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X-Events: The Collapse of Everything
“Casti is at his best in presenting difficult philosophical ideas enthusiastically and lucidly, and in presenting everyday examples to illustrate them.”
— New York Times Book Review A page-turning exploration of eleven scenarios that may trigger the collapse of the modern world, from pandemic viruses to nuclear apocalypse to robot uprisings. In the twenty first century, our world has become impossibly complicated, relying on ever more advanced technology that is developing at an exponential rate. Yet it is a fact of mathematical life that higher and higher levels of complexity lead to systems that are increasingly fragile and susceptible to sudden, spectacular collapse. In this highly provocative and grippingly readable book, John Casti brilliantly argues that today’s advanced, overly complex societies have grown highly vulnerable to extreme events that will ultimately topple civilization like a house of cards. Like Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan meets Jared Diamond’s Collapse , Casti’s book provides a much-needed wake-up call, sounding a fascinating and frightening warning about civilized society’s inability to recover from a global catastrophe. An eye-opening and necessary read, X-Events is a shocking look at a world teetering on the brink of collapse, and a population under constant threat from pandemic viruses, worldwide communication breakdowns, nuclear winter, or any number of unforeseeable “X-Events.” Fascinating and chilling, X-Events provides a provocative tour of the catastrophic outlier scenarios that could quickly send us crashing back to the preindustrial age – and shows that they may not be as far-fetched as they seem.
— New York Times Book Review A page-turning exploration of eleven scenarios that may trigger the collapse of the modern world, from pandemic viruses to nuclear apocalypse to robot uprisings. In the twenty first century, our world has become impossibly complicated, relying on ever more advanced technology that is developing at an exponential rate. Yet it is a fact of mathematical life that higher and higher levels of complexity lead to systems that are increasingly fragile and susceptible to sudden, spectacular collapse. In this highly provocative and grippingly readable book, John Casti brilliantly argues that today’s advanced, overly complex societies have grown highly vulnerable to extreme events that will ultimately topple civilization like a house of cards. Like Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan meets Jared Diamond’s Collapse , Casti’s book provides a much-needed wake-up call, sounding a fascinating and frightening warning about civilized society’s inability to recover from a global catastrophe. An eye-opening and necessary read, X-Events is a shocking look at a world teetering on the brink of collapse, and a population under constant threat from pandemic viruses, worldwide communication breakdowns, nuclear winter, or any number of unforeseeable “X-Events.” Fascinating and chilling, X-Events provides a provocative tour of the catastrophic outlier scenarios that could quickly send us crashing back to the preindustrial age – and shows that they may not be as far-fetched as they seem.
336 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2012
About the author
John L. Casti
57 books20 followersJohn L. Casti (born 1943) is an author, mathematician, and entrepreneur.
As a mathematician and researcher, Casti received his Ph.D. under Richard Bellman at the University of Southern California. He worked at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, CA, and served on the faculties of the University of Arizona, New York University and Princeton University, before moving to Vienna in 1973 to become one of the first members of the research staff at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. In 1986, he left IIASA to take up a position as a Professor of Operations Research and System Theory at the Technical University of Vienna. He also served as a member of the External Faculty of the Santa Fe Institute in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, from 1992-2002, where he worked extensively on the application of biological metaphors to the mathematical modeling of problems in economics, finance and road-traffic networks, as well as on large-scale computer simulations for the study of such networks.
His primary research interests have shifted somewhat in recent years from the natural sciences to the exploration of questions in the social and behavioral realm. One thread has been exploration of the relationship between the social "mood" of a population its biasing effect on actions and behaviors. In this direction, his 2010 book, Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers, published by Copernicus Books, NY, addresses the directions and patterns of social causation and their implications for future trends and collective social events, such as styles in popular culture, the outcome of political processes, and even the rise and fall of civilizations. His most recent book is X-EVENTS: The Collapse of Everything, which addresses the underlying cause of extreme events generated by human inattention, misunderstanding, error, stupidity and/or malevolent intent. The English original edition was published in June 2012 by HarperCollins/Morrow, New York. The book now exists in 15 foreign editions, as well, including German, Japanese, Russian, Dutch, Korean and Portuguese.
As an entrepreneur, Casti formed two companies in Santa Fe and London in 2000, Qforma, Inc. and SimWorld, Ltd, respectively, devoted to the employment of tools and concepts from modern system theory for the solution of problems in business and finance, as well as health care. Qforma merged with SkilaMederi in June 2013. In early 2005 he returned to Vienna where he co-founded The Kenos Circle, a professional society that aims to make use of complexity science in order to gain a deeper insight into the future than that offered by more conventional statistical tools.
For several years, Professor Casti was a Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, where he created an initiative for the study on Extreme Events in Human Society. In January 2012 he left IIASA to form a new research institute in Vienna, The X-Center, devoted to the study of human-caused extreme events. The X-Center has now expanded to a network of affiliated X-Centers in Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, New York and Singapore. Since early 2013, Dr. Casti has been serving as a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises at the Stevens Institute of Technology in the USA.
As an author, Casti has written more than 120 scientific articles and seven technical monographs and textbooks on mathematical modeling. In addition, he was formerly editor of the journals Applied Mathematics & Computation (Elsevier, New York) and Complexity (Wiley, New York). In 1989 his text/reference works Alternate Realities: Mathematical Models of Nature and Man (Wiley, 1989) was awarded a prize by the Association of American Publishers in a competition among all scholarly books published in mathematics and the natural sciences. In 1992, he also published Reality Rules (Wiley, New York), a t
As a mathematician and researcher, Casti received his Ph.D. under Richard Bellman at the University of Southern California. He worked at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, CA, and served on the faculties of the University of Arizona, New York University and Princeton University, before moving to Vienna in 1973 to become one of the first members of the research staff at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. In 1986, he left IIASA to take up a position as a Professor of Operations Research and System Theory at the Technical University of Vienna. He also served as a member of the External Faculty of the Santa Fe Institute in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, from 1992-2002, where he worked extensively on the application of biological metaphors to the mathematical modeling of problems in economics, finance and road-traffic networks, as well as on large-scale computer simulations for the study of such networks.
His primary research interests have shifted somewhat in recent years from the natural sciences to the exploration of questions in the social and behavioral realm. One thread has been exploration of the relationship between the social "mood" of a population its biasing effect on actions and behaviors. In this direction, his 2010 book, Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers, published by Copernicus Books, NY, addresses the directions and patterns of social causation and their implications for future trends and collective social events, such as styles in popular culture, the outcome of political processes, and even the rise and fall of civilizations. His most recent book is X-EVENTS: The Collapse of Everything, which addresses the underlying cause of extreme events generated by human inattention, misunderstanding, error, stupidity and/or malevolent intent. The English original edition was published in June 2012 by HarperCollins/Morrow, New York. The book now exists in 15 foreign editions, as well, including German, Japanese, Russian, Dutch, Korean and Portuguese.
As an entrepreneur, Casti formed two companies in Santa Fe and London in 2000, Qforma, Inc. and SimWorld, Ltd, respectively, devoted to the employment of tools and concepts from modern system theory for the solution of problems in business and finance, as well as health care. Qforma merged with SkilaMederi in June 2013. In early 2005 he returned to Vienna where he co-founded The Kenos Circle, a professional society that aims to make use of complexity science in order to gain a deeper insight into the future than that offered by more conventional statistical tools.
