Great observations from 5 economists in this ULI article. Ryan Severino, CFA reminds us of the "owners equivalent rent" flaw in the data. KC Conway, MAI, CRE, CCIM reminds us that PPI is a precursor to CPI (mostly) and that statistic declined this month. If producers are experiencing a decrease in costs, perhaps that will flow to consumers. Also - these guys are smart AND good looking! Good for them! #inflation #CPI #PPI #interestrates
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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that the consumer prices index (CPI) has fallen to 3.2% in the 12 months to March 2024, down from 3.4% in February. CPI rose by 0.6% month-on-month in March 2024, compared with a rise of 0.8% in March of last year. Neil Rudge, head of enterprise at Shawbrook Bank: "While a dip in April's inflation rate is welcome news, SMEs will remain cautious, high costs for materials and labour continue to squeeze profit margins, and the uncertainty surrounding future inflation makes planning for the coming year a challenge." Read the full story at B&C: https://lnkd.in/e_bAXucB
Inflation continues to decline but ‘still a lot of volatility in the inflation path ahead’
bridgingandcommercial.co.uk
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In addition to the official CPI data, BLS also publishes HICP data for the U.S. as a research series. The basic difference between the CPI and the HICP is that, CPI inflation includes imputed rents (owners' equivalent rent, OER). Excluding OER from CPI, we get very close to the HICP published by the BLS, so there is high consistency between the official data and the research series (see enclosed figure). Unfortunately, there is a big problem with the measure of core inflation, i.e. core CPI without imputed rents should be close to the research core HICP, and while historically these series are consistent, there has been a significant difference since 2023 (see enclosed figure). It is also worth commenting on the differences before 2011. Namely, in 2010, BLS extended the scope of OER to additional housing units – until 2010 the OER index referred only to primary residence. Probably measurement errors related to these issues are present in the data prior 2011. Moreover, that was a period of significant adjustments in the housing market after the bursting of the sub-prime bubble. Returning to the current period – it is hard to explain why there is such a large discrepancy between core HICP inflation and its equivalent calculated on the basis of CPI data. It is also worth noting that the variability of core HICP inflation in recent months differs quite significantly from the one we see in core CPI ex OER inflation. An issue definitely worth further observation. At the same time, it is worth keeping in mind that core inflation in the U.S. remains much more persistent than the HICP measure would suggest. Thoughts?
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Financial markets are continuing to anticipate the first interest rate cut will come from the RBA in September, but the RBA hasn’t ruled out the possibility that interest rates could rise again. The prospect of another interest rate rise is still live as the inflation rate, which currents sits at 4.1 per cent, remains well above the RBA’s target range of two to three per cent. RBA governor Michele Bullock warned that “while there are encouraging signs that inflation is moderating, the economic outlook remains uncertain”. The RBA maintains its laser-like focus on inflation, as the board said “returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe” remains its “highest priority”. “While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high,” . “The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.” The last consumer price index data, for the three months to December 2023, showed inflation had fallen by 0.6 per cent since the end of September. The next set of inflation data, for the first three months of 2024, will be released in April, ahead of the RBA’s next board meeting on May 7. #shivamdwivedi #vyaparikh #globalbusiness #globaleconomy #globalmarkets #globalmarkets #financialmarkets #stockmarketindia #stockmarketnews #stockmarket #marketnews
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Financial markets are continuing to anticipate the first interest rate cut will come from the RBA in September, but the RBA hasn’t ruled out the possibility that interest rates could rise again. The prospect of another interest rate rise is still live as the inflation rate, which currents sits at 4.1 per cent, remains well above the RBA’s target range of two to three per cent. RBA governor Michele Bullock warned that “while there are encouraging signs that inflation is moderating, the economic outlook remains uncertain”. The RBA maintains its laser-like focus on inflation, as the board said “returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe” remains its “highest priority”. “While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high,” . “The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.” The last consumer price index data, for the three months to December 2023, showed inflation had fallen by 0.6 per cent since the end of September. The next set of inflation data, for the first three months of 2024, will be released in April, ahead of the RBA’s next board meeting on May 7. #shivamdwivedi #vyaparikh #globalbusiness #globaleconomy #globalmarkets #globalmarkets #financialmarkets #stockmarketindia #stockmarketnews #stockmarket #marketnews
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The absence of significant inflation improvement in Q1 2024 is likely to postpone the Federal Open Market Committee's anticipated interest rate cut until at least July or later. Full article here https://ow.ly/vpVt50Rgw0b Data from the monthly Consumer Price Index for January, February, and March suggests that reaching the FOMC's 2% annual inflation target will be more challenging than expected. https://ow.ly/us7X50Rgw07: Wanna beat the recession? Now is the time to invest, take our five-question survey to see if you're a good fit 👆 #RealestateMarket #RealestateInvestment #CommercialRealestate #MultiFamilyRealEstate #Inflation
Elevated Inflation Data Expected To Delay Interest Rate Cuts — Real Estate Investor MBA
rei.mba
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The absence of significant inflation improvement in Q1 2024 is likely to postpone the Federal Open Market Committee's anticipated interest rate cut until at least July or later. Full article here https://ow.ly/vpVt50Rgw0b Data from the monthly Consumer Price Index for January, February, and March suggests that reaching the FOMC's 2% annual inflation target will be more challenging than expected. https://ow.ly/us7X50Rgw07: Wanna beat the recession? Now is the time to invest, take our five-question survey to see if you're a good fit 👆 #RealestateMarket #RealestateInvestment #CommercialRealestate #MultiFamilyRealEstate #Inflation
Elevated Inflation Data Expected To Delay Interest Rate Cuts — Real Estate Investor MBA
rei.mba
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November’s #ConsumerPriceIndex (CPI) report, to be released on Tuesday, is expected to be little changed month over month due to falling energy prices, according to Bank of America economists. In a note to clients, they anticipate core inflation moving up from 0.2% to 0.3%, which would equate to the year over year headline #CPI rate ticking down a 10th of a percentage to 3.1%, while the core should edge up a 10th to 4.1% year over year. The economists wrote the expected uptick in core inflation largely reflects swings in volatile components, specifically used car prices and lodging away from home They added that aside from these swing factors, they expect the data to be relatively supportive of disinflation, due to supply chain improvements as well as rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) expected to cool slightly month over month. More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors http://ow.ly/WJGp1055lbk
CPI inflation data not always ‘smooth sailing’: economists
proactiveinvestors.com
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The numbers are in. With April's CPI numbers dropping today we saw signs of cooling inflation, and many are hoping this points towards interest rate cuts coming this year. Some are not as hopeful. Here is an interesting read that identifies what is driving the CPI down, and what data to look for next. https://lnkd.in/eKQdwkr6
Inflation may be cooling, but Macquarie continues to call for no cuts this year By Investing.com
investing.com
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KCnomics, LLC - New home to the original Red-Shoe Ecomomist specializing in CRE, Logistics & Ports, Affordable Housing and Property Tax Appeals
4wThank you Pat. Let's hope for our CRE industry that the answer to "Are we there yet" for rate cuts is closer at gand. KC