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The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves
In this groundbreaking book, Keith Law, baseball writer for The Athletic and author of the acclaimed Smart Baseball, offers an era-spanning dissection of some of the best and worst decisions in modern baseball, explaining what motivated them, what can be learned from them, and how their legacy has shaped the game.For years, Daniel Kahneman’s iconic work of behavioral science Thinking Fast and Slow has been required reading in front offices across Major League Baseball. In this smart, incisive, and eye-opening book, Keith Law applies Kahneman’s ideas about decision making to the game itself.
Baseball is a sport of decisions. Some are so small and routine they become the building blocks of the game itself—what pitch to throw or when to swing away. Others are so huge they dictate the future of franchises—when to make a strategic trade for a chance to win now, or when to offer a millions and a multi-year contract for a twenty-eight-year-old star. These decisions have long shaped the behavior of players, managers, and entire franchises. But as those choices have become more complex and data-driven, knowing what’s behind them has become key to understanding the sport. This fascinating, revelatory work explores as never before the essential What were they thinking?
Combining behavioral science and interviews with executives, managers, and players, Keith Law analyzes baseball’s biggest decision making successes and failures, looking at how gambles and calculated risks of all sizes and scales have shaped the sport, and how the game’s ongoing data revolution is rewriting decades of accepted decision making. In the process, he explores questions that have long been debated, from whether throwing harder really increases a player’s risk of serious injury to whether teams actually “overvalue” trade prospects.
Bringing his analytical and combative style to some of baseball’s longest running debates, Law deepens our knowledge of the sport in this entertaining work that is both fun and deeply informative.
Baseball is a sport of decisions. Some are so small and routine they become the building blocks of the game itself—what pitch to throw or when to swing away. Others are so huge they dictate the future of franchises—when to make a strategic trade for a chance to win now, or when to offer a millions and a multi-year contract for a twenty-eight-year-old star. These decisions have long shaped the behavior of players, managers, and entire franchises. But as those choices have become more complex and data-driven, knowing what’s behind them has become key to understanding the sport. This fascinating, revelatory work explores as never before the essential What were they thinking?
Combining behavioral science and interviews with executives, managers, and players, Keith Law analyzes baseball’s biggest decision making successes and failures, looking at how gambles and calculated risks of all sizes and scales have shaped the sport, and how the game’s ongoing data revolution is rewriting decades of accepted decision making. In the process, he explores questions that have long been debated, from whether throwing harder really increases a player’s risk of serious injury to whether teams actually “overvalue” trade prospects.
Bringing his analytical and combative style to some of baseball’s longest running debates, Law deepens our knowledge of the sport in this entertaining work that is both fun and deeply informative.
268 pages, Kindle Edition
First published April 21, 2020
About the author
Keith Law
7 books89 followersKeith Law is a senior baseball writer for ESPN.com and ESPN Scouts, Inc. He was formerly a writer for Baseball Prospectus and worked in the front office for the Toronto Blue Jays. He is a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America.
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April 11, 2024
Identifying the questions you must ask and the data or evidence you will need is the first step in decision-making, and you can do that more effectively once you’re aware of the pitfalls posed by the cognitive biases and illusions I’ve cited in this book.Bob Feller is reported to have said “Baseball is only a game, a game of inches, and lots of luck.” There is plenty of truth in that. But with the technological advances we have seen in the last decade, it may be that baseball has become a game of microns and milliseconds.
The benefit of having so much more data available today than has ever been at the fingertips of field or general managers, not to mention bookmakers and bettors, (that means you, Pete) is that what’s been considered revealed wisdom in the national game can now be subjected to ever more penetrating analysis. What that analysis reveals is that many presumably valid ideas have now been shown to be demonstrably false. So why do so many baseball pros continue to rely on notions that are nonsense? Keith Law has some answers for that.
Keith Law - image from The Athletic
In The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith argues that what makes a so-called free economy productive is that people will act with a rational self-interest to pursue desired ends. Did Smith ever actually meet people? Sure, we have the capacity for rational thinking. And we even use it sometimes. But it is only one factor in how decisions are made. Decisions must, for good or ill (mostly ill), pass through a gauntlet of possible errors and biases. Law has pulled together a rich collection of poor excuses. We are all subject to biases, fallacies, aversions, and other non-rational forces of one sort and another, but ferreting out where irrational tilt lies is in the realm of psychology, and its dismal relation, economics.
Law has been known to take on purveyors of bullshit before. You might enjoy his Twitter exchange with evolution-denier, Kurt Shilling, here. ESPN actually suspended his Twitter account for a while (without suspending Shilling’s) which suggests that they have a lot of evolving to do. He took considerable umbrage with purveyors of baseball-related bullshit in his first book, Smart Baseball. Tilting at the windmills of bovine droppings is clearly Law’s thing. And we are all the better-informed on account of that.
In the highlighted paragraph at the top of this review, Law makes clear that while it is baseball that he is using for his examples, it is a wider reality that he hopes to influence. In doing so he espouses the wisdom to be found in a seminal work of behavioral science, Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, which is referenced throughout. He bolsters his analysis with references to research done by other experts as well.
There are thirteen chapters in the book, well fourteen if you add the Conclusion, each looking in some detail at particular types of bias, showing how that bias, or those biases impact decision-making, by players, umpires, field managers, team owners, and probably you and me. He offers not only backup on the theories behind each, but demonstrates the applicability of the theory with very real-world baseball examples. If you are averse to strong-opinions, Law may turn you off. He showed some rough tonal ledges in his first book, mostly absent here, but if you still believe that your best hitter should bat third, and that Joe Dimaggio deserved the MVP over Ted Williams in the year when the former hit in 56 consecutive games and the latter hit 406, you should be prepared to back those opinions up with facts, because Law can, and he makes perrsuasive arguments.
One thing that Law does not do is dabble much in politics. It is clear from his introduction that it is his intent to show how biases enter into our judgments in all sorts of ways. Baseball is the lens through which he shows how diverse biases impact decisions in a bad way. But he wants to show how they impact all our decisions. Political creature that I am, a full Notre Dame (before the fire) of clanging bells was pushing my application of Law’s lessons to the political arena. Here are a couple of examples.
Law looks at the success of manager Bob Brenly’s 2001 World Series vs the Yankees. The D’Backs won the series despite, not because of, Brenly’s decision-making. Law offers a considerable stack of judgmental errors Brenly made that should have resulted in his team being drubbed. Yet, the D’Backs won, and thus Brenly will evermore be known as a World-Series-winning manager. This is outcome bias. Results matter more than anything. But only if you are not interested in the future. Could a bad manager expect to have success going forward with the same set of instincts? Not bloody likely. Law quotes Thinking, Fast and Slow for this:
We are prone to blame decision makers for good decisions that worked out badly and to give them too little credit for successful moves that appear obvious only after the fact.Fifty two Americans were taken hostage in Iran on November 4, 1979, after Iranian students took over the American embassy in Tehran. In April, 1980, President Carter ordered a rescue mission. The attempt failed, and Carter’s re-election prospects were irretrievably damaged as a result. There were plenty of other forces at play, including the GOP indulging in secret negotiations with Iran to encourage them to hang onto the captives until after the November 1980 elections, and the ABC show Nightline dedicating their nightly coverage to the “Hostage Crisis,” making sure to keep the issue at the top of everyone’s consciousness for the entirety of the election season. Whatever one may think of Jimmy Carter as president, it was a daring move to attempt a rescue. The failure was not his. It was in the implementation of Operation Eagle Claw. Yet, Carter took the blame for it, unfairly in my view. Results matter, but they are not all that matters. The unsuccessful resolution of the hostage crisis before the November 1980 elections doomed Carter, even though he made the best decision possible under impossible circumstance. He might have lost anyway, but the failure of the rescue mission made that loss a certainty.
