I've been watching Peter Zeihan's videos on his "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel on YouTube. They are fascinating, and led me to this epic book. The coI've been watching Peter Zeihan's videos on his "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel on YouTube. They are fascinating, and led me to this epic book. The core concept of the book is the "Order". Since World War II, at the Bretton Woods and other agreements, America helps to protect the world's shipping lanes from piracy and attack. All nations are free to trade with one another. This is known as "Globablization". America sacrifices its workers, markets and companies, in return for security control. In the "Order", America disadvantages itself economically in order to purchase the loyalty of a global alliance.
However, national and international events are unhinging the concept of Globalization. Both sides of the political spectrum are disillusioned with Globabilization. Zeihan speculates that with American withdrawal, the structural, strategic, and economic factors that have artificially propped up the entire Asian and European systems are ending. Consumption remains in North America, which sports a demographic profile that doesn't have to immediately adapt to a new financial reality. Massive manufacturing reshoring to the American continents is already in progress.
Zeihan goes out on a limb when he speculates that Globalization is dying. But IF he is correct, then Zeihan's analysis of the consequences is a comprehensive prediction of what will happen in the world. He shows how the stoppage of free trade will limit resources, materials, labor and financing from jumping around from country to country. Every country has its own specialties where it is most economically productive.
Zeihan analyzes many of these consequences of the breakdown of the "Order". Some countries -- most notably China and Russia -- have demographics that have reversed the optimal pyramid shape. Few young people are available to support the growing populations of older people. Only a handful of countries produce their own fertilizer and potash, other countries may not continue farming viable crops for feeding the populace. Only a few countries have access to the special materials used in solid state components, chips, computers and smartphones. When access to these materials becomes stifled, substitutes might be needed, or prices will skyrocket. Climate change is going to change temperatures (up and down), and make dry regions drier. Wheat is one of the most calorie-dense foods that can be farmed on a massive scale. But right now, wheat is grown in regions that are unsuitable for other crops, and when those regions dry up, wheat crops will diminish.
North America--and that means Canada, the United States and Mexico--are in a unique position. Fertile soil, extensive navigation networks, favorable demographics, and oceans that form a protective barrier, all will help to mitigate the effects of the end of globalization. But Europe, Asia and Africa will all have more dire consequences.
Whether or not you believe all of this speculation, you will find this book to be spectacularly engaging. Zeihan has the ability to sift out the irrelevant, and focus on the connections that may portend the future. I highly recommend this book. Even if you aren't convinced by all the speculation, it's a very thoughtful ride through an uncertain future....more
I have read all of Steven Pinker's books, and enjoyed this one as well. Before reading this one, though, I thought that it might be somewhat boring. AI have read all of Steven Pinker's books, and enjoyed this one as well. Before reading this one, though, I thought that it might be somewhat boring. After all, how interesting could this subject be?
Boy, was I wrong! Pinker has written a truly engaging book. Every page is fascinating. In addition, this is the most humorous book that Pinker has written. For example, this quote from comedian George Carlin:
“Tell people there’s an invisible man in the sky who created the universe, and the vast majority will believe you. Tell them the paint is wet, and they have to touch it to be sure.”
Or, this quote from the book:
“Mao Zedong forced Chinese farmers to crowd their seedlings together to enhance their socialist solidarity, and a recent American leader suggested that Covid-19could be treated with injections of bleach.”
Naturally, there is a lot of discussion about the difference between correlation and causation, summed up nicely in this little cartoon by XKCD: [image]
I particularly found the last chapters to be interesting. Why do so many people have such bizarre beliefs? Pinker's answer is that there is believing and "believing". People can hold "beliefs" that they don't hold as factually true. If people really held their fantastical theories to be true, they would behave quite differently, and more seriously.
This is a fantastic book that puts together in one place, all the ways in which people's rationality goes awry. There is a big emphasis on Bayesian reasoning--and rightly so. Most people don't know what Bayes' theorem is, but when they think things out rationally, they apply it. If you don't apply it--even implicitly and unconsciously--your thinking may likely become irrational....more
David Attenborough is a natural historian and a broadcaster. He produced a large number of films about life on earth, ecology, and natural history. HiDavid Attenborough is a natural historian and a broadcaster. He produced a large number of films about life on earth, ecology, and natural history. His book "A Life on our Planet" is a summary of what he has seen around the world. It is not a biography or even a memoir. The book summarizes the various ecological problems faced by the human population.
