Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Each State, According to Polls

There are less than four months until election day, when President Joe Biden is still expected to square off with former President Donald Trump, and polls provide a snapshot of where the race stands in each of the 50 states.

In 2020, Biden eked out a win in a handful of swing states, seizing the White House for Democrats. But four years later, most polls show Biden trailing Trump in the national popular vote as the incumbent president faces questions from many in his own party about whether he should step aside and let someone else run.

The battleground states expected to be most competitive and decide the election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but Republicans have indicated that they hope Biden's struggling poll numbers could allow an expansion of the battleground map into some more traditionally Democratic-leaning states.

Here is an overview of how Biden and Trump are polling in each state.

Newsweek reached out to the Biden and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

Alabama

Alabama is one of the most conservative states in the U.S., and Trump is expected to easily win in November. As a result, few polls have been conducted in the state. But one survey, conducted from February 29 to March 3 among 179 likely voters, found Trump leading in the state by 20 points (57 percent to 38 percent).

The state has not voted for a Democrat since 1976, when it voted for former President Jimmy Carter.

Trump won the state by about than 25 points in 2020 (62 percent to 37 percent).

Alaska

In Alaska—another Republican stronghold that has not voted for the Democratic presidential hopeful since 1964—polls point to an easy Trump win. The most recent survey from The Bullfinch Group, conducted among 250 registered voters from April 16 to 23, showed Trump up 19 points in the state (55 percent to 36 percent).

In 2020, Trump won Alaska by 10 points (53 percent to 43 percent).

Arizona

Arizona is expected to be one of the most competitive states in the 2024 election, with polls showing Trump with a narrow lead. The state has been traditionally Republican, going for the Democratic candidate just twice since 1952, but was narrowly flipped by Biden in 2020, who won by just 0.3 percentage points.

The most recent poll from Bloomberg/Morning Consult, conducted among 781 registered voters from July 1 to July 5, found Trump with a 3-point lead (48 percent to 45 percent). An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters from June 20 to July 2, found Trump with a 4-point lead (46 percent to 42 percent).

FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate of Arizona shows Trump leading by about 4.4 percentage points as of Thursday.

Arkansas

Polls show Trump easily expected to win the GOP stronghold of Arkansas, which has voted for Republicans in every election since 2000. Former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton is the only Democrat to win a presidential election there since 1980.

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 435 registered voters from October 1 to October 4, 2023, found Trump leading by 32 points (57 percent to 24 percent). He won the state by 27 points (62 percent to 35 percent) in 2020.

California

The reliably Democratic California is easily expected to back Biden in November. It is one of the most Democratic states in the country, with FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate showing a 20-point lead for Biden in the state. It has voted for the Democrat in each of the last eight White House battles.

The state carries the most Electoral College votes with 54.

The most recent poll of the state from the Public Policy Institute of California, conducted among 1,098 likely voters from May 23 to June 2, found Biden leading by 24 points (55 percent to 31 percent).

Colorado

Colorado was viewed as a swing state throughout the 2000s and 2010s but has recently shifted to being reliably Democratic.

A Global Strategy Group poll, conducted among 800 registered voters from June 17 to June 24, found Biden leading the state by 10 points (50 percent to 40 percent).

A New Bridge Strategy/Aspect Strategic survey, conducted among 632 likely voters from March 15 to March 19, similarly found Biden leading by 10 points (49 percent to 39 percent).

Biden won the state by about 13 points in 2020 (55 percent to 42 percent). The state has gone for the Democrat in each of the last four presidential contests.

Connecticut

Biden is easily expected to win Connecticut in November, a state that is viewed as having a strong Democratic lean, though some polls suggest it could be closer than in recent elections. There is no polling of the state from 2024 or 2023, and Biden won by 20 points in 2020.

The state has backed the Democrat in every White House race since 1992.

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters from October 19 to October 21, 2022, showed Biden leading by 9 points (49 percent to 40 percent). An earlier Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters from September 7 to September 9, found Biden leading by 13 points (49 percent to 36 percent).

Delaware

No polling has been conducted on Delaware, the state represented Biden in the Senate, but it is viewed as safely Democratic. Biden won Delaware by 19 points in 2020.

The state last voted for the Republican candidate in 1988 when it went for former President George H.W. Bush.

District of Columbia

No polls have been conducted on Washington, D.C., but Biden is easily expected to win. He carried D.C. with 92 percent of the vote in 2020.