The illusory truth effect.
Why do we cling to truths long after they’ve been disproven or lost their usefulness? Is it really just a matter of hearing something preached as true so frequently that our minds accept them not just as fact, but as the default perspective that must be actively dislodged by the jaws of life? Yes, as it turns out.In his examples, Law writes about batter protection in a lineup. (A batter will get a juicier selection of pitches to swing at if the batter following him is a more dangerous hitter.) Turns out there is no real statistical evidence to support the notion. Yet, through persistent repetition over time, by people who should know better, belief in lineup protection persists.
Can any of you offer a real-world number for how many times you have heard Donald Trump speak the words “no collusion?” I doubt any of us who do not live in caves really can. And if you are an adherent to right-wing media, Fox, Rush, Sinclair, or the like, you are probably speaking it aloud in your sleep, to the alarm of your bed-partner. Despite a detailed commission report that offers fine detail on just how that collusion was carried out, there are still people who believe that Trump did not collude with Russia in his 2016 presidential campaign. There are probably even people who are not of the cultish right who harbor doubts about it. It is pretty clear that repeating something over and over and over and over and over…continued ad nauseum, has the same effect on reason that the Colorado River had on the landscape of the Grand Canyon.
I could go on, but you get the idea. Law identifies a passel of these, including anchoring, availability, hindsight, optimism, order, outcome, recency, status quo and survivorship biases. He tosses in a handful of fallacies, some aversions, and a soupçon of other irrational tiltings.
I do not really have any gripes with the book, but there was one instance in particular in which I thought Law tilted the wrong way.
When a specific fact or example comes to mind more readily, we tend to overemphasize that fact or example—maybe we ascribe too much importance to it, or perhaps we extrapolate and assume that that example is representative of the whole. This phenomenon is called availability bias, and I think it’s one of the easiest biases to understand but one of the hardest to catch in yourself, because it’s not just natural, but easy. Your brain is just doing what you asked, right? You thought about some question, and your brain went right to the hard drive and pulled out something relevant. Your brain didn’t go to the archives, although, and it probably just gave you one thing when you actually needed the whole set.I believe Law dismisses a concern that should be obvious. For example, he regards the selection of the last place Cubs’ Andre Dawson for the 1987 MVP as a travesty, given that his numbers were bested by several players in the league. But that presumes that numbers are the only things worth considering in casting those ballots. Dawson, as Law notes, had taken on collusion by MLB ownership in their attempt to protect the notorious reserve clause. He offered the Cubs a contract with the salary left blank. He would play for any amount of money. It forced the Cubs’ owner’s hand, and helped advance the cause of possible free agency. His statistical value as a player may have been well below that of some other players, but his courage, and sheer value to the game was unparalleled. It was for this that he was likely rewarded by MVP voters. In this instance, Law contends that it was Dawson’s being in the news every day in coverage of the free agency issue that won him the award, the availability bias of frequent and recent repetition that moved voting Dawson’s way.
But do not be put off by that. There is a vast amount to love in The Inside Game. It offers a way to explain not only why so much misunderstanding bedevils baseball, but how such misunderstandings permeate all human activity. It is a look not just inside how baseball decisions are made, but how perspectives and decisions are arrived at inside our own heads.
2020 was a lost year for baseball, entirely for the minors, and largely for the top tier. 2021 again offered a 162 game season. Given that hospitalizations for Covid in Spring 2021, despite increasing numbers of people being vaccinated, have been increasing, made that prospect less than certain. The first game of the season for my Mets, for example, did not go off as hoped because at least one Washington Nationals player had come down with Covid, and at least four others were contact-traced into quarantine. You may find yourself with a few baseball-watching hours freed up by such forms of misery. If so, you can sustain your connection to the national pastime by passing some productive time with Keith Law. It will help you prepare for what games are actually being played in MLB, given whatever plague is making the rounds when you get to it, and offer you the bonus of offering insightful information about the wider world, and how we frail humans function. Check this one out. It’s the right call.
Review posted – March 27, 2020
Publication dates
----------April 21, 2020 - hardcover
----------April 6, 2021 - trade paperback
=============================EXTRA STUFF
Links to the author’s personal, Twitter and FB pages
You should know that his personal site is for things unrelated to sports. He had a blog on ESPN, but one must sign in to get the full benefit, and he no longer work there. These days he is a sen ior baseball writer for The Athletic, also a pay site. You can find his podcast for them here.
My review of the author’s prior book
-----2017 - Smart Baseball
Interview
-----Hittin' Season - Episode #376 - with John Stolnis
Thanks to GR friend (although, sadly, a Phillies fan) Regina Wilson for letting us know about this excellent interview
Items of Interest
-----Baseball Prospectus - Going Streaking by Russell Carleton
-----Fangraphs
-----Wiki on Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow
----- Wiki on Richard Thaler’s book Nudge
-----Wiki on Richard Thaler’s book Misbehaving
-----Baseball’s reserve clause
----- Operation Eagle Claw
September 4, 2020
Keith Law's book is about how human beings' cognitive biases affect the game of baseball, such a s calling balls and strikes and how a 3-0 pitch is more likely to be called a strike while an 0-2 pitch is more likely to be called a ball. Each chapter goes after a different cognitive bias and how that leads to incorrect snap decision making, such as continuing to play an aging star because you have already paid him millions of dollars.
The book is interesting and well-researched. However, the book doesn't have enough baseball stories for me. Because Law is still a baseball writer, he's reluctant to go after or tell stories about players (except for Albert Pujols) or management. When I read a book about baseball, I want to read inside information and stories I can't get elsewhere. There are a couple in the final chapter where he talks to front offices about outliers where they made the correct decision like the Red Sox drafting the 5' 6" Dustin Pedroia with their top pick, but that's it. The lack of stories are what made this on OK baseball book compared to a great baseball book.
Received a review copy from William Morrow and Edelweiss. All thoughts are my own and in no way influenced by the aforementioned.
The book is interesting and well-researched. However, the book doesn't have enough baseball stories for me. Because Law is still a baseball writer, he's reluctant to go after or tell stories about players (except for Albert Pujols) or management. When I read a book about baseball, I want to read inside information and stories I can't get elsewhere. There are a couple in the final chapter where he talks to front offices about outliers where they made the correct decision like the Red Sox drafting the 5' 6" Dustin Pedroia with their top pick, but that's it. The lack of stories are what made this on OK baseball book compared to a great baseball book.
Received a review copy from William Morrow and Edelweiss. All thoughts are my own and in no way influenced by the aforementioned.
June 23, 2020
I think we may have reached the saturation point for books about baseball analysis. I'm as big of a baseball nerd as you'll find so I usually eat this stuff right up, but even I had to admit to myself that there just wasn't much to this. Fairly basic psychological and economic concepts are tied to examples from baseball, none of which will be new to the sort of fan who's likely to seek out this kind of book.