The first half of the book is--depressing. It lists the numerous problems, and tries to quantify the seriousness of each. A group of Earth System scientists developed a model of planetary boundaries. They classified the ecological problems into nine categories: 1) Climate change* 2) Ocean acidification 3) Chemical pollution 4) Fertilizer use* 5) Freshwater withdrawals 6) Land conversion* 7) Biodiversity loss* 8) Air pollution 9) Ozone layer depletion
The four categories marked by an asterisk are the most serious; they are currently beyond the boundary of a "safe operating space". Attenborough goes into some detail about the most pressing of these environmental problems. Reading the first two parts of the book, I got very depressed. It is a pessimistic outlook, showing how serious these problems are, and how difficult they will be to overcome.
The third part of the book is more optimistic. It describes the efforts currently underway to mitigate the ecological problems. These include reduction of the carbon footprint, changes toward renewable energy, re-wilding of farms, developed lands and the oceans, and putting human population growth into a sustainable trajectory.
The book begins and ends with a description of Pripyat in the Ukraine. This model city was evacuated after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. The city is now abandoned, and is being "re-wilded". Buildings sag under the weight of new vegetation, as the city has become the home to foxes, elk, deer, wild boar, bison, brown bear and racoon dogs. This is a depressing vision of what the world could become, were humans to become extinct due to our self-induced environmental catastrophes. [image]
This book is short, and is an easy read. I highly recommend it to everyone who lives on Earth....more
What a fascinating book! As of 2009, after the United States, Israel, with a population of only 9 million, has more companies listed on the NASDAQ thaWhat a fascinating book! As of 2009, after the United States, Israel, with a population of only 9 million, has more companies listed on the NASDAQ than any other country in the world. The per-capita venture capital investments in Israel were 2.5 times greater than in the United States, more than 30 times greater than in Europe. Startup companies proliferate in Israel like nowhere else. This is all despite the wars and terrorism that Israel has experienced. The question is, why in Israel?
There are a number of reasons. Israel is a nation of immigrants. One third of its population is foreign-born. And, immigrants are not averse to starting over, as they are by definition risk-takers. Unlike the United States, whose Citizenship and Immigration Service is designed to keep immigrants out, Israel's Immigration and Absoption Ministry is focused on bringing them in.
Another key contributor to innovation is the army. Everybody (with the exception of ultra-Orthodox Jews and Israeli Arabs) serves in the army for a few years. The army is remarkably egalitarian and meritocratic. Responsibility, independent thinking, and innovation are strongly encouraged in the army. The culture of the Israeli army is very different from that in other countries. At the end of the day, everybody participates in a sort of a brainstorming session, where all decisions and actions are discussed, analyzed, and critiqued. The team is held in higher regard than individual achievements.
Innovation and entrepreneurship is also strong because of the tight proximity of great universities, large companies, startups and an ecosystem that connects them. They are in tight proximity--not explicitly stated in the book--because the country is so small! In area, it is the size of New Jersey. The military pumps R&D funds into cutting-edge systems and elite technology units; there is a big spillover into the civilian economy.
Other small countries (Denmark, Finland, Ireland, and Sweden for example) also have an advanced technology and infrastructure, and produce lots of patents and fast economic growth and a high standard of living. But Israel has many more start-ups and more venture capital investments. Israel has a culture of aggressiveness and team orientation, being small yet aiming big.
The book is filled with plenty of fascinating anecdotes. The book describes the history of the government's investments in startups, such as investment in an aeronautical industry when the country couldn't even build a bicycle!
Culture is an essential part of the answer to the problem of innovation. Young companies everywhere, that are developing a new company culture, would be well advised to take a look at this story....more
Enrico Moretti has studied why jobs accumulate in certain cities and regions, while other regions remain stagnant or worse. He shows how important a hEnrico Moretti has studied why jobs accumulate in certain cities and regions, while other regions remain stagnant or worse. He shows how important a hub of innovation can be. But while that hub is aided by the presence of a prominent university, it is not sufficient. Other factors tie in, such as the presence of a few prominent innovators--individuals who draw more and more top innovators into the region. People like to "be where the action is".
