Amy B. Zegart
More books by Amy B. Zegart…
“Perhaps the most serious objection is what Tetlock calls the “wrong-side-of-maybe fallacy,” the risk of being charged with “failure” when an event doesn’t happen even when the intelligence estimate claimed there was only a 70 percent chance that it would. When it comes to likelihood, we tend to conflate maybe with sure thing.87”
― Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence
― Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence
“Technological advances (like the Internet) used to start in government and then migrate to the commercial sector.52 Now that process is reversed, with breakthroughs coming from large companies like Google and Nvidia and from startups like Ginko Bioworks and Dataminr.”
― Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence
― Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence
“Physicist Richard Feynman once said that analysis is how we try not to fool ourselves.129”
― Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence
― Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence
Topics Mentioning This Author
topics | posts | views | last activity | |
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The History Book ...: SEPTEMBER 11TH | 66 | 455 | Sep 11, 2023 01:12PM | |
The History Book ...: * CIA | 217 | 579 | Jul 30, 2024 05:56AM |
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