Also: it's not quite right to describe this book as "poorly edited" or anything, but there were just some... weird technical things along the way. One chapter is entitled "Pete Rose's Lionel Hutz Defense" which is sure going to be confusing to someone who doesn't know the Lionel Hutz character from the Simpsons, because Hutz isn't mentioned at all in the chapter. That's weird, right?? (I'm an early-season Simpsons nerd too - and I wasted about ten minutes trying to figure out what episode Law was referencing, but I came up empty.)
Additionally, it seems to be written more for a person who's picking it up and reading a random chapter from time to time, and not for the person who's trying to read it straight through. I lost count of the number of times we were treated to Sig Mejdal's resume, for example, and some anecdotes are shared multiple times.
Anyway: it's fine! Read it because Law's an engaging writer and because you want to read something about baseball while MLB attempts to set itself on fire.
Also: it's not quite right to describe this book as "poorly edited" or anything, but there were just some... weird technical things along the way. One chapter is entitled "Pete Rose's Lionel Hutz Defense" which is sure going to be confusing to someone who doesn't know the Lionel Hutz character from the Simpsons, because Hutz isn't mentioned at all in the chapter. That's weird, right?? (I'm an early-season Simpsons nerd too - and I wasted about ten minutes trying to figure out what episode Law was referencing, but I came up empty.)
Additionally, it seems to be written more for a person who's picking it up and reading a random chapter from time to time, and not for the person who's trying to read it straight through. I lost count of the number of times we were treated to Sig Mejdal's resume, for example, and some anecdotes are shared multiple times.
Anyway: it's fine! Read it because Law's an engaging writer and because you want to read something about baseball while MLB attempts to set itself on fire.
May 1, 2020
Any book that starts out with “the case for robot umpires” is good by me, because if I have to see Aaron Judge get punched out on a ball at his shins one more time I’m going to lose my mind. But in all seriousness, this book was awesome. It outlined a lot of really interesting baseball stories and decisions to show how they impacted baseball, but also how they relate to the world outside baseball. Specific stories like Joe DiMaggio winning the MVP over Ted Williams or Albert Pujols’ contract with the Angels, or general things like why you should never draft a high school pitcher in the first round were discussed in relation to the biases that caused the decisions. It wasn’t a typical baseball book in that sense, which made it pretty entertaining.
April 21, 2020
Smart, entertaining, surprisingly quick read. Not a baseball book so much as a book that uses baseball like Mary Poppins used a spoonful of sugar. Recommended.
December 12, 2022
Hundreds, if not thousands of decisions are made every day by every person. Of course, some have more consequences and importance than others, but they are still decisions that are made. Many who enjoy baseball say they do so because it can resemble real life very often. This book by Keith Law can actually show the correlation – not because baseball decisions such as the Los Angeles Angles giving a 10 year contract to an aging Albert Pujols reflects what most ordinary people will do, but because of how this type of decision was made.
I used this particular baseball decision in this review for two reasons. One, Law himself refers to this one several times throughout the book and twice for different fallacies that he describes. Most of the book focuses on bad decisions made in baseball and the biases or fallacies that were used to come up with that conclusion. Examples of these discussed in the book is recency bias (familiar to many in situations outside of baseball as well as with the game), outcome bias (using Bob Brenley winning the World Series as the manager of the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks despite making some poor managerial choices) and base rate neglect (why some high school pitchers are still drafted in the first round despite the low percentage of these pitchers who will make the major leagues). Law writes about these and other reasons that poor decisions could be made in baseball and in other areas.
It was these other areas that made the book a little underwhelming for me – I certainly didn’t want to pick this up to read about the falsehood of linking vaccinations with autism, but there was a considerable amount of text given to this topic. But when Law stuck with baseball, even when talking about the fictional “Joey Bagodonuts” to illustrate a point, I did enjoy it and there was enough baseball in the book to make this a decent read.
https://sportsbookguy.blogspot.com/20...
I used this particular baseball decision in this review for two reasons. One, Law himself refers to this one several times throughout the book and twice for different fallacies that he describes. Most of the book focuses on bad decisions made in baseball and the biases or fallacies that were used to come up with that conclusion. Examples of these discussed in the book is recency bias (familiar to many in situations outside of baseball as well as with the game), outcome bias (using Bob Brenley winning the World Series as the manager of the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks despite making some poor managerial choices) and base rate neglect (why some high school pitchers are still drafted in the first round despite the low percentage of these pitchers who will make the major leagues). Law writes about these and other reasons that poor decisions could be made in baseball and in other areas.
It was these other areas that made the book a little underwhelming for me – I certainly didn’t want to pick this up to read about the falsehood of linking vaccinations with autism, but there was a considerable amount of text given to this topic. But when Law stuck with baseball, even when talking about the fictional “Joey Bagodonuts” to illustrate a point, I did enjoy it and there was enough baseball in the book to make this a decent read.
https://sportsbookguy.blogspot.com/20...
February 28, 2024
Fantastic book about bias in statistics, sports and life! Written by a former member of the Jays management team so there are a few great local stories.
February 9, 2024
Law explores decision science and behavioral patterns in the context of professional baseball. It’s not the best-written book out there, but I’m a sucker for a discussion of data analytics in sports and it’s fun to learn more about players, teams, and trades with which I’m already familiar.
August 15, 2020
3.5 stars.
Keith Law read "Thinking Fast and Slow" and decided to apply it to baseball. In the outset, Law notes how Fast and Slow has really caught on in baseball circles recently. Everyone's either reading it or at least being aware of what it's about. Fast & Slow is a study of cognitive biases, what factors cause these biases, and how they affect out decision making.
Thus, this book is looks at cognitive bias in the world of baseball decision-making. It's a promising idea for a book.... but I found it a bit underwhelming. Ultimately, many (most?) of the issues he talks about have already been noted for a long time. We may not have had the terminology or scientific rigor used by Fast and Slow, but a lot of this felt like treading on already well-worn ground. (On at least one occasion, even the terminology used was familiar - a late chapter on the sunk cost fallacy).
The book has its moments. My favorite section dealt with misaligned motives - specifically looking at how the motives of agents and players don't always line up.
I guess I could kick it up to four stars - it really is a toss up in Goodreads's no-half-stars-allowed policy. But I was a bit disappointed, so three stars it is.
Keith Law read "Thinking Fast and Slow" and decided to apply it to baseball. In the outset, Law notes how Fast and Slow has really caught on in baseball circles recently. Everyone's either reading it or at least being aware of what it's about. Fast & Slow is a study of cognitive biases, what factors cause these biases, and how they affect out decision making.
Thus, this book is looks at cognitive bias in the world of baseball decision-making. It's a promising idea for a book.... but I found it a bit underwhelming. Ultimately, many (most?) of the issues he talks about have already been noted for a long time. We may not have had the terminology or scientific rigor used by Fast and Slow, but a lot of this felt like treading on already well-worn ground. (On at least one occasion, even the terminology used was familiar - a late chapter on the sunk cost fallacy).
The book has its moments. My favorite section dealt with misaligned motives - specifically looking at how the motives of agents and players don't always line up.