The whole issue of the geography of jobs, is that there is a vicious cycle at work. A hub of innovation and technology attracts more innovators, while other areas lose them. There are some things that can be done to reverse this trend--and many municipalities try by introducing tax incentives to lure high-tech companies.
The author is informative, and he as done a massive accumulation of statistics and research to back up his findings. There isn't much technical jargon here, and the casual style is quite approachable by the average reader. Actually, I listened to the audiobook, narrated very nicely by Sean Pratt....more
Not a memorable book. It seems like a self-promotional book for the author's investment fund. I was looking for a good explanation of blockchain technNot a memorable book. It seems like a self-promotional book for the author's investment fund. I was looking for a good explanation of blockchain technology. It's not here....more
Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He is a co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a long-term forecasting study. It is Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He is a co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a long-term forecasting study. It is a fascinating project whose purpose is to improve the accuracy of forecasts. You can learn more about the project on theGood Judgment website. In this book you can learn the basics of how to make accurate forecasts in the face of uncertainty and incomplete facts.
An amazing tournament was held, which pitted amateur volunteers in the Good Judgment Project with the best analysts at IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency). The amateurs with the best records for accuracy are termed "superforecasters". They performed 30% better than the professional analysts, who had access to classified information. This was not a simple tournament. It was held over a long period of time, enough time to allow a good amount of research and thinking and discussions among team members. It involved hundreds of questions. These questions were asked in a precise, quantitative way, with definite time frames. And besides giving predictions, players in the tournament estimated their confidence levels in each of their predictions. Their forecasts, along with their estimated confidence levels went into the final scores.
So, what are the qualities of a good superforecaster? Perhaps the dominant trait is active open-mindedness. They do not hold onto beliefs when evidence is brought against them. They all have an intellectual humility; they realize that reality is very complex. Superforecasters are almost all highly numerate people. They do not use sophisticated mathematical models, but they understand probability and confidence levels. Superforecasters intuitively apply Bayes theorem, without explicitly using the formula quantitatively. They care about their reputations, but their self esteem stakes are less than those of career CIA analysts and reputable pundits. So, when new evidence develops, they are more likely to update their forecasts. Superforecasters update their forecasts often, in small increments of probability.
The book discusses the movie, Zero Dark Thirty, about the military assault on the compound in Pakistan, where Osama bin Laden was hiding. The character playing Leon Panetta railed against all the different opinions of the intelligence analysts. But the real Leon Panetta understood the differences in opinions, and welcomed them. He understood that analysts do not all think alike, they have diverse perspectives, and this helps to make the "wisdom of the crowd" more accurate overall. It was found that teams score 23% better than individuals.
The book dispells the myth that during World War II, German soldiers unquestioningly followed orders, while Americans took the initiative and improvised. The truth, especially in the early phases of the war, was often exactly the opposite. The Germans followed a philosophy that military orders should tell leaders what to do, but not how to do it. American leaders were given very detailed orders that removed initiative, creativity, and improvisation. The author deliberately chose this example to make us squirm. One should always keep in mind, that even an evil, vicious, immoral enemy can be competent. Never underestimate your adversary. This is difficult in practice; even superforecasters can conflate facts and values.
Nowadays, the military has radically changed. The military encourages initiative and improvisation. However, corporations are much more focused on command and control. Their hierarchical structure tends to micro-manage. In fact, some corporations have hired ex-military officers to advise company executives to worry less about status, and instead to empower their employees.
An appendix at the end of the book is a list of the Ten Commandments for superforecasting. These are useful generalities for successful forecasting. But even here, the authors are intellectually humble; their last commandment is not always to treat all the commandments as commandments!
This is a fascinating, engaging book, about a subject I had never thought much about. The book is easy reading, filled with lots of anecdotes and interesting examples. The authors rely quite a bit on the wisdom of behavioral economists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Twersky. They have given a lot of thought to the subject of forecasting, and it really shows. ...more
I am sure that Taleb makes new enemies with each book he writes. If, by the end of the book, you have not been offended by something he has written, then you haven't been paying attention. Taleb is blunt, sometimes obtuse, and often right. But it really irks me that his very strong opinions are not always backed up by reasoning. Like a mathematics professor, he will often "let the reader fill in the lines of his proof."