Florida

Although Florida used to be a bellwether state, it has become increasingly Republican friendly in recent elections. Trump won the state by more than 3 points in 2020, despite losing the overall Electoral College.

Polls suggest he is poised to expand that lead in 2024. A Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph poll of the state, conducted from June 8 to June 11 among 432 likely voters, showed Trump with a 6-point lead (43 percent to 37 percent).

Former President Barack Obama won the state twice for Democrats in 2008 and 2012 before Trump won in each of the last two elections.

FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate shows Trump leading by 9.3 points.

Georgia

Georgia is perhaps the strongest chance for Trump to take back a state that he lost in 2020. FiveThirtyEight's aggregate shows him up by 5.2 percentage points in the former GOP stronghold, but some recent surveys suggest the race could be closer.

Biden in 2020 became the first Democrat to win the state since 1992.

A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll, conducted among 790 registered voters from July 1 to July 4, showed the president with a single point lead (47 percent to 46 percent) in the state. A University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs/Atlanta Journal Constitution poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters from June 11 to June 20, showed Trump with a 5-point cushion (43 percent to 38 percent).

Biden eked out a victory of less than 12,000 votes against Trump in 2020, largely due to growth around Atlanta, as well as its Democratic-trending suburbs. Democrats are hoping these trends will again bolster Biden in November.

Hawaii

Hawaii is expected to easily back Biden in November. It has backed the Democrat in 14 of the last 16 elections, including every one since 1988.

A Bullfinch Group poll, conducted among 250 registered voters from April 16 to April 23, showed Trump losing the state by 19 points (57 percent to 38 percent).

Idaho

Only one poll has been conducted on deep-red Idaho. The Emerson College poll from October 1 to October 4, conducted among 490 registered voters, showed Trump with a 29-point lead (55 percent to 26 percent) in the state that he won by more than 30 points in 2020.

The state has gone red in every White House election since 1968.

Illinois

Illinois, where Democratic gains are powered by the stronghold of Chicago, is again expected to support Biden. An Emerson College poll, conducted among 468 registered voters from October 1 to October 4, showed Biden up 9 points (43 percent to 34 percent).

But a Cor Strategies poll, conducted among 811 registered voters from August 24 to August 27, showed Biden with a stronger lead of 20 points (55 to 35 points).

The state last went for a Republican in 1988.

Indiana

Indiana, which backed a Democratic presidential candidate as recently as 2008 but has backed the Republican in every other battle since 1968, appears to be reliably red in 2024.

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters from March 2 to March 5, showed Trump leading by 19 points (48 percent to 29 percent).

Iowa

Although Iowa backed former President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, the state has become increasingly Republican since.

A Selzer & Co/Des Moines Register poll, conducted among 632 likely voters from June 9 to June 14, showed Trump with an 18-point lead (50 percent to 32 percent). A Cygnal poll, conducted among February 12 to February 13 among 600 likely voters, showed Trump with a 9-point lead (49 percent to 40 percent).

Kansas

An October 1 to October 4 poll, conducted by Emerson College among 487 likely voters, showed Trump with a 16-point lead (47 percent to 31 percent) in the reliably GOP-leaning state.

The state last voted for a Democratic White House candidate in 1964.

Kentucky

The most recent poll from Kentucky, conducted by Emerson College among 450 registered voters from October 1 to October 3, found Trump with a 28-point lead over Biden (55 percent to 26 percent).

Despite having a number of Democratic governors, the state has not voted for a Democratic presidential hopeful since 1996.

Louisiana

Trump is viewed as favored in Louisiana which has become reliably red since the turn of the century.

A Faucheux Strategies poll, sponsored by the Advocate and Times Picayune, found Trump leading by 15 points (48 percent to 33 points). It was conducted among 800 registered voters from April 22 to April 26.

Maine

The Trump campaign has hoped to expand the battleground map into states like Maine, where Biden won by 9 points in 2020. Polls on the Pine Tree State are scant at this point. A Digital Research survey, conducted among 609 registered voters from April 8 to April 30, showed Biden with only a 2-point lead in the state (51 percent to 49 percent).

The state has gone for the Democrat in each of the last eight elections, but due to some changing of how they divide up their electoral votes, Trump gained one of the states four electoral votes in both 2016 and 2020.