I guess I could kick it up to four stars - it really is a toss up in Goodreads's no-half-stars-allowed policy. But I was a bit disappointed, so three stars it is.
August 8, 2021
Baseball and Cognitive Psychology. This book was fascinating in how Law links the two. He uses examples of baseball decisions to explain various theories from cognitive psychology. How Grady Little’s failure to remove Pedro Martinez in the 7th game of the 2004 ALCS was an example of status quo bias. How anchoring bias affects umpires ability to make accurate calls. How the illusory truth effect leads managers and players to make the wrong call. How process error can lead managers to make errors when it comes to using your players. These are just a few examples from the book. Law’s book is very readable. All baseball (or sports fans) would enjoy it.
April 10, 2020
Got an early look at this one with a reviewer copy - and I liked it. It's a book that asks you to think about how you think, using baseball examples to explore biases.
You kind of need to brace yourself for it going in - the first chapter was a little harder than the others, because I wasn't sure of what I was fully getting into ... but once you get into it, it's quite interesting and thought-provoking.
Much of what's in here can be applied to things outside of baseball too.
You kind of need to brace yourself for it going in - the first chapter was a little harder than the others, because I wasn't sure of what I was fully getting into ... but once you get into it, it's quite interesting and thought-provoking.
Much of what's in here can be applied to things outside of baseball too.
June 12, 2023
Awesome baseball book that really makes you think about the game through a different lens. Management, roster construction, and psychology all rolled into one really good book.
April 30, 2020
https://www.themaineedge.com/sports/t...
Baseball is a game of decisions, both on the field and off it. And when we talk about Major League Baseball, well – there are A LOT of choices that need to be made. Whether we’re talking about in-game strategy or front office maneuvering, the sport is rife with opportunities to make decisions.
But how do we know if they’re the right ones? How do we know if we’re truly making optimal choices or if we’re being guided (or misguided) by subconscious belief systems and biases of which we may not even be fully aware?
Answers to those questions are among the many things that Keith Law is delving into with his new book “The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves.” It’s an effort to make accessible the behavioral science behind the inherent biases that can impact our decisions, baseball or otherwise.
By walking us through the conscious and unconscious influences that impact how baseball works, Law gives us a new perspective on the intricacies of the sport – a perspective that matches the more data-driven and analytically-inclined model followed by 21st century practitioners of the game.
He hits the ground running, with an opening chapter making the case for robot umpires via the phenomenon of anchoring bias – basically, the notion that the present is influenced by the immediate past. In essence, umpires aren’t just calling the pitch in front of them. Not out of any deliberate choice, mind you, but by an unconscious bias shared by all people.
From there, we’re off, following through various categories of on- and off-field decisions and the behavioral science behind the biases that impact those decisions. Just a few examples:
Outcome bias: Wherein the end result is the only one considered, regardless of the relative quality of the choices that led to that result; a failure to acknowledge that the nature of sport means that luck or chance can overcome a litany of poor calls. Law’s primary example is Diamondbacks manager Bob Brenly basically stumbling into a World Series title despite objectively bad choices.
Base-rate neglect: Ignoring the results indicated by data in favor of personal belief that one’s choice will prove to be an exception to those results. Here, Law spends some time spelling out just how poor a decision it is to draft high school pitchers in the first round, even though there are some major success stories a la Clayton Kershaw.
Recency bias: The idea that using only the most recent data is a useful indicator of future performance. Basically, this chapter debunks the notion of streaks – whether they are hot or cold, the limited data sets drawn from a handful of recent games is not enough to properly discern outcomes going forward.
On and on it goes, with an assortment of defined biases being explored through their connection to the workings of baseball. The sunk cost fallacy, optimism bias and survivorship bias. The dangers of groupthink and moral hazard and principal agency. All of these internalized and inherent tendencies of which we have little or no conscious awareness acting to influence our decision making – largely to the worse.
“The Inside Game” presents an interesting dichotomy, matching Law’s undeniable baseball acumen with his more dilettante understanding of behavioral science; there are a number of ways in which this whole thing could easily have gone off the rails. However, Law maintains a firm hand, never allowing his personal levels of knowledge overly skew the conversation.
Be warned: “The Inside Game” definitely gets pretty wonky in spots. It is far from the traditional baseball book for sure, although if you have any experience with the author’s previous work, that shouldn’t come as any great surprise. He ventures farther afield than he did in his last book “Smart Baseball,” but this new offering is still anchored in Law’s unwavering … Law-ness – and that’s a good thing. His authorial voice is a distinct one, blending intellectualism with snark to present something that is equal parts informational and entertaining, all with just the right amount of edge. He’s throwing heat and painting the corners, to be sure.
While it is far from your typical sports book, “The Inside Game” is definitely indicative of the ideas being utilized by the game’s thought leaders. Forward-thinking organizations are embracing awareness of these biases in an effort to build teams that operate more efficiently both in the dugout and in the front office. What Law does here is find a way to make the behavioral scientific concepts accessible to a broader audience by exploring the connections – direct and indirect – to the baseball realm. Smart and savvy, “The Inside Game” is a gem.
Although who knows? Maybe I’m biased.
Baseball is a game of decisions, both on the field and off it. And when we talk about Major League Baseball, well – there are A LOT of choices that need to be made. Whether we’re talking about in-game strategy or front office maneuvering, the sport is rife with opportunities to make decisions.
But how do we know if they’re the right ones? How do we know if we’re truly making optimal choices or if we’re being guided (or misguided) by subconscious belief systems and biases of which we may not even be fully aware?
Answers to those questions are among the many things that Keith Law is delving into with his new book “The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves.” It’s an effort to make accessible the behavioral science behind the inherent biases that can impact our decisions, baseball or otherwise.
By walking us through the conscious and unconscious influences that impact how baseball works, Law gives us a new perspective on the intricacies of the sport – a perspective that matches the more data-driven and analytically-inclined model followed by 21st century practitioners of the game.
He hits the ground running, with an opening chapter making the case for robot umpires via the phenomenon of anchoring bias – basically, the notion that the present is influenced by the immediate past. In essence, umpires aren’t just calling the pitch in front of them. Not out of any deliberate choice, mind you, but by an unconscious bias shared by all people.
From there, we’re off, following through various categories of on- and off-field decisions and the behavioral science behind the biases that impact those decisions. Just a few examples:
Outcome bias: Wherein the end result is the only one considered, regardless of the relative quality of the choices that led to that result; a failure to acknowledge that the nature of sport means that luck or chance can overcome a litany of poor calls. Law’s primary example is Diamondbacks manager Bob Brenly basically stumbling into a World Series title despite objectively bad choices.
Base-rate neglect: Ignoring the results indicated by data in favor of personal belief that one’s choice will prove to be an exception to those results. Here, Law spends some time spelling out just how poor a decision it is to draft high school pitchers in the first round, even though there are some major success stories a la Clayton Kershaw.
Recency bias: The idea that using only the most recent data is a useful indicator of future performance. Basically, this chapter debunks the notion of streaks – whether they are hot or cold, the limited data sets drawn from a handful of recent games is not enough to properly discern outcomes going forward.