The basic premise of the book, is that one should not believe opinions or forecasts of others, unless they have some "skin in the game." Results are all that count--opinions and talk are worthless. It is so easy for people to spout utter nonsense, so unless they could potentially suffer consequences of being wrong, you should ignore them. This goes especially for intellectuals in academia. However, "hard" science seem to be immune to this problem, because of the redeeming nature of falsification, while "scientism" -- the excessive belief in science is worthless.
The broad sweep of his aphorisms are overwhelming. Here are some examples that actually are given some logical reasoning: Genes follow majority rule. Languages follow minority rule. Islam is widespread because of its rules of conversion and parentage. "Someone with a high public presence who is controversial and takes risks for his opinion is less likely to be a bullxxxt vendor." "Employees are slaves."
And then there are aphorisms that may very well be true, but do not seem to have much back-up reasoning: "Courage (risk taking) is the highest virtue. We need entrepreneurs." "Anything that smacks of competition destroys knowledge." "Academia has a tendency, when unchecked (from lack of skin in the game), to evolve into a ritualistic self-referential publishing game."
Among the people Taleb dislikes: Steven Pinker, Hillary Clinton, journalists, intellectuals who are idiots, the Saudi regime, Monsanto, ... the list goes on and on. Taleb goes into some detail about how psychologists totally misunderstand "loss aversion", due to the concept of ergodicity.
Taleb introduces so many quirky words and expressions, that he devotes a glossary in the back of the book to explain the terms. And, the end of the book is filled with a technical appendix with some very technical mathematical proofs about probability theory.
With so many issues that I have with this book, why do I recommend it with five stars? Because the book is so thought-provoking. It jabs me everywhere, and gets me to think about a lot of things, basic assumptions about life. Take a risk--read this book....more
This book is a catalog of the hundred or so technologies that could potentially draw down the carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) from the atmThis book is a catalog of the hundred or so technologies that could potentially draw down the carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) from the atmosphere. The book was written by a couple hundred expert researchers in all walks of life. Each technology is very well presented, in a manner that is easy to understand by a non-expert. The book is very attractive, flush with color photographs appropriate for each topic covered.
Each technology is rated in terms of the amount of carbon that could potentially be removed from the atmosphere, the net cost of the technology, and the net savings. When these numbers are too speculative for an educated guess, that is mentioned. The technologies are all ranked in terms of their potential for sequestering carbon. Also, since some of the technologies are inter-related, there is an effort made to prevent double-counting the impact.
Some of the technologies are well known to most people, while others are novel. I was most interested in some of the agricultural topics. Most surprising to me was "silopasture". This entails allowing animals--mostly cattle, but other domesticated animals, also--to feed in meadows with trees. Silvopastures yield more livestock per acre than grass pastures, and sequesters five to ten times more carbon than treeless pastures. [image]
A related technology is the managed grazing of pastures by cattle. This technique vastly improves conditions of the pastures, protects organic matter, and the soil becomes more porous and better able to absorb intense rainfalls. As a result, herbicides, pesticides, fuel and fertilizers can be reduced, as well as veterinary costs. And yet another agricultural technique is known as agro-forestry, which is becoming widespread. It is positively transforming the Sahel Desert.
I was astounded by the statistic that there are 18,500 miles of high-speed rails in the world. But, only 28 of these rail-miles are in the United States. On the one hand, high-speed rails are very expensive, and on the other hand, they actually do not reduce carbon emissions very much. [image]
The emphasis in most of the book, is that these are practical, economical technologies ready to be implemented. There are net savings from most of these technologies; sequestering carbon can be cost-effective and help the atmosphere, at the same time. At the end of the book, there are a handful of future technologies that have not yet reached the stage of practicality, each of which has a bright potential for the future.
While I read the book end-to-end, it is actually more of a reference book--a very fascinating reference book! After reading the introductory sections, each topic is self-contained and can be read in isolation without losing the meaning....more
This is a fantastic book about scaling laws and how to understand them. Geoffrey West is a theoretical physicist, who has spent a lot of time at the SThis is a fantastic book about scaling laws and how to understand them. Geoffrey West is a theoretical physicist, who has spent a lot of time at the Santa Fe Institute, deriving theoretical scaling laws, and applying them successfully to biology, cities, and companies. He derives the theories from the structure of networks; arteries, capillaries in organisms, social networks and city infrastructure, and companies.