Maryland

A Public Policy Polling survey, conducted among 635 voters from June 19 to June 20, showed Biden with a 26-point lead in Maryland (56 percent to 30 percent). An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,115 registered voters from May 6 to May 8, found Biden with a 17-point lead (50 percent to 33 percent).

Maryland has gone blue in every presidential race since 1992.

Massachusetts

A YouGov/University of Massachusetts poll, conducted among 700 voters from May 17 to May 30, found Biden leading by 21 points (48 percent to 27 percent).

The state has not backed a Republican White House hopeful since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Michigan

Michigan, which has emerged as a real battleground, is expected to be among the closest states in November. According to FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of recent polls, Trump is leading by an average of 0.5 percentage points.

A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll, conducted among 694 registered voters from July 1 to July 5, showed Biden up five points (48 percent to 43 percent). An Emerson College poll conducted among 1,000 registered voters from June 30 to July 2 found Trump up one point (45 percent to 44 percent).

Biden won the state by less than 3 points in 2020, flipping it back to Democrats after Trump won it in 2016.

Minnesota

Biden holds a narrow lead in Minnesota, where FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate gives him an average lead of 1.1 percentage points.

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters from June 13 to June 18, found Biden with a 2-point lead in a head-to-head against Trump (51 percent to 49 percent). A Survey USA poll, conducted among 626 likely voters from June 12 to June 16, found Biden leading by 6 points (47 percent to 41 percent).

The state has gone for the Democratic presidential hopeful in every election since 1976.

Mississippi

No polls have been conducted of Mississippi in 2024 or 2023, but Trump is easily expected to win the ruby-red stronghold. He carried it by more than 16 points in 2020.

The state last voted for a Democrat in 1976.

Missouri

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters from June 17 to June 19, showed Trump with a 13-point lead in a head-to-head against Biden in Missouri (57 percent to 43 percent).

The state was once considered a battleground, having twice been won by former Democratic President Bill Clinton, but it has gone for the Republican in every race since 2000.

Montana

A Remington Research Group poll, conducted among 570 likely voters from June 29 to July 1, found Trump with a 20-point lead in Montana (56 percent to 36 percent). Although Montana is not viewed as competitive at the presidential level, it has gone for the Republican in all but one election since 1968, Democratic Senator Jon Tester is defending his seat in the state, and that crucial race is considered a tossup.

Nebraska

Nebraska is not expected to be competitive, with a Public Policy Polling survey from April 24 to April 25, among 737 voters, showing Trump with a 23-point lead (57 percent to 34 percent).

The state does split its electoral votes, allowing the Democrat to win one in each of 2008 and 2020.

Overall the state has gone for the Republican in all but one election (1964) since 1940.

Nevada

Republicans haven't won Nevada in a presidential race since former President George W. Bush won there in 2000 and 2004, but polls suggest Trump could win the state in November. FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Trump up by 4.8 percentage points.

A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll showed Trump up 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent). The poll was conducted among 452 registered voters from July 1 to July 4.

New Hampshire

Biden carried New Hampshire, often viewed as a potentially competitive state, in 2020. Polls show it as again being close in 2024, though Biden is viewed as having a narrow advantage.

A Saint Anslem College poll, conducted among 1,746 registered voters from June 28 to June 29, showed Trump up two points (44 percent to 42 percent) in the Granite State.

Other polls have been more positive for Biden. A University of New Hampshire poll, conducted among 1,140 likely voters from May 16 to May 20, found Biden up four points (52 percent to 48 percent). A University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov poll, conducted among 600 likely voters from May 6 to May 14, found Biden up 6 points (42 percent to 36 percent).

The state has gone blue in every White House race since 2004.

New Jersey

Polls suggest New Jersey, a Democratic stronghold that backed Biden by 16 points in 2020, could be closer than usual in 2024.

A co/efficient poll, conducted among 810 likely voters from June 26 to June 27, found Trump with a single point lead (41 percent to 40 percent) in The Garden State.

An Emerson College survey, conducted among 1,000 registered voters from March 26 to March 29, found Biden leading by 6 points (46 percent to 39 percent).

The state has gone for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992.

New Mexico

A Public Policy survey conducted among 555 voters from June 13 to June 14 showed Biden with a 7-point lead in New Mexico (48 percent to 41 percent).

Former President George W. Bush in 2004 was the only Republican to win the state since 1992.