For several years, Professor Casti was a Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, where he created an initiative for the study on Extreme Events in Human Society. In January 2012 he left IIASA to form a new research institute in Vienna, The X-Center, devoted to the study of human-caused extreme events. The X-Center has now expanded to a network of affiliated X-Centers in Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, New York and Singapore. Since early 2013, Dr. Casti has been serving as a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises at the Stevens Institute of Technology in the USA.
As an author, Casti has written more than 120 scientific articles and seven technical monographs and textbooks on mathematical modeling. In addition, he was formerly editor of the journals Applied Mathematics & Computation (Elsevier, New York) and Complexity (Wiley, New York). In 1989 his text/reference works Alternate Realities: Mathematical Models of Nature and Man (Wiley, 1989) was awarded a prize by the Association of American Publishers in a competition among all scholarly books published in mathematics and the natural sciences. In 1992, he also published Reality Rules (Wiley, New York), a t
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 35 reviews
July 19, 2013
UPDATED - 7/19/13 - see item at bottom
We are all doomed, I say, doomed! The only question is which event or combination of events will get us first.
John Casti offers an analysis of contemporary trends that focuses on an increase in institutional complexity. One result of this is that major upheavals, the X-events of the book’s title, occur. He is separating these out from natural events over which we have little control. Things like incoming asteroids, the God-based stuff (euphemism alert) of that “stuff happens” phrase.
I found his analysis intriguing, and in many instances it was compelling. But at times I felt that he was like a desperate Prince Charming trying to stuff over-sized stepsister piggies into his delicate solo Manolo. Sometimes complexity is not at issue, but the usual suspects, like Malthusian pressure, class warfare, greed, bloody greed, short-sightedness, garden variety corruption and stupidity, are.
Take for example the problem of potable water supply
He is on firmer ground when addressing complexity in telecommunications. But even there, is it primarily complexity that is problematic or the dark urges of our species to seek treasure and carnage in whatever environments we exist in or create? Think computer viruses. The complexity of extant systems is certainly a factor in allowing these creatures a new form of feces to fling, but it is not the complexity of contemporary systems that is at fault, only the dark side of humanity.
In the financial world, Casti decries growing national indebtedness. Yet he manages not to mention, in the case of the USA, that our national treasure has been systematically looted since 1980 by the monied class as they reduce their own taxes, while indulging in military spending in an unprecedented, and generationally long spree on technology and questionable wars. This is not complexity. This is corruption on a massive scale, classic class warfare, in which only one side is armed. I guess that makes it more like class slaughter. The changes in class distribution of wealth in the USA will happily support the contention. Nothing complex about that.
Some of his concerns seem more appropriate for X-files rather than X-events. The noosphere is not about to wake up and broadcast, “I’m sorry, Dave” (and for fans of League of Gentlemen, I would enter an ecstatic state were HAL to speak in the voice of Papa Lazarou) in hundreds of languages. On the other hand petroleum reserves are finite.
I know I may sound ticked off by what I see as Casti’s fixation. It is possible to over-analyze systems in trying to develop a kind of doomsday Theory of Everything, a la physics. But I did rather enjoy the book. Forgetting the overlay of complexity, Casti has offered up a list of serious concerns. The potential (or inevitable in some cases) problems he addresses are public policy issues that merit our attention. We should be concerned about our future water supply, about the expected 40-year exhaustion of crude oil supplies, about the vulnerability of our power grid and so on. For highlighting many of these concerns this book is compelling reading.
PS – If human-generated X-events are not enough to fill you up, consider for dessert a serving of spotted…no, not that…sun.
=======================UPDATE - Yes we are doomed
August 12, 2012 - More cheery news about drought from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as reported in the NY Times - Ya ain't seen nuthin' yet.
February 16, 2013 - Although Casti's book focuses on man-made miseries, the recent impact of an incoming in Russia seems relevant. Here is a piece or two from the NY Times on that.
July 19, 2013 - In my travels, I happened across an article in the April issue of The Journal of Cultural Anthropology (yes, just a part of my usual daily reading) titled Disaster: Integration. The author is Kim Fortun, a Professor in the Department of Science and Technology Studies at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (and not the unacknowledged love child of Bib Fortuna and Kim Novak). The piece includes quotes from this review and also quotes from some Massachusetts Representative named Markey. Who? And here we were thinking the likeliest external notice we would receive for our GR contributions would be an appreciation of potty jokes in the Journal of Jejune Jesting.
We are all doomed, I say, doomed! The only question is which event or combination of events will get us first.
John Casti offers an analysis of contemporary trends that focuses on an increase in institutional complexity. One result of this is that major upheavals, the X-events of the book’s title, occur. He is separating these out from natural events over which we have little control. Things like incoming asteroids, the God-based stuff (euphemism alert) of that “stuff happens” phrase.
X-events of the human—rather than nature-caused—variety are the result of too little understanding chasing too much complexity in our human systems. The X-event, be it a political revolution, a crash of the Internet, or the collapse of a civilization, is human nature’s way of reducing a complexity overload that has become unsustainable.Casti identifies eleven different, but inter-related, areas in which such X-events might occur. In each, he identifies the potential for catastrophic failure and considers what that might look like. These include a long-term failure of the internet, a breakdown in the global food supply system, EMPs reducing electronics to pulsing doorstops, weird destruction by exotic particles, nukes gone wild, exhaustion of the global oil supply, global pandemics, failure of the power grid and/or water supply, Battlestar Galactica, or if you prefer, Terminator-level takeover by intelligent artificial life and for dessert, global deflation and general economic collapse. What’s not to like?
I found his analysis intriguing, and in many instances it was compelling. But at times I felt that he was like a desperate Prince Charming trying to stuff over-sized stepsister piggies into his delicate solo Manolo. Sometimes complexity is not at issue, but the usual suspects, like Malthusian pressure, class warfare, greed, bloody greed, short-sightedness, garden variety corruption and stupidity, are.
Take for example the problem of potable water supply
Overpumping of underground water aquifers in many countries, including China, India, and the United States, had artificially inflated food production in the past few decades. For example, Saudi Arabia was self-sufficient in wheat harvesting for over twenty years. Now the wheat harvest there is likely to disappear entirely over the next couple of years due to a lack of underground water to irrigate cropsReally? These guys did not see this coming? Helluh-oh, deh-sert. What were you thinking? This is not a matter of complexity but of world-class arrogance and stupidity. Cash uber alles is not a viable program for securing the future of much of anything other than collapse and probably angering members of the underclass.
He is on firmer ground when addressing complexity in telecommunications. But even there, is it primarily complexity that is problematic or the dark urges of our species to seek treasure and carnage in whatever environments we exist in or create? Think computer viruses. The complexity of extant systems is certainly a factor in allowing these creatures a new form of feces to fling, but it is not the complexity of contemporary systems that is at fault, only the dark side of humanity.