The scaling laws themselves are fascinating. In the very first chapter, Geoffrey West hits the reader with an astounding set of scaling laws that certainly surprised me. As to biology, there are about 50 different metrics that have interesting scaling laws--and West touches on a few of them. The scaling of metabolism, heart rates, brain matter, growth rates, life spans, aorta lengths, tree heights, and on and on; you get the picture. These scaling laws pertain across organisms, from the tiniest microbe to the blue whale; over 20 orders of magnitude.
But the really surprising aspect is that almost all of the scaling laws are factors of 1/4! For example, metabolic rate scales as Mass to the 3/4 power. Doubling the mass of a mammal increases its time to maturity by 1/4, its lifetime increases by 1/4, and its heart rate decreases by 1/4. And, these laws apply over the entire range of mammals, despite their diversity. Mitochondrial mass, relative to the total mass of an organism, goes as Mass to the -1/4 power. And, Geoffrey West describes how he and colleagues have derived theoretical scaling laws and growth curves from first principles. He shows how remarkably well the data fit his theoretical predictions.
As a physicist, West felt that this universal 1/4-power scaling tells us something fundamental about the dynamics, structure, and organization of life. These laws suggest dynamical processes that constrain evolution. And there are some surprising constants among all mammals. Blood pressure is approximately the same, and the number of heart beats in a lifetime is about the same, among all mammals!
But the discussion of scaling laws don't stop with biology. West finds fascinating scaling laws that apply to cities and to companies. The most perplexing question he addresses is, why do most cities live forever, while companies have short lifetimes? Cities are the prime drivers of economic development, not the nation state. And, most of the scaling laws associated with cities are either to the 0.85 or 1.15 power. That is to say, comparing two average cities, one twice as big as the other in population, the larger city will not have double the number of gas stations, but only 85% more than the smaller one. The larger city will have 115% higher wages, more doctors and lawyers, patents, GDP, number of cases of AIDS, crime and pollution. This scaling applies within all countries, but not across from one country to another.
The average half-life of companies is 10.5 years!And in any given year, the risk of a company disappearing (through bankruptcy, or merger, or acquisition) is the same, regardless of a company's size!
While cities become more diverse as they age and grow, companies do the opposite; they lose diversity, as they become more supportive of tried-and-true products in order to guarantee short-term returns. As companies grow, so too does their bureaucratic control. And, this is at the expense of innovation and R&D (Research and Development).
At times, the narrative deviates from scaling, and goes into various qualitative aspects of cities and companies. The author is rather opinionated in these areas, but his conjectures are interesting, though open to controversy. My only complaint about this book is that, while theoretical scaling laws in biology are developed and tested successfully against data, the book does not offer theoretical scaling laws for cities and companies. To some extent, these are more difficult to develop, because they depend on socio-economic structures and social networks. Data for these, especially for companies, are more difficult or expensive to obtain. Nevertheless, this book offers a wealth of information, and is endlessly fascinating. Highly recommended!...more
While I have read a few books about maintaining relationships, this book is quite different. It draws upon the principles of economics to inform the rWhile I have read a few books about maintaining relationships, this book is quite different. It draws upon the principles of economics to inform the reader how to deal with issues in a marriage. Many of the basic principles of economic-behavior theory are described here; supply and demand, loss-averse behaviors, game theory, cost-benefit analysis, moral hazards, incentives, signaling, asymmetric information, and many more. For each of these principles, the authors tell an anecdote from the business world that illustrates the principle. Then they show how the principle applies to spousal relationships, concretely with anecdotes.
The authors tell their stories with fantastic humor and straight-forward bluntness. This made the book a lot of fun to read! Some reviewers--especially women--take offense at some of the advice, but as a man, I see the advice as taking economics principles to their logical, realistic conclusion in spousal relationships.
Just to give an example of how different this book is from other marriage advice books, consider the following dilemma. The standard advice about how to get more sex from your marriage partner includes things like: have more foreplay, go on a romantic vacation, talk about it, and rekindle the mystery. This book shoves all of this advice aside, and instead recommends, "make sex more affordable". Well, the meaning has nothing to do with paying cash for sex, but to ... well, I won't spoil the details here.
