More widespread P.M. storms likely this weekend
SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Dry air limited the number of storms on Wednesday, and that impact looks likely to continue on Thursday, with fewer storms than we might expect on a normal summer day. There could be a few showers out in the gulf tomorrow morning, but most storms will be in the afternoon, for a 30% chance of rain.
Temperatures continue to run a few degrees above average for this time of year, with highs in the low 90s. Although we have dry air in the upper levels, the surface is still very humid, so the heat index will reach as high as 105 in some places. The heat will stick around through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with high temperatures around 90 across the region.
Boaters should keep an eye out for those stray gulf showers on Thursday morning, as well as any afternoon storms that pop up near the coast. Winds will be at 5-10 knots out of the southeast early, then turning southwest as the sea breeze kicks in. Expect seas less than 2 feet, with a light chop.
The upper-level dry air will continue to filter out of the atmosphere, and rain chances will rise accordingly. Friday’s storms will be more widespread, with a 50% chance of rain in the afternoon. It looks like the weekend will be particularly active, with plenty of storms across the region on both days.
This time of year, the tropics are usually kept quiet by Saharan Dust that comes in waves off the coast of Africa. It keeps air over the Atlantic very dry, which prevents the consistent thunderstorms that are required for low pressure areas to organize into tropical cyclones. At the end of July and early August, this dust will start to subside, and we will likely start to see some tropical waves that try to spin up. Until then, things look quiet.
However, this Saharan Air Layer, or SAL, sometimes makes it all the way across the Atlantic into our area, bringing us hazy skies and colorful sunsets. A large plume of it is approaching Florida, and we could start to see impacts from it as soon as Saturday, depending on how thick the layer of dust is when it arrives.
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