In the financial world, Casti decries growing national indebtedness. Yet he manages not to mention, in the case of the USA, that our national treasure has been systematically looted since 1980 by the monied class as they reduce their own taxes, while indulging in military spending in an unprecedented, and generationally long spree on technology and questionable wars. This is not complexity. This is corruption on a massive scale, classic class warfare, in which only one side is armed. I guess that makes it more like class slaughter. The changes in class distribution of wealth in the USA will happily support the contention. Nothing complex about that.
Some of his concerns seem more appropriate for X-files rather than X-events. The noosphere is not about to wake up and broadcast, “I’m sorry, Dave” (and for fans of League of Gentlemen, I would enter an ecstatic state were HAL to speak in the voice of Papa Lazarou) in hundreds of languages. On the other hand petroleum reserves are finite.
I know I may sound ticked off by what I see as Casti’s fixation. It is possible to over-analyze systems in trying to develop a kind of doomsday Theory of Everything, a la physics. But I did rather enjoy the book. Forgetting the overlay of complexity, Casti has offered up a list of serious concerns. The potential (or inevitable in some cases) problems he addresses are public policy issues that merit our attention. We should be concerned about our future water supply, about the expected 40-year exhaustion of crude oil supplies, about the vulnerability of our power grid and so on. For highlighting many of these concerns this book is compelling reading.
PS – If human-generated X-events are not enough to fill you up, consider for dessert a serving of spotted…no, not that…sun.
=======================UPDATE - Yes we are doomed
August 12, 2012 - More cheery news about drought from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as reported in the NY Times - Ya ain't seen nuthin' yet.
February 16, 2013 - Although Casti's book focuses on man-made miseries, the recent impact of an incoming in Russia seems relevant. Here is a piece or two from the NY Times on that.
July 19, 2013 - In my travels, I happened across an article in the April issue of The Journal of Cultural Anthropology (yes, just a part of my usual daily reading) titled Disaster: Integration. The author is Kim Fortun, a Professor in the Department of Science and Technology Studies at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (and not the unacknowledged love child of Bib Fortuna and Kim Novak). The piece includes quotes from this review and also quotes from some Massachusetts Representative named Markey. Who? And here we were thinking the likeliest external notice we would receive for our GR contributions would be an appreciation of potty jokes in the Journal of Jejune Jesting.
October 9, 2017
I don't really buy into Casti's over-arching thesis that the disparity of complexity between one system and the adjoining system is the imminent cause of civilization's collapse. He performs too many complicated calisthenics to force-fit his examples into his framework for it to be convincing.
At times he argues that complexity is good, because it allows for flexibility, but then he says that when things are too complex they fail, because they can't adapt to changes. Which would be a solid argument if he were to be able to quantify the amount of complexity we need for robustness, but he never does. Probably because that's impossible.
The Fukushima nuclear power plant didn't fail because it was too complex when faced with a low-complexity earthquake and tsunami, it failed because human beings chose the cheaper route of building to the bare minimum safety standards. If the plant had a passive system in place to dump water onto the nuclear material -- which is just as complex as the design they went with, but more expensive to monitor and maintain -- then it wouldn't have contaminated hundreds of square miles with radioactive waste. Complexity wasn't the issue, being cheap was.
The other thing working against his thesis is his prose, which is unnecessarily cutesy. Towards the end of the book he says something about the "fat tail wagging the societal canine", which, come on. Ugh. Larry Niven once wrote that if you have something complex to impart, say it as simply as possible, but if you don't have anything complicated to convey then say it any way you want. The over abundance of frilly and obfuscating language here tells me even Casti doesn't buy what he's selling.
Yes, our modern world is at times stupidly complex which means it has fragile points where it might break down for any number of reasons, but it's not the inherent complexity that makes it weak, it's good old-fashioned ignorance, greed, short-sightedness and/or stupidity on the part of humans that causes it to be easily broken.
At times he argues that complexity is good, because it allows for flexibility, but then he says that when things are too complex they fail, because they can't adapt to changes. Which would be a solid argument if he were to be able to quantify the amount of complexity we need for robustness, but he never does. Probably because that's impossible.
The Fukushima nuclear power plant didn't fail because it was too complex when faced with a low-complexity earthquake and tsunami, it failed because human beings chose the cheaper route of building to the bare minimum safety standards. If the plant had a passive system in place to dump water onto the nuclear material -- which is just as complex as the design they went with, but more expensive to monitor and maintain -- then it wouldn't have contaminated hundreds of square miles with radioactive waste. Complexity wasn't the issue, being cheap was.
The other thing working against his thesis is his prose, which is unnecessarily cutesy. Towards the end of the book he says something about the "fat tail wagging the societal canine", which, come on. Ugh. Larry Niven once wrote that if you have something complex to impart, say it as simply as possible, but if you don't have anything complicated to convey then say it any way you want. The over abundance of frilly and obfuscating language here tells me even Casti doesn't buy what he's selling.
Yes, our modern world is at times stupidly complex which means it has fragile points where it might break down for any number of reasons, but it's not the inherent complexity that makes it weak, it's good old-fashioned ignorance, greed, short-sightedness and/or stupidity on the part of humans that causes it to be easily broken.
October 3, 2016
Freaky. Like anyone who's heard of/concerned about "Black Swans" (hence the blurb, from the conceiver of that concept), readers alive to the possibilities at the stray, stray end of the spectrum will find good conjecture done, here. A palliative to feeling too sanguine, or worrying about the wrong things, or relieving yourself from the burden of concerning yourself with the perspectives of those who worry about the wrong things: one can't afford to lack a grasp of the complexity of systems nowadays, no matter who in the mainstream (and even underground!) media seem to falter at getting their hands around it. You. Have. Been Warned.
Also a boon for science fiction writers! Boost yourself into the William Gibson-esque periphery, or at least out of the Romero- and Hunger Games-ripoffs zone.
Aim high, folks: I mean, really. What have you got to lose?
Also a boon for science fiction writers! Boost yourself into the William Gibson-esque periphery, or at least out of the Romero- and Hunger Games-ripoffs zone.
Aim high, folks: I mean, really. What have you got to lose?
June 9, 2013
Mais um daqueles livros que terminei de ler arrastado. Minha expectativa era a de grandes e emocionantes descrições sobre como seriam os eventos capazes de destruir a humanidade, enquanto o livro só consegue ser repetitivo sobre a complexidade dos sistemas humanos e apenas arranhar a superfície de como seriam tais eventos.
December 19, 2020
He should have called it triple X-Events, because this book is disaster porn. If you want to be titillated by what might go wrong, this is the book for you. It's neatly organized into a "thoughtful" introduction and classification section, then the bulk of the book is a deep dive into different disaster scenarios, and finally some proposals and suggestions how to go forward.
It's sweet stuff but thin, and the analysis is bald assertions and garbage.
First, a definition: an X-event is really bad, and more likely than you think. That about covers it. Casti though, covers it in a dozen pages capped off with a horrifically flawed mathematical concept aimed at the fat tail of a non-Gaussian distribution motivated by an impossible plot. I'm ok if people don't understand math but if they pretend to, that's wrong. Casti's degree and history says otherwise, so maybe he just overdid the dumbing-it-down.