On and on it goes, with an assortment of defined biases being explored through their connection to the workings of baseball. The sunk cost fallacy, optimism bias and survivorship bias. The dangers of groupthink and moral hazard and principal agency. All of these internalized and inherent tendencies of which we have little or no conscious awareness acting to influence our decision making – largely to the worse.
“The Inside Game” presents an interesting dichotomy, matching Law’s undeniable baseball acumen with his more dilettante understanding of behavioral science; there are a number of ways in which this whole thing could easily have gone off the rails. However, Law maintains a firm hand, never allowing his personal levels of knowledge overly skew the conversation.
Be warned: “The Inside Game” definitely gets pretty wonky in spots. It is far from the traditional baseball book for sure, although if you have any experience with the author’s previous work, that shouldn’t come as any great surprise. He ventures farther afield than he did in his last book “Smart Baseball,” but this new offering is still anchored in Law’s unwavering … Law-ness – and that’s a good thing. His authorial voice is a distinct one, blending intellectualism with snark to present something that is equal parts informational and entertaining, all with just the right amount of edge. He’s throwing heat and painting the corners, to be sure.
While it is far from your typical sports book, “The Inside Game” is definitely indicative of the ideas being utilized by the game’s thought leaders. Forward-thinking organizations are embracing awareness of these biases in an effort to build teams that operate more efficiently both in the dugout and in the front office. What Law does here is find a way to make the behavioral scientific concepts accessible to a broader audience by exploring the connections – direct and indirect – to the baseball realm. Smart and savvy, “The Inside Game” is a gem.
Although who knows? Maybe I’m biased.
May 9, 2020
This book is an intriguing sort of popularization, using the vehicle of baseball to bring some ideas from psychology, sociology, business, and economics to a broader audience. We all could be better decision-makers, and this is an effort I appreciate. Moreover, there does seem to be a natural connection between the theoretical material and its application to the field of baseball. Indeed, it’s specifically because front offices in Major League Baseball have in recent years made more concerted efforts to make data-driven and theoretically sound decisions that a book like this might seem to have some currency. Even so, there are times when it seems uncertain of its own purposes, and especially of its audience.
In some places it seems to be speaking mainly to sports fans who might find academic jargon off-putting. For example, in a discussion of umpires calling balls and strikes, the author refers to “a loose form of Bayesian updating,” before reassuring readers that they may “just nod and keep reading” (17). At other times, we’re given explanations of concepts that will be elementary to readers with almost any familiarity with baseball, such as what “scoring position” means (137). One wonders what level of familiarity would be expected of an audience that would nevertheless find a book like this both interesting and edifying.
The baseball history found in The Inside Game is generally of a more recent vintage: the late career contracts of Jim Thome and Albert Pujols, the 2001 World Series and the 2003-4 contraction episode. So it has a fresh feel to it. Yet at times, in discussing the application of theory to particular examples, it does not carry the discussion to as much depth as it might. For example, contract given by the Angels to Gary Matthews Jr. is cited as an example of recency bias, having been based substantially on one good season, rather than a well-established body of work. Later, the extension given by the Blue Jays to Jose Bautista is cited as a positive example of data-driven decision-making, even though that too was based on a recent run of success that was vastly different from Bautista’s established performance. Law spends a couple of paragraphs on what distinguished the Bautista decision, mentioning his having changed his swing and approach, and the use of exit velocity data to confirm that there had been a real change. Even so, the two examples are similar enough that a more sustained discussion and a more direct comparison might have been in order. Did the Angels not have any good reasons to think Matthews’s performance was sustainable? Did the Jays not have any reason to doubt that Bautista’s was?
Still, on balance, the book is worth the while of baseball fans. The way that front offices make decisions is an increasingly important part of the game. More and more, we know the names of executives like we know the names of players. Books like this offer the tools to have more thoughtful and productive discussions about how decisions are made.
In some places it seems to be speaking mainly to sports fans who might find academic jargon off-putting. For example, in a discussion of umpires calling balls and strikes, the author refers to “a loose form of Bayesian updating,” before reassuring readers that they may “just nod and keep reading” (17). At other times, we’re given explanations of concepts that will be elementary to readers with almost any familiarity with baseball, such as what “scoring position” means (137). One wonders what level of familiarity would be expected of an audience that would nevertheless find a book like this both interesting and edifying.
The baseball history found in The Inside Game is generally of a more recent vintage: the late career contracts of Jim Thome and Albert Pujols, the 2001 World Series and the 2003-4 contraction episode. So it has a fresh feel to it. Yet at times, in discussing the application of theory to particular examples, it does not carry the discussion to as much depth as it might. For example, contract given by the Angels to Gary Matthews Jr. is cited as an example of recency bias, having been based substantially on one good season, rather than a well-established body of work. Later, the extension given by the Blue Jays to Jose Bautista is cited as a positive example of data-driven decision-making, even though that too was based on a recent run of success that was vastly different from Bautista’s established performance. Law spends a couple of paragraphs on what distinguished the Bautista decision, mentioning his having changed his swing and approach, and the use of exit velocity data to confirm that there had been a real change. Even so, the two examples are similar enough that a more sustained discussion and a more direct comparison might have been in order. Did the Angels not have any good reasons to think Matthews’s performance was sustainable? Did the Jays not have any reason to doubt that Bautista’s was?
Still, on balance, the book is worth the while of baseball fans. The way that front offices make decisions is an increasingly important part of the game. More and more, we know the names of executives like we know the names of players. Books like this offer the tools to have more thoughtful and productive discussions about how decisions are made.
August 23, 2020
In recent years, I've noticed a rash of books on the topic of evolutionary thinking on current-day events. In essence, these tomes examine the current life situation through the lens of thousands of years of our brains evolutions, producing some fascinating insights. In "The Inside Game", Keith Law does basically the same thing--only applying it to the sport of baseball instead of general life.
Baseball proves to be a great landing spot for such material, as it is already a sport engaged in a tug-of-war between "old school" philosophies and "new school" saber-metrics. Usually, such debates are restricted to the history (long as it is) of the sport itself. "Within the white lines", as the saying goes. But to expand such a discussion to that of evolutionary brain thinking really provides some fascinating new angles.
Some of the topics I found most intriguing here were: umpire strike-calling tendencies, outcome biases, the sunk-cost fallacy in dealing with player signings, using recent information to predict the future, and the inclination towards the status quo in the human mind/condition. It was very interesting to filter those common (at least in psychology/sociological environments) discussion points through a baseball lens.
Overall, "The Inside Game" is a unique look at the sport. About the only reason I docked it a star is because the writing can be a bit dry. Other than that, though, fans of the sport (or simply those interested in "thinking topics") will have a lot to dig into here.
Baseball proves to be a great landing spot for such material, as it is already a sport engaged in a tug-of-war between "old school" philosophies and "new school" saber-metrics. Usually, such debates are restricted to the history (long as it is) of the sport itself. "Within the white lines", as the saying goes. But to expand such a discussion to that of evolutionary brain thinking really provides some fascinating new angles.
Some of the topics I found most intriguing here were: umpire strike-calling tendencies, outcome biases, the sunk-cost fallacy in dealing with player signings, using recent information to predict the future, and the inclination towards the status quo in the human mind/condition. It was very interesting to filter those common (at least in psychology/sociological environments) discussion points through a baseball lens.