I didn't read this book; I listened to the audiobook. The narrator, Renée Raudman, does an excellent reading, and made the book all the more enjoyable....more
This is a fun book that is everything about food and its enjoyment. It covers agriculture, restaurants, gourmet culture, food vendors, airplane food, This is a fun book that is everything about food and its enjoyment. It covers agriculture, restaurants, gourmet culture, food vendors, airplane food, airport food, ethnic food, and finding good food in other countries. Much of what Tyler Cowen writes is different from commonly held ideas. For example, locally-grown food can be better quality, because it can get from the farm to your kitchen faster than non-local food. But local food is not necessarily better for the environment. Cowen describes the reasons for this, and they are quite believable.
Cowen describes how and why dining in restaurants in the United States is different from other countries. Generally, in the United States, American restaurants are lower in quality because (a) the Prohibition caused many of the best restaurants to go out of business (but hasn't the effect of the Prohibition declined with time?) and (b) the catering of Americans to kids and their tastes has allowed restaurants to cater to more juvenile tastes. Hmmm... I'm not so sure about this.
But the United States has an incredible array of ethnic restaurants, and if you know where they are, you can eat very well. Cowen gives a lot of guidance as to how to choose good ethnic restaurants. And Cowen does not simply discuss high-end, expensive restaurants. He goes into great detail about finding good barbecues in Mexico, Texas, and other locations.
Cowen also describes the experience of shopping at international-food supermarkets. The smell of fish can be off-putting to some American customers, but such supermarkets can be a wonderful source of authentic food products from other countries. And, when finding good food in other countries, cheap food can actually be the best food.
I greatly enjoyed this book. It is provocative, and just when you think that the author is starting to sound elitist, he starts describing how to find good, cheap food. As he says, some of his best meals have cost less than five dollars, and sometimes even much less.
I didn't read this book--I listened to the audiobook, narrated by Stephen Hoye. I enjoyed listening to his narration, and recommend it to everyone....more
This is an excellent book about the history of humans, covering all aspects; evolution, anthropology, geography, psychology, religion, ideologies, andThis is an excellent book about the history of humans, covering all aspects; evolution, anthropology, geography, psychology, religion, ideologies, and the future of humans. Physically, the book is beautiful; the glossy paper makes it heavy as well. What really makes the book interesting is the unique points of view that the author, Yuval Harari, brings to life.
For example, early in the book, Harari mentions that chimps and sapiens (humans) can only organize in groups of up to 150, without organizing into a hierarchical structure. So, how did cities grow to their enormous size? Through fiction. Yes, that's right, through fiction, through beliefs in common myths. These are myths about ideologies. These imaginary fictions include human rights, nations, and currency; they work because many people cooperatively believe in them.
Some civilizations are built quite differently from our own. For example, the Bari Indians believe that genes do not come from a single pair of parents, but that they are contributed by multiple fathers. Monogamous relationships do not exist among their tribes. Harari discusses a number of controversial theories about nuclear families and monogamous relationships. One theory states that infidelities and divorce of modern times stem from forcing people to live in unnatural, permanent relationships. Another theory holds that monogamy and nuclear families are core human behaviors.
Harari describes the disappearance of many animal species in certain habitats that are coincidental in time with the arrival of humans. For example, Australia lost 23 of 24 large animal species at about the same time that humans migrated there. Many other islands were also rich in large mammals until humans arrived.
Harari discusses the agricultural revolution in some detail. He addresses the question why agriculture became important in the Middle East, Central America, and China, but did not become popular in Australia, Alaska, or South Africa. He explains that most plants and animals cannot be domesticated, and that regions where there is a deficit in domesticatable plants and animals did not develop agriculture.
It is obvious that Harari laments the rise of agriculture. He claims that hunter gatherers, who roamed the lands and did not stick to one location like agriculturists, were more stimulated, less in danger of starvation and disease. Their diets were more varied. Agriculture increased the volume of food, but not better quality of food, and did not yield more leisure-time. Agriculture created population explosions and pampered elites. In fact, Harari claims that the agricultural revolution is "history's biggest fraud." The culprits of this fraud were wheat, rice, and potatoes, all plants that domesticated humans! Also, farming encouraged warfare, because it forced people to fight to protect territory. And agriculture, because it developed over millennia (not overnight), created consequences gradually. People could not anticipate the full consequences of their decisions. More wheat helped to lead to more children, and less food for each.