The first chapter goes out of its way to invent jargon. Now, jargon's not bad. It provides shorthand to call into context a large section of background technical information. A great example is "strain" which means different things to civilians and mechanical engineers. While strikingly similar in general idea you and I think of, (it's a word well chosen) strain has very precise and valuable meaning to the engineer. Jargon is used gratuitously here, making up terminology that doesn't meaningfully add to words we already know.
Tthere are even categories defined for the jargon. Casti defines Principles, Severity and Likelihood as three dimensions of X-events. The definitions are just the noodling you do to decide what to write, unfortunately elevated to prose and put in the book so we have to wade through it. But what the hell, if you like that kind of thing, maybe it's foreplay!
On the severity axis, X-events are further categorized into Extinction Events, Global Catastrophes and Global Disasters. Always with the capitals because we are not using words here but defining new concepts, inventing intellectual property, forging forward towards our next PhD. More precisely we are fabricating complexity out of thin air because that's what you do when you don't understand your subject, you chop it up into bits and put them in cubbies and hope that atomic inspection will yield broader insight. Nope. (Sigh.)
The principals are worse, here is a grab bag of fun but unrelated concepts are other people's precious memes kidnapped and shrink wrapped for later exploitation. Here, forced cohabitation of these diverse and unrelated memes is unseemly.
Better, enjoy these ideas in their source material. If you're unfamiliar with Goldilox zone, Red Queen Hypothesis, Incompleteness Theorem or the Butterfly Effect, then you've got some really some great books to look forward to, instead of this one. Start with Richard Dawkins, James Gleick and David Foster Wallace.
It occurs now that I'm complaining about the front matter, when after all if you're here for the porn. You can just fast forward through all that plot setup after all. It's not very good.
Closing, I'll compare this book to two others he cites, each of which I loved.
The book presaging this one was Cat's Cradle. What an opus! Vonnegut reminds us all we need to know about the certain danger of trusting hairless monkeys with the keys to disaster-level technology: once you've made Pandora's box, somebody's definitely gonna knock it over with their elbow at a party when they put on the fast music and poof, we're all dead. Vonnegut can make that sentence poignant and funny and ominous all at the same time, and he did.
Another great read is Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies. It's this same book without the jargon, and treating things that've happened already instead of those that might. Tainter to his credit does not claim to solve the problem, but rather works to tease out a theme of eventually insupportable complexity. He never quite motivates why it wouldn't level off in a phenomenon of diminishing returns though he tries mightily.
There's still hope for X-Events. Just don't forget it's only porn. The titillating part of course is that this could all happen to you!
It's sweet stuff but thin, and the analysis is bald assertions and garbage.
First, a definition: an X-event is really bad, and more likely than you think. That about covers it. Casti though, covers it in a dozen pages capped off with a horrifically flawed mathematical concept aimed at the fat tail of a non-Gaussian distribution motivated by an impossible plot. I'm ok if people don't understand math but if they pretend to, that's wrong. Casti's degree and history says otherwise, so maybe he just overdid the dumbing-it-down.
The first chapter goes out of its way to invent jargon. Now, jargon's not bad. It provides shorthand to call into context a large section of background technical information. A great example is "strain" which means different things to civilians and mechanical engineers. While strikingly similar in general idea you and I think of, (it's a word well chosen) strain has very precise and valuable meaning to the engineer. Jargon is used gratuitously here, making up terminology that doesn't meaningfully add to words we already know.
Tthere are even categories defined for the jargon. Casti defines Principles, Severity and Likelihood as three dimensions of X-events. The definitions are just the noodling you do to decide what to write, unfortunately elevated to prose and put in the book so we have to wade through it. But what the hell, if you like that kind of thing, maybe it's foreplay!
On the severity axis, X-events are further categorized into Extinction Events, Global Catastrophes and Global Disasters. Always with the capitals because we are not using words here but defining new concepts, inventing intellectual property, forging forward towards our next PhD. More precisely we are fabricating complexity out of thin air because that's what you do when you don't understand your subject, you chop it up into bits and put them in cubbies and hope that atomic inspection will yield broader insight. Nope. (Sigh.)
The principals are worse, here is a grab bag of fun but unrelated concepts are other people's precious memes kidnapped and shrink wrapped for later exploitation. Here, forced cohabitation of these diverse and unrelated memes is unseemly.
Better, enjoy these ideas in their source material. If you're unfamiliar with Goldilox zone, Red Queen Hypothesis, Incompleteness Theorem or the Butterfly Effect, then you've got some really some great books to look forward to, instead of this one. Start with Richard Dawkins, James Gleick and David Foster Wallace.
It occurs now that I'm complaining about the front matter, when after all if you're here for the porn. You can just fast forward through all that plot setup after all. It's not very good.
Closing, I'll compare this book to two others he cites, each of which I loved.
The book presaging this one was Cat's Cradle. What an opus! Vonnegut reminds us all we need to know about the certain danger of trusting hairless monkeys with the keys to disaster-level technology: once you've made Pandora's box, somebody's definitely gonna knock it over with their elbow at a party when they put on the fast music and poof, we're all dead. Vonnegut can make that sentence poignant and funny and ominous all at the same time, and he did.
Another great read is Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies. It's this same book without the jargon, and treating things that've happened already instead of those that might. Tainter to his credit does not claim to solve the problem, but rather works to tease out a theme of eventually insupportable complexity. He never quite motivates why it wouldn't level off in a phenomenon of diminishing returns though he tries mightily.
There's still hope for X-Events. Just don't forget it's only porn. The titillating part of course is that this could all happen to you!
November 30, 2020
This is very much a work book. I am currently working on a project all around wild card events, and this book is all about wild card events. Actually, I have read the book many years ago, so this was something more of a refresher for me. It seemed weird reading about extreme events when a number of those written into the book have actually happened.
The book provides a framework of appraisal for wild card events - or X-Events, as the author calls them. They are, by definition, events that contain a very low probability, but which, if they were to occur, would have a very high impact. There have been attempts to complicated this framework by introducing plausibility, but I see this as an unnecessary complication. The introduction of plausibility lets in a degree of subjectivity (plausible to whom?) and confuses risk with uncertainty. Handling the subjective probabilities within a risk framework is a labour enough, without adding a degree of politics to the analysis.
There are eleven X-Events contained within the book. We have recently lived through two of them and are about to live through a third. X-Event 4 - the collapse of globalisation - could be how we characterise the lobal financial crisis and the resultant sequence of events. X-Event 8 - a global pandemic - is horribly familiar as I write this. Finally, X-Event 11 - the collapse of the global economy - is expected in the very near future. We could be churlish and argue that X11 and X4 are linked and occurred in 2007-09. However, that doesn't really suit our purpose and adds little to the conversation.
What the author missed, and what I see as important, is that X-Events may not occur singly. Often more than one occurs at the same time. This is why X4 and X11 seem so similar. This is why X8 has X11 following in tow, along with a bit of X4 as an accompaniment. I find this multi-collinearity to be of great significance and worth further study.
Some of the other X-Events have a degree of significance. We ought to be aware of the complexity of software collapsing in on itself (X-Event 1), we do need to be mindful of the consequences of a disruptive solar flare (X-Event 3), we cannot take for granted the global food supply chain (X-Event 2). These are all vulnerabilities in increasingly complex systems. I like the way in which the author uses a systems framework to analyse each wild card and to suggest ways in which we can either reduce or mitigate the inherent complexity within the system. In his view, problems stem from a complexity mis-match. I'm inclined to agree with him.