Overall, "The Inside Game" is a unique look at the sport. About the only reason I docked it a star is because the writing can be a bit dry. Other than that, though, fans of the sport (or simply those interested in "thinking topics") will have a lot to dig into here.
January 15, 2022
🔘喜歡看棒球的人應該會喜歡這本
🔘不喜歡棒球的人…可以學到很多棒球知識 😆
本書用大量美國職棒的案例來說明幾種「認知偏誤」，例如：
🔘錨定效應
🔘可得性偏誤
🔘結果謬誤
🔘近時偏誤
其中，讓我發想最多的是「真相錯覺效應」：
《一個陳述被重複多次之後，人們對它的信任度會提升，也比較願意相信它是真實的，同溫層則會助長此狀況。
而觀念一旦根深蒂固，即便提供最新研究或正確資訊，都很難被改變，甚至經常造成反效果。》
🔘三人成虎 😳
🔘原來要洗腦這麼簡單 😅
例如，我本來是真心認為有“強心臟打者"這回事的，但歷史統計數據證明了沒這回事，常打出關鍵一擊的打者本來就強，打擊率本就比別人高，而且人們會較容易記住關鍵一擊時的場景，於是“強心臟打者"這件事，就經常被整個棒球界的同溫層(教練球員轉播員和球迷)傳誦，久之就成為煞有其事的事實了。
🔘我就真的覺得陳金鋒強心臟阿!
🔘然後就把這觀念傳給我兒子了 😙
🔘看他會不會再傳下去 😅
🔘籃球界其實也有這傳說
仔細想想，這個效應其實有其正面意義! 大家都認為是對的事就相信它，在絕大部份的情況中其實是有利的；各種社會常識才會被擴散於群體中，不但能持續推動文明進步，還能促進內部合作並提高團體的演化優勢。
🔘人類因相互學習而偉大
🔘那同溫層有其他正面意義嗎? 除了可以相互取暖之外… ☺️
個人認為同溫層效應其實是人類能「合作」的重要基礎。同溫層表示一群人有相似的觀念和目標，因此內聚力較高，合作的基礎也較為穩固。而人類會「合作」的天性，也是歷經演化後留下的結果。例如兩群部落發生衝突時，在其他條件一樣的狀況下，較具合作性格的一方獲勝的機率當然較大。
🔘同溫層帶來高內聚力
🔘高內聚力促進群體的內部合作
🔘具合作天性的族群有演化優勢
🔘但是…太合作的群體也有壞處
哈佛教授格林在《道德部落》中提到，內聚力愈強的群體，排他性也會愈強。但是這種在部落衝突時代的演化優勢，放在今天反可能成為一種進步的阻礙。
在這共存共榮的世界村時代，能與他群(即便是非同溫層)合作，常比排斥甚至與其對抗帶來更多的優勢，也就是排他性愈高的群體，將愈難享受到全球共同合作的益處。
例如許多跨國公司會將「多元及包容」視為公司文化重要的一環並持續教育員工。而排他性愈強的國家或個人，常成為戰事發生的源頭，或成為敝帚自珍的孤島。
🔘多元與包容成為普世價值
🔘Diversity and Inclusion (D&I)
然而，今天的社群網站卻會加深這種同溫層現象。例如FB或IG的演算法會推播及建議迎合你的文章或社團，我們因此漸深陷於某同溫層中而不自知，在互相取暖之餘提升了內聚力，卻也可能加大了排他性。尤其在政治或疫苗防治等社會議題上，這些本為區隔廣告投放而設計的演算法，無意中形塑了內聚力強大的虛擬部落，卻也成為了加深社會分裂的重要因素。
🔘網路世界何其大
🔘但人心只看到她想看到的
🔘同時有演算法在背後操弄
🔘呃我會不會扯太遠了? 😅
回到「真相錯覺效應」好了。這項認知偏誤提醒了我們，在吸收眾人知識的基礎之上，也要有懷疑論者的反思態度，尤其是你已深信不移的意識型態。因為錯誤的棒球觀念沒啥大關係，但若牽涉到企業甚或國家可能就大條了。
網際網路廣納百川，人心視界卻是狹隘窄小。享受溫暖的同溫層之餘也應拓展自己的心靈，面對人性的共通盲點，包容多元，對自己及社會都會有益的!
🔘最後一段莫名變心靈雞湯了… 🤣
延伸閱讀：
《快思慢想》
《誰說人是理性的》
《道德部落》
《好人總是自以為是》
🔘不喜歡棒球的人…可以學到很多棒球知識 😆
本書用大量美國職棒的案例來說明幾種「認知偏誤」，例如：
🔘錨定效應
🔘可得性偏誤
🔘結果謬誤
🔘近時偏誤
其中，讓我發想最多的是「真相錯覺效應」：
《一個陳述被重複多次之後，人們對它的信任度會提升，也比較願意相信它是真實的，同溫層則會助長此狀況。
而觀念一旦根深蒂固，即便提供最新研究或正確資訊，都很難被改變，甚至經常造成反效果。》
🔘三人成虎 😳
🔘原來要洗腦這麼簡單 😅
例如，我本來是真心認為有“強心臟打者"這回事的，但歷史統計數據證明了沒這回事，常打出關鍵一擊的打者本來就強，打擊率本就比別人高，而且人們會較容易記住關鍵一擊時的場景，於是“強心臟打者"這件事，就經常被整個棒球界的同溫層(教練球員轉播員和球迷)傳誦，久之就成為煞有其事的事實了。
🔘我就真的覺得陳金鋒強心臟阿!
🔘然後就把這觀念傳給我兒子了 😙
🔘看他會不會再傳下去 😅
🔘籃球界其實也有這傳說
仔細想想，這個效應其實有其正面意義! 大家都認為是對的事就相信它，在絕大部份的情況中其實是有利的；各種社會常識才會被擴散於群體中，不但能持續推動文明進步，還能促進內部合作並提高團體的演化優勢。
🔘人類因相互學習而偉大
🔘那同溫層有其他正面意義嗎? 除了可以相互取暖之外… ☺️
個人認為同溫層效應其實是人類能「合作」的重要基礎。同溫層表示一群人有相似的觀念和目標，因此內聚力較高，合作的基礎也較為穩固。而人類會「合作」的天性，也是歷經演化後留下的結果。例如兩群部落發生衝突時，在其他條件一樣的狀況下，較具合作性格的一方獲勝的機率當然較大。
🔘同溫層帶來高內聚力
🔘高內聚力促進群體的內部合作
🔘具合作天性的族群有演化優勢
🔘但是…太合作的群體也有壞處
哈佛教授格林在《道德部落》中提到，內聚力愈強的群體，排他性也會愈強。但是這種在部落衝突時代的演化優勢，放在今天反可能成為一種進步的阻礙。
在這共存共榮的世界村時代，能與他群(即便是非同溫層)合作，常比排斥甚至與其對抗帶來更多的優勢，也就是排他性愈高的群體，將愈難享受到全球共同合作的益處。
例如許多跨國公司會將「多元及包容」視為公司文化重要的一環並持續教育員工。而排他性愈強的國家或個人，常成為戰事發生的源頭，或成為敝帚自珍的孤島。
🔘多元與包容成為普世價值
🔘Diversity and Inclusion (D&I)
然而，今天的社群網站卻會加深這種同溫層現象。例如FB或IG的演算法會推播及建議迎合你的文章或社團，我們因此漸深陷於某同溫層中而不自知，在互相取暖之餘提升了內聚力，卻也可能加大了排他性。尤其在政治或疫苗防治等社會議題上，這些本為區隔廣告投放而設計的演算法，無意中形塑了內聚力強大的虛擬部落，卻也成為了加深社會分裂的重要因素。
🔘網路世界何其大
🔘但人心只看到她想看到的
🔘同時有演算法在背後操弄
🔘呃我會不會扯太遠了? 😅
回到「真相錯覺效應」好了。這項認知偏誤提醒了我們，在吸收眾人知識的基礎之上，也要有懷疑論者的反思態度，尤其是你已深信不移的意識型態。因為錯誤的棒球觀念沒啥大關係，但若牽涉到企業甚或國家可能就大條了。
網際網路廣納百川，人心視界卻是狹隘窄小。享受溫暖的同溫層之餘也應拓展自己的心靈，面對人性的共通盲點，包容多元，對自己及社會都會有益的!