Harari compares the Code of Hammurabi with the American Declaration of Independence. Hammurabi's code implicitly acknowledges three classes; superiors, commoners, and slaves. The Declaration of Independence states that all men were created equally. But Harari disputes this; he states that men were not created at all, but instead they evolved differently.
From a sociological point of view, Harari asks why are most cities patriarchical. It is not because men are stronger. Physical prowess is inversely proportional to social power in most societies. He explores various theories, but none of them are very compelling.
Since the French Revolution, political history is a series of attempts to reconcile liberty--which involves individual freedom--and equality. In order to understand another culture, one should look at the "Catch 22's", that is, look where rules and standards contradict each other. These contradictions are part of culture. For example, in Medieval Europe, there was a clash between Christianity and chivalry. In modern Western civilization, there are clashes between equality and liberty.
I have just scratched the surface of this big book. I will leave you with one more unique point of view expressed in this book. Harari calls the present modern age the "Age of Ignorance." I won't explain this; it would be a spoiler. This book is a wonderful introduction to sociology, and I highly recommend it to all....more
This book is an engaging, comprehensive guide to strategies, as applied to everyday life. The first part of the book focuses on standard game theory, This book is an engaging, comprehensive guide to strategies, as applied to everyday life. The first part of the book focuses on standard game theory, graphical notations for various problems, and applications of the prisoners' dilemma to everyday situations. The second part of the book concentrates more on everyday and business problems, and strategies to achieve optimal solutions. Game theory is not always applicable to all of these problems, but logic and rational problem-solving and a bit of mathematics are ever-present.
The book explores the voting issue in some detail. When two candidates are running against each other, the best strategy of course is to vote for your first choice. When three or more candidates are running, it is not always best to vote for your first choice, especially if you believe that your first choice has no chance of winning. For example, in the presidential election of 2000, there were three candidates, Bush, Gore, and Nader. If you preferred Nader to the others, you could vote for him, but your vote would be pretty much wasted, as he had little chance of winning. It would be best to vote for your second choice. But, what if the election was predicted to be much closer; what would the best strategy be then?
Furthermore, the book explores other voting systems that would allow you to list all of your voting preferences? For example, what if you could vote on all of the candidates, listing their names in preferential order. Various vote-tallying systems could take these preferences into account, and come up with a fairer assessment of the most-preferred candidate.
But here's the rub; there are numerous vote-tallying systems, each of them objective, but depending on which one is chosen, a different candidate could win. The book goes into some detail in considering the different outcomes of the 2002 presidential race, considering several of these systems.
The book also describes three different systems for auctions. Although the systems differ dramatically, the optimum strategy is the same for all of the systems.
The book describes various approaches for political negotiations. Examples include incentives and threats. But a threat is only good if it is credible. The book describes some historical approaches that have made threats credible. Another type of strategy is how a company can best compete with other companies, by setting prices that will maximize profitability.
The book has a set of exercises to try out your newly-gained understanding. One of the exercises is to consider how to make a good first impression on a first date. You are faced with two simultaneous problems; how to prove your sincerity and quality to your date, and how best to assess the sincerity and quality of your date. In other words, what is the best strategy for signaling and screening?
This book is best appreciated if you are not afraid of some simple algebra. However, many of the strategies are not at all mathematical, but simply rely on logic. I thoroughly enjoyed this book; some of the chapters were a bit repetitive, but not overly so. ...more
This is an engaging book, although it seems to be overloaded with too many statistics, without a corresponding set of insights. Lots of interesting trThis is an engaging book, although it seems to be overloaded with too many statistics, without a corresponding set of insights. Lots of interesting trends. This book is exactly the opposite of Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. This book by Mark Penn explores what happens to trends before they reach the tipping point.
There are some very interesting microtrends that I would never have expected. For example, the trend for married couples to live apart. The trend for many children to become vegetarians or vegans (yay!). The trend for couples to vote differently. The increase in left-handedness. Knitting is growing in popularity.