The author suggests a framework of early warning to anticipate future problems. That would be helpful for those originating from human activity. I'm not sure how useful that would be for naturally occurring disasters. My sense is that mitigation measures would serve better than warning measures. I guess that it depends upon the balance of unfolding time and impact time. The greater the degree of unfolding time, the longer we have to see it coming and to devise mitigation factors. Either way, these are conversations we could benefit from that we are currently not having.
For that reason, I see this as an important book that ought to have at least our passing attention. We ignore these things to our great cost.
The book provides a framework of appraisal for wild card events - or X-Events, as the author calls them. They are, by definition, events that contain a very low probability, but which, if they were to occur, would have a very high impact. There have been attempts to complicated this framework by introducing plausibility, but I see this as an unnecessary complication. The introduction of plausibility lets in a degree of subjectivity (plausible to whom?) and confuses risk with uncertainty. Handling the subjective probabilities within a risk framework is a labour enough, without adding a degree of politics to the analysis.
There are eleven X-Events contained within the book. We have recently lived through two of them and are about to live through a third. X-Event 4 - the collapse of globalisation - could be how we characterise the lobal financial crisis and the resultant sequence of events. X-Event 8 - a global pandemic - is horribly familiar as I write this. Finally, X-Event 11 - the collapse of the global economy - is expected in the very near future. We could be churlish and argue that X11 and X4 are linked and occurred in 2007-09. However, that doesn't really suit our purpose and adds little to the conversation.
What the author missed, and what I see as important, is that X-Events may not occur singly. Often more than one occurs at the same time. This is why X4 and X11 seem so similar. This is why X8 has X11 following in tow, along with a bit of X4 as an accompaniment. I find this multi-collinearity to be of great significance and worth further study.
Some of the other X-Events have a degree of significance. We ought to be aware of the complexity of software collapsing in on itself (X-Event 1), we do need to be mindful of the consequences of a disruptive solar flare (X-Event 3), we cannot take for granted the global food supply chain (X-Event 2). These are all vulnerabilities in increasingly complex systems. I like the way in which the author uses a systems framework to analyse each wild card and to suggest ways in which we can either reduce or mitigate the inherent complexity within the system. In his view, problems stem from a complexity mis-match. I'm inclined to agree with him.
The author suggests a framework of early warning to anticipate future problems. That would be helpful for those originating from human activity. I'm not sure how useful that would be for naturally occurring disasters. My sense is that mitigation measures would serve better than warning measures. I guess that it depends upon the balance of unfolding time and impact time. The greater the degree of unfolding time, the longer we have to see it coming and to devise mitigation factors. Either way, these are conversations we could benefit from that we are currently not having.
For that reason, I see this as an important book that ought to have at least our passing attention. We ignore these things to our great cost.
August 15, 2017
Il mondo in cui viviamo è cambiato in modo radicale nell’ultimo secolo. Per sostenere lo stile di vita industriale che si è affermato, nuove tecnologie, sempre più complesse, si sono sviluppate ad una velocità vertiginosa, incrementando enormemente l’interconnessione delle diverse strutture e dei numerosi servizi. Ma la globalizzazione ha un lato negativo spesso celato ma estremamente preoccupante, in quanto espone la nostra società moderna ad un rischio sempre maggiore di crollo scatenato da un evento X. Ma che cos’è un evento X? John Casti, matematico americano, autore di questo saggio, definisce questo evento come la via seguita dalla natura per ridurre un sovraccarico di complessità diventato insostenibile. La complessità può uccidere e lo farà certamente se sfugge al nostro controllo. Talvolta un evento X si genera nelle occasioni in cui la complessità di un sistema controllato supera la complessità del sistema deputato a controllare. Questo principio formalizzato con la “legge della complessità necessaria” è alla base delle sommosse popolari avvenute in numerosi paesi del nord Africa. In questo caso, la complessità del popolo (sistema controllato) è aumentata moltissimo in seguito all’utilizzo di nuovi canali di informazione (internet, social network, ecc.) che hanno favorito lo scambio di idee e informazioni. Il sistema che controlla (in questo caso il governo) arcaico e poco incline a rispettare i diritti umani non è stato in grado di aggiornarsi, di aumentare la propria complessità. Questo crescente divario tra i due sistemi ha portato in numerosi paesi ad un evento X, ovvero a diffuse sommosse popolari finalizzate a rovesciare i regimi autoritari. Casti nel suo saggio affronta una serie di eventi X che potrebbero manifestarsi nei prossimi anni. L’autore si è concentrato principalmente su questioni legate all’aumento della complessità nei sistemi controllati dall’uomo. Nel dettaglio ha analizzato ad esempio le conseguenze dovute ad una improvvisa e duratura interruzione di internet, al collasso della rete di distribuzione di cibo, al rischio di una pandemia globale o di una guerra atomica, all’interruzione della rete dell’energia elettrica e dell’acqua potabile, ecc. Quando si tratta di eventi X l’incapacità dell’uomo di scorgere le minacce che si profilano all’orizzonte spesso porta ad una gestione disastrosa della complessità che ci circonda. E’ fondamentale affrontare di petto la realtà per individuare un aumento di complessità eccessivo nel sistema, consapevoli del fatto che “scegliendo di non sapere rendiamo noi stessi più impotenti”. In un mondo come il nostro, costantemente esposto alla furia degli eventi X, l’unica alternativa realistica e percorribile è quella che porta ad una riduzione delle interconnessioni generate dalla globalizzazione. Dobbiamo accettare il fatto che gli eventi X accadranno inevitabilmente e dobbiamo di conseguenza prepararci ad affrontarli cercando di essere il più possibile autosufficienti.
December 12, 2022
O livro é muito interessante afinal o mesmo consegue abordar o tema proposto de uma forma única com uma linguagem bastante compreensível e um desenrolar que faz sua leitura valer a pena em cada página,os eventos são bem explicados e a “história" em si é bem desenvolvida sendo assim pra quem busca um livro para passar um tempo com uma leitura mais leve porém tendendo a ser mais reflexiva eu indico esse livro
Nota:8/10
Nota:8/10
November 5, 2018
Utilissimo, un po' ridondante solo se con altre mille altre letture sul rischio esistenziale e l'opera di Nassim Taleb.
Trappola della complessità, collassi di sistema, eventi catastrofici e apocalittici descritti con rigore e serietà.
Davvero attuali le parti su Unione europea e Arabia Saudita.
Uscito nel 2012 merita davvero di essere "scoperto".
Trappola della complessità, collassi di sistema, eventi catastrofici e apocalittici descritti con rigore e serietà.
Davvero attuali le parti su Unione europea e Arabia Saudita.
Uscito nel 2012 merita davvero di essere "scoperto".
July 4, 2022
Só li pq precisava pra faculdade, e nem li tudo. Não era mal escrito, só não é o tipo de livro que eu gosto. Era fácil de ler e tinham umas histórias interessantes, mas muito repetitivo também. Não curto muito esse tipo de livro
June 3, 2012
Too big to fail.
