Alexandru's Reviews > The Loom of Time: Between Empire and Anarchy, from the Mediterranean to China

I read a few Robert Kaplan books every year. He writes the perfect mix of travel writing, history and geopolitical analysis. He's getting older every year and that makes me appreciated that he's still writing books. This was one of the best books I've read from him.

The Loom of Time deals with the countries the span from the Eastern Mediterranean starting from Turkey to Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Kurdistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. In each country he details its history, politics, some travel experiences and also the writings of experts and local academics and politicians.

Turkey - is in the midst of neo-Ottomanism and rebuilding its old empire, even though it is part of NATO it is turning more towards Russia

Egypt - Experienced a popular revolution, brought down Mubarak only to end up even worse with the Muslim brotherhood taking power. The army had to come and take over control and restore a measure of normality. People think of the Arab Spring as a time of anarchy and are not interested in democracy but in stability.

Ethiopia - is actually a multiethnic empire with several competing groups such as the Oromo, Amhara or the Tigre. It went from a feudal monarchy under Emperor Haile Selassie who was world recognised to a communist revolution under the Derg who murdered the royal family and imposed a repressive regime. In the 1990s it faced war with Eritrea, civil war and instability. Today people long for the stable times of old and have pictures of Haile Selassie and Mengistu even though the former was murdered by the latter.

Saudi Arabia - is at the same time the most represive and the most liberal it's been in its history. MBS is stamping down on religious extremism, allowing concerts, cinema, music, giving women rights while at the same time instituting a police state which deals ruthlessly with any opposition. SA will pivot towards China if the US keeps insisting on human rights and democracy as the Saudis are not interested in that.

Syria - historically Syria has been a collection of city states and the cities like Aleppo and Damascus have had separate interests and areas of influence. It is more a geographical area rather then a country. The Ottoman Empire brought Syria under a single ruler. After WW1 Syria was partitioned and arbitrary lines were drawn which crossed religious and ethnic boundaries. Hafez al-Assad was probably the least bad dictator in the Middle East and brought a measure of peace. His son completely destroyed his father's legacy by clinging on to power and refusing to organise elections which he probably would have won. This led to a horrible civil war and a huge death toll as well as the disintegration of Syria.

Iraq - like Syria, Iraq was an artificial construct of the British Empire. It brings together three separate groups: Sunnis and Shia Arabs and Kurds. Iraq was a monarchy under the Hashemite dynasty but experinced multiple military coups and revolutions which led to the rise of Saddam Hussein. Saddam killed all his political rivals and imposed an iron rule, he then started wars with Iran and Kuwait. The American toppling of Saddam led to the expected disintegration of Iraq as there was nothing holding the various ethnic and religious groups together.

Kurdistan - the Kurds are one of the largest ethnic groups without a country, being split between Turkey, Iraq and Syria. The Kurds in Iraq have the most stable polity but are split between two ruling clans: the Talibani and the Barzani. Compared to the rest of Iraq, Kurdistan is a measure more peaceful and a working society even though it is still very corrupt. Iraqi Kurdistan tried to breakaway but were stopped by an Iranian and Iraqi blockade. The Kurds in Syria under the PYD and their armed branch the YPG are marxist and are linked to the PKK in Turkey.

Afghanistan - experienced upheaval in the 1970s as the urban elite tried to modernise the country and bring the rural tribal areas under its control. The various Pashtun, Uzbek and Tadjik tribes had their own interests. The tribes did not want to modernise and when the USSR invaded they fought a bloody guerrilla war supported by Pakistan and the US. After the USSR retreated the various tribal groups devolved into a civil war which led to the rise of the Taliban. The US fell in the same trap as the USSR and retreated in shame. After spending billions on trying to build democracy in Afghanistan the US left with nothing while currently Chinese companies are extracting the valuable resources.

Pakistan - a country which was created after millions of refugees fled India. It is a military run country as the tribal areas are unruly and can not be controlled. China is currently investing millions into the Belt and Road initiative and this may be Pakistan's chance to stabilise and develop.

It is interesting reading about Kaplan's regret about supporting the Iraq war, even though he himself had written in 1996 that what would come after Saddam's collapse will be far worse and would destroy Iraq.

My favourite quote from the book was: the greater the disorder the more extreme the order that follows it. This was in relation to Afghanistan which had descended into tribal warfare in the 1990s and the extremist Taliban came in and brought a measure of order. However, this would could apply to any place that has faced anarchy, dissolution or revolution.