures fall into the low to middle 70s tonight while South Florida and the Keys remain in the middle 70s to low 80s.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents can continue to be expected along the Florida Panhandle and the East Coast today with a low risk along the West Coast. A locally high risk is expected for far Northeastern Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights will reach 2-4’ along the Northeast and Central-East Coast today while all other beaches can expect wave heights to remain near 1-2’.
Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week (as of 8/16).
Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is not expected today. Lingering King Tides in the wake of the full moon may bring elevated water levels at times of high tide, and instances of localized coastal flooding for low-lying/poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out across Southwest Florida during the high tide cycle.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Fire Weather: Saturated grounds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms will keep wildfire concerns minimal throughout the state. Northeasterly winds gusting upwards of 15-20 mph at times behind a stalled frontal boundary draped over the Northern Peninsula will continue to bring drier conditions along the Panhandle. Relative humidity values will fall into the 50-60% range this afternoon, which may create localized pockets of sensitive wildfire conditions, especially for areas within abnormally dry conditions. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms are anticipated statewide today with the sea breezes, supported by the stalled frontal boundary. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lighting and erratic winds. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 15 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 84 acres.
Drought: Continued hot and dry conditions along the Florida Panhandle allowed for increased evapotranspiration and resulted in the expansion of abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions on this week’s drought monitor updated (8/22). Limited rainfall across portions of the Florida East Coast has also caused conditions to further deteriorate. Abnormally dry conditions now stretch across the Panhandle and along the I-95 corridor from Flagler County through Palm Beach County. Above normal temperatures and near to above normal rainfall are anticipated over the next week.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 246 (+4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no Florida Counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding outlooked along portions of Northeast Florida and the Tampa Bay Area today. Locally heavy downpours across the state could lead to instances of localized flash flooding for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. These areas are susceptible for earlier onset of potential flash flooding due to saturated grounds and soils from Hurricane Debby, as well as from recent rainfall over the last couple of days. Any training or slow-moving showers and thunderstorms could also bring multiple rounds of heavier rainfall over these areas, which could also increase the potential for localized flooding. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2” are expected today with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible. The Areal Flood Warning for southeastern Madison County remains in effect due to standing flood waters from heavy rainfall from Hurricane Debby.
Riverine Flooding: Numerous River Flood Warnings are in effect as rainfall deposits into the river basins. Minor flooding is ongoing along the Myakka River at Myakka River State Park, Manatee River near Myakka Head, Withlacoochee River at US-301 Trilby, Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates, near Hildreth, near Fort White , and Suwannee River at White Springs, near Suwannee Springs, at Rock Bluff , near Wilcox, and at Manatee Springs. The Little Manatee River near Wimauma at US-301 and Horse Creek near Arcadia at SR-72 are forecast to rise into minor flood stage over the next day or so. Additional rises within water levels cannot be ruled out over the next several days in response to locally heavy rainfall and backwater flooding. Any heavy rainfall that occurs across southern Georgia will flow downstream into already elevated water levels and allow for additional rises. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.10 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.04 feet above normal for this time of year.