It's a phrase that has become so ubiquitous that even the Federal Reserve has a definition on one of its web sites. From the Fed's standpoint, an organization is "too big to fail" when it is "so important to markets and their positions [are] so intertwined with those of other [institutions] that their failure would be unacceptably disruptive, financially and economically." But the complexity and interrelatedness of institutions aren't limited to the financial sphere. There's plenty of backbone systems whose failure could border on or would be downright calamitous.
John Casti examines the issue and 11 potential human-caused scenarios in X-Events: The Collapse of Everything but he's not just a 2012 apocalypse fear-monger. To the contrary, Casti is a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, where he works on the development of early-warning methods for extreme events in human society, and one of a number of scholars in the field of what is called "complexity science."
At its most basic, a core theory appears to be that as society becomes increasingly complex, there is a point where all its resources are consumed just maintaining the current level. The next big problem is, in a way, the straw that breaks the camel's back and there is a "complexity overload." Some part of a complex system rapidly collapses and the adverse effects of this "X-event" forces the society to a much lower level from which it must/can rebuild. Granted, there are events that are beyond human control -- asteroids, tsunamis, hurricanes and the like. But here's plenty of potential human-caused events to make anyone ill at ease.
Among the 11 specific X-events Casti explores, some are probably less likely to occur, such as scientific experiments creating exotic particles that can destroy all or part of the earth or the creation of intelligent robots who eventually overthrow the human race. Most, though, seem wholly realistic, such as a a long-term and widespread failure of the Internet, nuclear war or terrorism, the drying up of world oil supplies, failure of the power grid or economic collapse. Perhaps even more alarming is the interrelatedness of these complex systems. As Casti points out, a failure of the power grid may well lead to the failure of the Internet. The failure of either could lead to economic collapse in a global economy in which commerce and finance depend on electronic transactions and information exchange.
Even a commonsense view of modern life indicates X-Events isn't far-fetched speculation. Consider the electrical grid in the United States alone. Despite being one of the most advanced industrial nations, there have been several instances over the years where large chunks were taken down by human error and led to cascading effects. Think the internet can't fail? Set aside the electrical grid and think of the seemingly inveterate trojans, worms and other malware in the system. Throw in government control in some nations, denial of service attacks and the like and, as Casti notes, "there are many ways to bring down the system, or at at least huge segments of it. The most amazing fact of all is that it hasn't happened more frequently." Throw in computerized trading and finance, let alone the concept of peak oil, and there's plenty out there to worry about
But Casti contends it's not all doom and gloom. To the contrary, the real message of X-Events is that if we are aware of the potential for human-caused X-events, they are avoidable or we can greatly reduce their potential damage. Casti warns, though, that doing so is "a painful, difficult, and time-consuming process." One of our foremost problems, he says, is recognizing the risks and when they may be escalating.
If there's a sense of foreboding created by X-Events it isn't just the potential events and consequences. In actuality, knowing of them is easy. The real difficulty arises in whether we have the political and social fortitude necessary to address them before an X-Event forces us to do so in dire circumstances.
(Originally posted at A Progressive on the Prairie.)
It's a phrase that has become so ubiquitous that even the Federal Reserve has a definition on one of its web sites. From the Fed's standpoint, an organization is "too big to fail" when it is "so important to markets and their positions [are] so intertwined with those of other [institutions] that their failure would be unacceptably disruptive, financially and economically." But the complexity and interrelatedness of institutions aren't limited to the financial sphere. There's plenty of backbone systems whose failure could border on or would be downright calamitous.
John Casti examines the issue and 11 potential human-caused scenarios in X-Events: The Collapse of Everything but he's not just a 2012 apocalypse fear-monger. To the contrary, Casti is a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, where he works on the development of early-warning methods for extreme events in human society, and one of a number of scholars in the field of what is called "complexity science."
At its most basic, a core theory appears to be that as society becomes increasingly complex, there is a point where all its resources are consumed just maintaining the current level. The next big problem is, in a way, the straw that breaks the camel's back and there is a "complexity overload." Some part of a complex system rapidly collapses and the adverse effects of this "X-event" forces the society to a much lower level from which it must/can rebuild. Granted, there are events that are beyond human control -- asteroids, tsunamis, hurricanes and the like. But here's plenty of potential human-caused events to make anyone ill at ease.
Among the 11 specific X-events Casti explores, some are probably less likely to occur, such as scientific experiments creating exotic particles that can destroy all or part of the earth or the creation of intelligent robots who eventually overthrow the human race. Most, though, seem wholly realistic, such as a a long-term and widespread failure of the Internet, nuclear war or terrorism, the drying up of world oil supplies, failure of the power grid or economic collapse. Perhaps even more alarming is the interrelatedness of these complex systems. As Casti points out, a failure of the power grid may well lead to the failure of the Internet. The failure of either could lead to economic collapse in a global economy in which commerce and finance depend on electronic transactions and information exchange.
Even a commonsense view of modern life indicates X-Events isn't far-fetched speculation. Consider the electrical grid in the United States alone. Despite being one of the most advanced industrial nations, there have been several instances over the years where large chunks were taken down by human error and led to cascading effects. Think the internet can't fail? Set aside the electrical grid and think of the seemingly inveterate trojans, worms and other malware in the system. Throw in government control in some nations, denial of service attacks and the like and, as Casti notes, "there are many ways to bring down the system, or at at least huge segments of it. The most amazing fact of all is that it hasn't happened more frequently." Throw in computerized trading and finance, let alone the concept of peak oil, and there's plenty out there to worry about
But Casti contends it's not all doom and gloom. To the contrary, the real message of X-Events is that if we are aware of the potential for human-caused X-events, they are avoidable or we can greatly reduce their potential damage. Casti warns, though, that doing so is "a painful, difficult, and time-consuming process." One of our foremost problems, he says, is recognizing the risks and when they may be escalating.
We've been coddled and protected to the extent that we actually expect our governments and other public institutions to solve all problems and address our hopes and needs without cost or risk to ourselves. In short, we've fallen into the misguided belief that everyone can be above average, that it's everyone's birthright to live a happy, risk-free life, and that any misfortune or bad judgment or just plain bad luck should be laid at someone else's doorstep. So the first step on the road to reality is to drop these visions of Utopia.
If there's a sense of foreboding created by X-Events it isn't just the potential events and consequences. In actuality, knowing of them is easy. The real difficulty arises in whether we have the political and social fortitude necessary to address them before an X-Event forces us to do so in dire circumstances.
(Originally posted at A Progressive on the Prairie.)
November 30, 2016
3.5 Not because I agree with everything, or particularly enjoy the horror-movie-ish thrill of getting all worked up by focusing on why everything, inevitably, is all going to fall apart!! Imminently!!
But because it was an enjoyably well-thought out reasoning exercise/thought experiment.
It falls down for getting a little bit histrionic (predictably), and also for being tediously repetitive. Yes, our culture and its supporting infrastructure is propped up by a fragile complexity - I get it! Don't say it over and over, and over. And over. And over, oh god, and over again...
But because it was an enjoyably well-thought out reasoning exercise/thought experiment.
It falls down for getting a little bit histrionic (predictably), and also for being tediously repetitive. Yes, our culture and its supporting infrastructure is propped up by a fragile complexity - I get it! Don't say it over and over, and over. And over. And over, oh god, and over again...
