If Trump Wins

The Atlantic magazine has produced a valuable special issue that examines in detail the consequences of Donald Trump returning to the presidency in 2025. Two dozen tightly written pieces delve deeply into concerns usually presented as headlines, teasing out second- and third-order consequences. Anne Appelbaum, for instance, looks into the possibility that Trump will withdraw the United States from NATO. Even if carrying through such a move faces legal challenges, “the damage will have been done,” she writes, because NATO’s most important influence is not “legal or institutional, but psychological.” Once the Kremlin (and by extension, Beijing) sees that the United States is no longer firmly committed to collective defense, the alliance will lose its deterrent power. She then traces the effects that would have on South Korea, Taiwan, and Ukraine and on Europe more broadly. Even close allies such as Israel and Japan would have to reassess their dependence on the United States, and more and more states would have to hedge their bets. Eventually, the appearance of the United States in retreat would also weaken the country’s economic influence. Other articles give comparable treatment to specific issues, including threats to the military, to Democratic cities and states, the Department of Justice, abortion, women’s rights, efforts to address climate change, and immigration, to name just a few. Even the most well-informed reader can count on learning a great deal from this important contribution.