🔘最後一段莫名變心靈雞湯了… 🤣
延伸閱讀：
《快思慢想》
《誰說人是理性的》
《道德部落》
《好人總是自以為是》
June 18, 2021
breezy read in which each chapter is a Tversky/Kahneman-esque cognitive pitfall (availability bias, etc. etc.) and elaborates an example from baseball to illustrate. Dumb long-term contract signings (Pujols), unfortunate trades or refusals to make a trade, overuse of pitchers, and so on.
Nothing wrong with it, just kind of meh. I'd like to see him respond to something like Gerd Gigerenzer's critique of Tversky and Kahneman's "heuristics and biases" conceptualizations as more about naming phenomena than explaining them. For example, the "endowment effect" (overvaluing what one already owns) is illustrated by a team's refusal to make a particular trade, putatively because they thought too highly of their own players who were being requested by the other team.
ok, that adds up, but I'd like to see him push that a bit. Lots of trades get made, after all -- why aren't those teams overvaluing their players? why wasn't the team that was making the declined offer overvaluing its players? what are the parameters here? Just something more compelling than "here's an example that shows this effect exists in baseball"
Nothing wrong with it, just kind of meh. I'd like to see him respond to something like Gerd Gigerenzer's critique of Tversky and Kahneman's "heuristics and biases" conceptualizations as more about naming phenomena than explaining them. For example, the "endowment effect" (overvaluing what one already owns) is illustrated by a team's refusal to make a particular trade, putatively because they thought too highly of their own players who were being requested by the other team.
ok, that adds up, but I'd like to see him push that a bit. Lots of trades get made, after all -- why aren't those teams overvaluing their players? why wasn't the team that was making the declined offer overvaluing its players? what are the parameters here? Just something more compelling than "here's an example that shows this effect exists in baseball"
October 2, 2020
If you really (and I mean really...) like baseball, to the extent you're willing to wade through somewhat academically oriented narratives on several broad subjects, Keith Law's "The Inside Game" may be right up your alley. I know it's increased my understanding of the game and what surrounds it.
The Inside Game is basically about decision-making. It looks at several important aspects of the game of baseball, such as drafting, in-game decisions, trades, and salary negotiations, and examines how different biases affect them. There's not a lot of jargon, but there's enough for readers to recognize that the author knows what he's talking about, has done his research, and loves the game. The chapters are arranged as almost stand-alones, so one can pick and choose by area of interest, which is how I read it.
Law's an interesting guy with a great background: Ivy League education, former scouting executive with a major league team, very diverse interests. All that combines to produce a book that explains a lot about the sport. It's not for everyone, but it may be right for you.
The Inside Game is basically about decision-making. It looks at several important aspects of the game of baseball, such as drafting, in-game decisions, trades, and salary negotiations, and examines how different biases affect them. There's not a lot of jargon, but there's enough for readers to recognize that the author knows what he's talking about, has done his research, and loves the game. The chapters are arranged as almost stand-alones, so one can pick and choose by area of interest, which is how I read it.
Law's an interesting guy with a great background: Ivy League education, former scouting executive with a major league team, very diverse interests. All that combines to produce a book that explains a lot about the sport. It's not for everyone, but it may be right for you.
March 17, 2023
Keith Law has written an informative and enjoyable book about baseball and decision making, but he can come off as pretty insufferable at times. Working off of Daniel Kahneman’s iconic work of behavioral science, "Thinking Fast and Slow" he shows how baseball decisions reveal what economists and psychologists have discovered about why and how we go about making bad decisions. Baseball is filled with bad decisions. There are examples from managers and GMs that show outcome bias, recency bias, baserate neglect optimistic thinking, sunk cost fallacy and other bad-decision making patterns. While Law says over and over again that these mistakes are common and more than that, human, he cannot help being a sports reporter. That means he can be caustic and biting, belittling those who seem to repeatedly do what they should not do. To me it felt even more jarring in a book about thinking analytically and not emotionally. Still, you will learn a lot from this book and it is better than reading economic theory.
July 7, 2021
Wanted to like this one, really did. But while there are intermittently useful bits wouldn't recommend it.
Author veers between baseball topics and 'other', with no clear outline as to why or when. His citation of each type of cognitive bias feels a bit too much like we're going for the big words rather than telling a full story. Examples are repetitive, with the same things mentioned in successive chapters - with no clear reason for repeating them.
Frankly there were so many references to Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" the clearest purpose of this book feels like a review of that one.
One stylistic nitpick - I'm less interested in the author's background than I am his story. I don't need to hear again and again that he worked for the Blue Jays and ESPN, nor do care that he personally knows a bunch of baseball GMs - feels extraneous.
Overall - felt like we could have edited it down quite a bit and had a really good, tight story to tell. It's interesting stuff, but the way the author tells to story gets in the way.
Author veers between baseball topics and 'other', with no clear outline as to why or when. His citation of each type of cognitive bias feels a bit too much like we're going for the big words rather than telling a full story. Examples are repetitive, with the same things mentioned in successive chapters - with no clear reason for repeating them.
Frankly there were so many references to Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" the clearest purpose of this book feels like a review of that one.
One stylistic nitpick - I'm less interested in the author's background than I am his story. I don't need to hear again and again that he worked for the Blue Jays and ESPN, nor do care that he personally knows a bunch of baseball GMs - feels extraneous.
Overall - felt like we could have edited it down quite a bit and had a really good, tight story to tell. It's interesting stuff, but the way the author tells to story gets in the way.
October 26, 2021
Law uses a variety of anecdotes from his time working in and covering Major League Baseball to illustrate a series of cognitive and psychological processes in an effort to analyze and understand human decision-making.
The illustrations chosen by Law are all familiar enough to the casual baseball reader to be considered viable and believable but not so familiar that they do not offer something new or insightful. Law has balanced this well.
The reason for the 4 stars is a matter of taste. Law is a bit snarky and at times sarcastic. It can be a bit fatiguing after a while. Some people love it. I grew a bit tired of it.
There is a balance to be struck between understanding baseball and analyzing something to death. Law offers something to chew on without killing the spirit and soul.
The illustrations chosen by Law are all familiar enough to the casual baseball reader to be considered viable and believable but not so familiar that they do not offer something new or insightful. Law has balanced this well.