Read
July 1, 2012Casti's "X-Events" is a thought-provoking book that is worth reading. X-events are rare, unexpected events--Ugly Black Swans to modify the famous phrase popularized by Nicholas Taleb--that cause a system to shift abruptly and perhaps catastrophically from one state to another. The classic examples would be an asteroid strike or a super-volcano. Casti mentions these natural X-events only in passing, preferring to focus on possible collapses caused by human activity.
The author is an expert on the science of complexity, and his central thesis is that "complexity overload is the precipitating cause of X-events" (p. 299), at least those caused by human activity. Weaving concepts from Nicholas Taleb's "The Black Swan" into his narrative, Casti explores several plausible X-events: the failure of the Internet, breakdown of the global fuel supply system, widespread destruction of electronics by Electro-magnetic pulse, destruction of the planet by the creation of exotic particles, nuclear war, decline of world oil supplies, global pandemic, failure of the electric grid, disruption of water supplies, uncontrolled spread of nanotechnology (the infamous "gray goo"), and collapse of world financial markets.
This is not a book that purports to predict the future, although Casti sometimes seems to have way too much fun pondering how a given X-event might actually cascade through human civilization. His point is that X-events by their very nature are rare and unpredictable--it's not that any particular X-event will happen anytime soon, only that some kind of X-event (whether described in Casti's book or totally outside of our expectations) is likely to happen at some point. The question is, can we predict such an impending X-event? How do we react if one happens? And how do we clean up the mess?
Given the topic, "X-events" is surprisingly upbeat and hopeful, albeit sobering. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Definitely worth a look.
June 28, 2014
This is very much a work book - dull, not particularly well written, tedious at times, but worth the effort in terms of pay-off for work. At the time, I was working on a set of wild cards. I had developed a theoretical framework to generate the wild cards, but needed a bit of content to drop into the framework. That was where this book came in.
It provides a set of extreme events that are unlikely to happen, but could happen, and if they did, then our world as we know it would cease to operate. The author avoids the cliches, such as an asteroid strike, and concentrates on cases that he feels are reasonable possibilities, such as the failure of the internet, the failure of globalisation, a world pandemic, the depletion of global oil supplies. This is all very good if one is writing narrative wild card scenarios. It gives a bit of substance that a writer can develop.
That is on the plus side. On the negative side, the book is poorly written and a struggle to read. You really do have to work for the pay-off. It is also too hyperbolic for my taste and relies too much upon a dystopian view of the world. The author, in my opinion, overstates his case. He doesn't acknowledge fully the work of those who went before him, which is a bit unfair. Would I recommend the book? Not to the general reader. To a specialist constructing a set of wild card scenarios, it is a useful tool to have.
It provides a set of extreme events that are unlikely to happen, but could happen, and if they did, then our world as we know it would cease to operate. The author avoids the cliches, such as an asteroid strike, and concentrates on cases that he feels are reasonable possibilities, such as the failure of the internet, the failure of globalisation, a world pandemic, the depletion of global oil supplies. This is all very good if one is writing narrative wild card scenarios. It gives a bit of substance that a writer can develop.
That is on the plus side. On the negative side, the book is poorly written and a struggle to read. You really do have to work for the pay-off. It is also too hyperbolic for my taste and relies too much upon a dystopian view of the world. The author, in my opinion, overstates his case. He doesn't acknowledge fully the work of those who went before him, which is a bit unfair. Would I recommend the book? Not to the general reader. To a specialist constructing a set of wild card scenarios, it is a useful tool to have.
January 4, 2023
Um guia para otimistas soltarem seu lado mais pessimista em relação ao futuro. O livro mostra possíveis catástrofes que destruiriam a civilização como conhecemos, e como são possíveis de acontecer, mesmo que altamente improváveis.
Não vejo sentido em acusar o autor de alarmista demais, sendo justamente essa a proposta do livro; mostrar eventos que colapsariam a humanidade e como são possíveis de acontecer. Além disso, o autor não só nos apresenta a possibilidade desses eventos, mas também a improbabilidade deles. Por esse motivo considerei a narrativa de um "pessimismo-realista".
Apesar de o autor não apresentar provas mais palpáveis, um ponto negativo, ele tenta provar seu ponto mais com fatos históricos. Nos capítulos nos é apresentado eventos históricos isolados em que alguma catástrofe aconteceu e porquê.
Um ponto que me chama muito atenção e que gostaria de ressaltar é que: TODOS os eventos que dependem da ação humana de alguma forma são causados ou intensificados por conta de planejamento central. Isso só me mostra a importância da descentralização de governos e governanças para uma sociedade mais voluntária e livre (e aparentemente com menos chances de colapsos globais).
Não vejo sentido em acusar o autor de alarmista demais, sendo justamente essa a proposta do livro; mostrar eventos que colapsariam a humanidade e como são possíveis de acontecer. Além disso, o autor não só nos apresenta a possibilidade desses eventos, mas também a improbabilidade deles. Por esse motivo considerei a narrativa de um "pessimismo-realista".
Apesar de o autor não apresentar provas mais palpáveis, um ponto negativo, ele tenta provar seu ponto mais com fatos históricos. Nos capítulos nos é apresentado eventos históricos isolados em que alguma catástrofe aconteceu e porquê.
Um ponto que me chama muito atenção e que gostaria de ressaltar é que: TODOS os eventos que dependem da ação humana de alguma forma são causados ou intensificados por conta de planejamento central. Isso só me mostra a importância da descentralização de governos e governanças para uma sociedade mais voluntária e livre (e aparentemente com menos chances de colapsos globais).
July 23, 2020
Casti describes X-events as those which come about at unforeseen times and conditions, usually, which are disruptive of personal lives, cultures or even whole civilizations. Or even the whole world in the case of an asteroid collision. They can be natural disasters (e.g. erupting volcanoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, epidemics) or socio-political or economic events (e.g. stock market crashes, political revolutions - perhaps the election of Donald Trump would fit the description). They can occur, he says when two interacting systems become unbalanced by differing levels of complexity. He gives a number of interesting examples. Since the book was published in 2012, some items have been superseded by subsequent developments, i.e. one of his X-events is the world running out of oil. Since then we have had the fracking revolution which has made the USA a net producer of petroleum products and so the world running out of oil is pushed to the far future, assuming it happens. A stimulating read.
P.S. 2020 - I believe that the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 fits Casti's definition of an X-event. An unforeseen event that turns our lives upside down.
P.S. 2020 - I believe that the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 fits Casti's definition of an X-event. An unforeseen event that turns our lives upside down.
February 18, 2014
I found this book on the discount shelf at my local book store. What an amazing find, a great book and for a bargain price as well!
This is a thought provoking book to say the least. One might think that this book is just a mix of theories that are nothing more than scare tactics, but it's quite the opposite. Each of the X-Events is well researched and well rooted in historical facts which form the foundation of how each X-Event could occur.
What I liked most about this book was that it was grounded on the premise of complexity theory. In short, X-Events stand a greater chance of occurring when a complexity gap emerges between interconnected systems. For example, we have complex coupling between the power grids in North America, yet it's running on very old equipment.