This is a fun book, but not terribly enlightening....more
This book is a wonderful introduction to history of predicting stock prices using mathematics and concepts from physics. It is basically a history of This book is a wonderful introduction to history of predicting stock prices using mathematics and concepts from physics. It is basically a history of pricing models; from the earliest mathematical models to the most modern ones. Of course, the best ones are maintained in secret by some super-secretive investment companies, for good reason. The only way a pricing model can be profitable is it to be better than most others being used.
The author, James Weatherall, has a PhD in physics, and is presently an assistant professor of logic and philosophy of science at the University of California, Irvine. He writes with clarity and an engaging style. His narrative follows a logical path, and does not take big diversions along the way.
Now, many of the subjects of this book are not physics at all, but applied mathematics. For example, the so-called "black box" model does not use any physics, but use purely statistical associations that are discovered algorithmically. Their name stems from the fact that they are opaque; they may make accurate predictions, but they offer no insight into the reasons for their predictions. Hence, it is difficult to judge how much confidence should be given to their results. But, for example, a model that predicts an investment strategy that returns a hundred times the S&P 500 over a fifteen-year period is nothing to be sneezed at.
Some of the models are definitely an application of physics concepts, such as the gauge theory model. I find if fascinating that this arcane physics concept has some practical applications in economics and predictions.
Some people blame these computer models for the disastrous economic downturns and stock market volatility that occur from time to time. While Weatherall sympathizes with this attitude, he wholeheartedly endorses the models, as they are simply tools. Sometimes, the assumptions and limitations of these tools are ignored, with dire consequences....more
This fascinating book peels away the truths from the untruths about economics in our societies. While the style of writing is rather dry, the content This fascinating book peels away the truths from the untruths about economics in our societies. While the style of writing is rather dry, the content is quite engaging. Many commonly held beliefs are simply wrong, as can be shown easily with a few facts and some straight-forward thinking.
Law school and college accreditation boards are not designed to hold schools to some acceptable standard for their students. They are designed to maintain the elite status of the so-called "top" schools, and to keep the upwardly-mobile schools from getting uppity and fashionable. They do this by making requirements that have little to do with the quality of education, but have much to do with the physical trappings of luxury.
A related fallacy is that it is necessary to graduate from an ivy league college to get a top job. This idea is countered by the observation that most top corporate leaders do not come from elite colleges.
Sowell shows how politicians lie with statistics. It is so easy. An incumbent politician who is running again for office can use one set of statistics about, say, household income to show how awful his predecessors were, and individual income to show how great he was while in office.
Sowell shows how foreign immigrants often raise the standard of living of poor societies. It is very perverse when dictators expel them, often causing the standard of living to decline.
Much of the book is about the unintended consequences of government interventions, laws and regulations. Many laws have exactly the opposite consequences from those intended. For example, rent control often has the effect of making housing completely unobtainable because it stymies building more housing units. City planners often make monumental mistakes as they plan street routes, mass transit, and zoning. They often have exactly the opposite effect, and cause massive traffic backups and effectively steal homes for uses that are not in the public's best interest.
I highly recommend this book for anyone who is interested in public policy....more
In this very short book, David Keith recommends that a large-scale research program be started. The program would investigate whether climate engineerIn this very short book, David Keith recommends that a large-scale research program be started. The program would investigate whether climate engineering would be practical, and assess its practicality and side effects.
By "climate engineering", Keith means spraying the upper stratosphere with sulfate aerosol, in order to decrease solar insolation. The intention is to decrease the rate of global warming. Keith makes it quite clear, that he would not want to replace a program of cutting down on emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. His intention is to supplement a reduction in greenhouse gases, in order to alleviate the worst effects of global warming.[image]
Keith goes through a number of arguments for and against such a program of climate engineering. He factors in the costs, the side effects, and the politics of such a program. He sees the most insidious side effect, as a reduction in the political will to reduce greenhouse gas production.
Keith lays out the science, and describes the political problems that are involved. He makes it clear that the decision to go ahead with such a program is not one to be made by scientists. The decision is a political one, to be made by the general public in assessing the benefits and the risks.
This is an excellent book for understanding this intriguing approach toward alleviating (but not reversing) global warming. My only reservation in recommending this book is this: David Keith, hire a good editor! The book is filled with so many typos and grammatical errors; they distracted my attention from the interesting content. [image]...more
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