The reason for the 4 stars is a matter of taste. Law is a bit snarky and at times sarcastic. It can be a bit fatiguing after a while. Some people love it. I grew a bit tired of it.
There is a balance to be struck between understanding baseball and analyzing something to death. Law offers something to chew on without killing the spirit and soul.
April 22, 2020
Really interesting book about how economic theory and behavioral psychology principles affect our decisions, such as why we tend to gravitate toward maintaining the status quo, why we continue to hold onto beliefs that have been proven false, our bias toward the most recent thing that we have heard and optimism, etc., etc. .......with extensive examples from the world of baseball, with its constant decision-making (who to play?, what line up? who to trade? how much to pay? and, so on) and wealth of statistics available on players, teams, and managers. A fascinating read and especially enjoyable if you are a baseball fan.
Thank you Goodreads and Harper Collins for providing an advanced copy of this book.
Thank you Goodreads and Harper Collins for providing an advanced copy of this book.
May 3, 2020
Decision-making in the modern game of baseball is controlled by statistics and data. Wait. Decision-making in the modern game of baseball is controlled by humans who ignore hard evidence in favor of age-old cognitive and emotional bias and wishful thinking. Hmmm.
The author has filled this book with tons of baseball statistics but linked them with psychological concepts and cognitive studies. Clever writing and interesting examples show that non-baseball decision-making is no different. We're all affected by bias and often facts don't necessarily matter when it comes right down to it.
Hard-core baseball fans will love the quantity of stats but light-weight fans like me will find plenty to like about this book. And reading it just might help us all be better decision-makers.
The author has filled this book with tons of baseball statistics but linked them with psychological concepts and cognitive studies. Clever writing and interesting examples show that non-baseball decision-making is no different. We're all affected by bias and often facts don't necessarily matter when it comes right down to it.
Hard-core baseball fans will love the quantity of stats but light-weight fans like me will find plenty to like about this book. And reading it just might help us all be better decision-makers.
April 17, 2021
An excellent look at logical fallacies through the lens of baseball. Law’s professional career, back and forth between reporting and the front office, has spanned the rise of analytics to their presently dominant position in the sport, so he has had a front row seat to a lot of these changes and the heroes and villains of smart decisions. It’s a relatively slender volume, and despite Law’s acknowledgement that poor processes can produce good results and vice versa I still think he is prone to the post hoc fallacy at least to an extent (the Pedro non-trade was reasonably defensible). And behavioral economics is itself still prone to chicanery, as Taleb often argues (and Law would likely allow). But for a novice in behavioral economics or baseball thinking it’s a useful volume.
November 24, 2021
Keith Law is a baseball progressive, so this book focuses on questioning traditional analysis in baseball. He mixes in advice from recent pop science books by Kahneman and Ellenberg. He occasionally goes on tangents about COVID and vaccines which while I don’t disagree with his perspectives on the topics is neither here nor there. Keith Law does like to troll a lot of GMs noting a laundry list of complaints. I would have liked for him to note more about the GMs he thinks are doing a good job and what they’ve done specifically to get success on the field. I’m reading this at the same time as Future Value by Longenhagen and McDaniel and find it to be much more enlightening than this. Overall, it’s a pretty quick and easy read though I didn’t feel like I learned a lot. 3.5-4*
August 20, 2022
This may be a 3-4 star book for people who follow American Baseball, but I didn't enjoy it much just because I don't.
The author does present a disclaimer about this and despite that I read the book thinking, 'how much baseball could be in a book that's main subject is behavioral economics?' (based on my experiences with other sports related books); the answer: a lot.
Hence, while the lessons of the book would warrant a higher rating and perhaps a 'should read' recommendation, I would suggest a pass for anyone who doesn't religiously follow American Baseball and doesn't know the names of the hundreds of players and team managers and a mental replay of a few dozen games like the author (a sports journalist) recalls in the book.
The author does present a disclaimer about this and despite that I read the book thinking, 'how much baseball could be in a book that's main subject is behavioral economics?' (based on my experiences with other sports related books); the answer: a lot.
Hence, while the lessons of the book would warrant a higher rating and perhaps a 'should read' recommendation, I would suggest a pass for anyone who doesn't religiously follow American Baseball and doesn't know the names of the hundreds of players and team managers and a mental replay of a few dozen games like the author (a sports journalist) recalls in the book.
April 30, 2020
This is not a baseball book. This is a book that discusses cognitive biases that uses the stories and statistics of baseball as a delivery mechanism. First, I was hoping for more anecdotal stories about the game of baseball, however, this was not that book. Knowing the previous book and articles from the author, I should have known math would be involved. That was my fault, but I'm still knocking it down a star.
Working in the data industry, this book was very helpful in a refresher on the different biases that creep up in our daily life decisions and is a constant reminder to check our egos and our data. However, this is another book that is preachy about politics and forces the author's opinion on the reader. And the author has every right to do so, it his after all his book. But should not have been done while discussing confirmation bias and the backfire effect. I wanted a book on baseball, not another holier than thou lecture.
Working in the data industry, this book was very helpful in a refresher on the different biases that creep up in our daily life decisions and is a constant reminder to check our egos and our data. However, this is another book that is preachy about politics and forces the author's opinion on the reader. And the author has every right to do so, it his after all his book. But should not have been done while discussing confirmation bias and the backfire effect. I wanted a book on baseball, not another holier than thou lecture.
June 7, 2020
This is a unique and interesting book. In most basic terms, it uses baseball to explain various cognitive biases and concepts in behavioral economics that appear in our lives. Of course, these impact the world in ways far beyond the baseball diamond, so you’ll come away from this book with much more than just deeper insight into the game. I read this book because I enjoyed Law’s Smart Baseball, his previous book, and this one is admittedly a great deal lighter - a quick read, not too deep into anything as to lose your interest, but perhaps a little too shallow at some parts. Overall, nothing like any other baseball book you’ve probably read, so worth picking up.
June 12, 2020
Baseball meets behavioral science! Loving both these topics, I naturally enjoyed this book (wish I’d written it). Each chapter highlights how a particular hidden bias routinely leads to dumb baseball decisions. For example, "moral hazard” is where I make risky choices because much of the burden is shared with someone else. In baseball, this explains why GMs sign veterans to long-term contracts because they need to win NOW - they know they’re likely to be long gone in the later years when the player is past their prime and still making top dollar. (Albert Pujols contract with the Angels is the most egregious example here.) Fun, snappy read for any deep-thinker type baseball fan.
June 27, 2020
I dabbled in Psychology in school. I majored in baseball knowledge forever. This combines the two in a fun way. I like behind the scenes stories and how Keith cobbles together human psychology with it.
Finding a balance between the raw numbers, the advance statistics, your gut and instincts is a tough challenge in and off the field. I’m in sales now and trying to convince the federal government to eschew the status quo and their comfy job security for a better, newer and cheaper option is eerily similar to money ball and how players were evaluated and paid. This is what Keith tries to get across.
Finding a balance between the raw numbers, the advance statistics, your gut and instincts is a tough challenge in and off the field. I’m in sales now and trying to convince the federal government to eschew the status quo and their comfy job security for a better, newer and cheaper option is eerily similar to money ball and how players were evaluated and paid. This is what Keith tries to get across.
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