This book is well worth the read, but be prepared to think about a lot of "what if" scenarios.
This is a thought provoking book to say the least. One might think that this book is just a mix of theories that are nothing more than scare tactics, but it's quite the opposite. Each of the X-Events is well researched and well rooted in historical facts which form the foundation of how each X-Event could occur.
What I liked most about this book was that it was grounded on the premise of complexity theory. In short, X-Events stand a greater chance of occurring when a complexity gap emerges between interconnected systems. For example, we have complex coupling between the power grids in North America, yet it's running on very old equipment.
This book is well worth the read, but be prepared to think about a lot of "what if" scenarios.
November 6, 2013
The author is saying that Extreme Events will happen when the significant gap(s) between 2 or more systems where the complexity of one another has increased to a level not tolerable.
It does help one to become aware and alert to such possibility by reading the cases he played out in the book to show what some of these areas can be when this will happen ... including power grid failure, food supply, pandemic, nuclear accidents, financial system failure etc.
One take away is to use observation/data of various "agent/component" in a system to determine its complexity (including complexity change) while in interaction with other system(s), hence anticipating and be ready for any disruptive events as a result of such build-up extreme risks.
It does help one to become aware and alert to such possibility by reading the cases he played out in the book to show what some of these areas can be when this will happen ... including power grid failure, food supply, pandemic, nuclear accidents, financial system failure etc.
One take away is to use observation/data of various "agent/component" in a system to determine its complexity (including complexity change) while in interaction with other system(s), hence anticipating and be ready for any disruptive events as a result of such build-up extreme risks.
January 20, 2014
This guy makes a really good case for the idea of X events -- things that have either never happened before or that have happened so rarely that we can't really predict them, and that are big enough to cause devastation to some parts of our civiliation -- and includes some information about how we can predict when something bad is starting to happen. To me, the scariest of the scenarios he outlines is the exhaustion of our oil reserves.
Maybe don't read this book, well-written though it is, if you already have a near-obsession with preparing for the collapse of our civilization. The ideas he presents have me thinking that building my own little bunker in the hills somewhere might be a good idea...
Maybe don't read this book, well-written though it is, if you already have a near-obsession with preparing for the collapse of our civilization. The ideas he presents have me thinking that building my own little bunker in the hills somewhere might be a good idea...
July 28, 2012
This book is an excellent overview of our modern-day house of cards, and it presents complex ideas in an easy to understand way. In fact the author is a complexity scientist with outstanding credentials who clearly shows how the mind-boggling complexity of modern life is leading inexorably to a horrendous international crash - a crash that will make the current Great Recession look like a walk in the park. I highly recommend this book even though the first 50 pages are a bit redundant. But stick with it, it's well worth your time, and you won't look at the world the same way ever again.
January 22, 2013
X-Events
John Casti
Beware when academics predict the end of the world. It will not happen with fire, flood, or earthquake. It will happen by boredom. The dry dust of academia will smother everything.
Not really. But, Casti’s X-Events won’t keep you up nights peering at a dark and dangerous world. I’ve heard of all of his scenarios before, as most readers will have.
Casti does not offer any solution as to how to avoid the events or how to survive them. In a way, he’s like a street-side prophet saying the “End is Near.”
And he’s just as effective.
John Casti
Beware when academics predict the end of the world. It will not happen with fire, flood, or earthquake. It will happen by boredom. The dry dust of academia will smother everything.
Not really. But, Casti’s X-Events won’t keep you up nights peering at a dark and dangerous world. I’ve heard of all of his scenarios before, as most readers will have.
Casti does not offer any solution as to how to avoid the events or how to survive them. In a way, he’s like a street-side prophet saying the “End is Near.”
And he’s just as effective.
January 22, 2013
X-Events
John Casti
Beware when academics predict the end of the world. It will not happen with fire, flood, or earthquake. It will happen by boredom. The dry dust of academia will smother everything.
Not really. But, Casti’s X-Events won’t keep you up nights peering at a dark and dangerous world. I’ve heard of all of his scenarios before, as most readers will have.
Casti does not offer any solution as to how to avoid the events or how to survive them. In a way, he’s like a street-side prophet saying the “End is Near.”
And he’s just as effective.
John Casti
Beware when academics predict the end of the world. It will not happen with fire, flood, or earthquake. It will happen by boredom. The dry dust of academia will smother everything.
Not really. But, Casti’s X-Events won’t keep you up nights peering at a dark and dangerous world. I’ve heard of all of his scenarios before, as most readers will have.
Casti does not offer any solution as to how to avoid the events or how to survive them. In a way, he’s like a street-side prophet saying the “End is Near.”
And he’s just as effective.
February 15, 2014
Sensationalism, with a few pages of good ideas (where he explains 7 factors leading to an "Xevent", of which 6 make sense...) Black Swans and the Five Stages of Collapse and Normal Accidents are all better looks at these concepts. Dmitri Orlov in particular is great at looking at the interactions of several of these - debt, peak oil and global warming - which this book treats as more or less unrelated, which is just dumb. In trying to be original, he ignores the most dangerous problems - so we're treated to what-ifs on intelligent machines but he doesn't talk about global warming.
July 17, 2014
X-Events was a well-written book about plausible extinction events. It was divided into three sections - sort of an introduction to X-events, covering some that have already happened in the planet's history, the X-event scenarios, and then an evaluation of the plausibility of the X-events. There was no hype or partisanship, at least no partisanship that was obvious to me; the scenarios were clear and well-balanced. Makes me think I need to start reading the disaster prep books again.
October 12, 2012
Thought provoking and interesting. Sometimes technical and hard to grasp. He has a definite bias against "hoarders" and his idea that they contribute to the collapse. Yet his description of the power outage his wife endured and her "lugging water" made me question his ability to take the theory and translate to the practical.
March 7, 2014
Achei o livro sensacionalista. Em algumas partes o autor cita supostos estudos e pesquisas, mas se esquece de trazer as fontes e as devidas referências.
Algumas boas idéias em certos trechos, mas a maior parte é feita de suposições absurdas e "viajadas" demais. Não considero um livro sério para o assunto ao qual se propôs.
Algumas boas idéias em certos trechos, mas a maior parte é feita de suposições absurdas e "viajadas" demais. Não considero um livro sério para o assunto ao qual se propôs.
July 28, 2016
This is not a fast scifi read. It's an intellectual trek through world killing scenarios.
Logical theories are presented in scientific method. Anyone who read this book might have predicted Brexit. :)
I borrowed this book from the library and then decided to purchase my own copy. It's worth reading.
Logical theories are presented in scientific method. Anyone who read this book might have predicted Brexit. :)
I borrowed this book from the library and then decided to purchase my own copy. It's worth reading.
July 1, 2013
Not the book I expected. Interesting, yet off the wall and somewhat of a let down. The topics he deals with are mostly the rare world changing events like asteroids and man made disasters that could happen. I had expected a more scientific treatment based on extant literature that does exist.
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July 31, 2012This book had me alternating between sheer terror and boredom. He tried to keep professional "jargon" out of the book but failed. It sometimes got a little technical for me.
Interesting read - but definitely not for the faint of heart.
Interesting read - but definitely not for the faint of heart.
October 13, 2012
Some things I hadn't heard of before
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