New York

New York, another Democratic stronghold, could be a closer election in 2024 than in years' past. Democratic victories have long been driven by massive margins in New York City, even as the rest of the state is more evenly divided. But Republicans outperformed expectations in 2022, and polls suggest they could be poised to do so again in November.

FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate shows Biden up by 9.2 percentage points in the state.

A Siena College poll, conducted among 805 registered voters from June 12 to June 17, found Biden up 8 points (47 percent to 39 percent). An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters from May 28 to May 29, found Biden up 10 points (55 percent to 45 percent).

The state has been reliably blue in White House races since 1988.

North Carolina

Democrats have long had their eyes on North Carolina but have struggled to break through in presidential elections. Democrats have been able to win the Governor's race in the state in seven of the last eight contests, but Trump is viewed as the favorite in to win the Tar Heel State again in November.

The state has only backed one Democrat, Obama in 2008, in a presidential contest since 1980.

FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate shows Trump leading by 6.1 percentage points on average. A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll, conducted among 696 registered voters from July 1 to July 4, found Trump leading by 3 points (46 percent to 43 percent) in a head-to-head against Biden.

North Dakota

A Public Opinion Strategies poll, conducted among 500 registered voters from June 15 to June 19, found Trump with a 34-point lead in the ultraconservative North Dakota, winning 62 percent support compared to Biden's 28 percent.

He won the state by more than 30 points in 2020 and the state has gone for the Republican in every election since 1968.

Ohio

Ohio was previously viewed as a swing state and a bellwether, but has trended toward Republicans over the last few elections. Trump is viewed as having a clear advantage in the state. However, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is hoping to outrun the top of the ticket to secure his reelection.

The state voted for the eventual White House winner in 14-straight elections from 1964 to 2016 before going for Trump in 2020 and ending the streak.

Trump won the state by 8 points in 2020.

FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Trump with a 9.3 point lead on average over Biden. A Marist College poll, conducted among 1,137 registered voters from June 3 to June 6, found Trump with a 7-point lead over Biden (48 percent to 41 percent).

Oklahoma

A Cygnal poll, conducted among 615 likely voters from April 11 to April 12 found Trump with a 30-point lead in the reliably red Oklahoma, winning 61 percent support compared to Biden's 30 percent.

The state has not backed a Democrat for the White House since 1964.

Oregon

In Oregon, a Bullfinch Group poll of 250 registered voters from April 16 to April 23 found Biden leading Trump by 12 points (52 percent to 40 percent). An Emerson College poll of 975 likely voters from October 331 to November 1 found Biden leading by 16 points (35 percent to 51 percent).

The state is reliably Democratic, going blue in every election since 1988.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is viewed as among the closest battleground states ahead of November, with FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate giving Trump an average lead of 3.3 points.

While often being viewed as a swing state, Pennsylvania has gone for the Democrat in seven of the last eight presidential contests. Trump was able to poach the state in 2016 on his way to winning the White House.

A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll conducted among 794 registered voters from July 1 to July 4 showed Trump with a 7-point lead (51 percent to 44 percent). An Emerson College poll conducted among 1,000 registered voters from June 30 to July 2 found Trump with a 5-point lead (48 percent to 43 percent).

Rhode Island

An Embold Research poll, conducted among 1,450 likely voters from June 5 to June 14, found Biden leading the reliably Democratic Rhode Island by 7 points (40 percent to 33 percent). However, a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll showed a stronger lead for Biden of 20 points (20 points to 40 points).

The state has voted Democratic in every presidential contest since 1988.

South Carolina

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,197 registered voters from February 14 to February 16 found Trump with a 14-point lead in reliably Republican South Carolina, winning 51 percent support compared to Biden's 37 percent.

The state has voted for the Republican candidate in every White House race since 1980.

South Dakota

An Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies survey, conducted among 500 registered voters from May 10 to May 13 found Trump with a 19-point lead in ruby red South Dakota, winning 50 percent support compared to Biden's 31 percent.

The state has voted for the Republican candidate in every White House race since 1968.

Tennessee

An SRS/Vanderbilt University survey, conducted among 501 registered voters from April 26 to May 9 found Trump with an 18-point lead in Tennessee, winning 47 percent support compared to Biden's 39 percent.

The state backed Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but has backed the GOP hopeful in every other White House race since 1980.

Texas

Democrats have long had their eyes on flipping the Lone Star State, which has seen shifts away from Republicans in its cities like Houston, Dallas and Austin. But polls suggest Trump is still favored in November. FiveThirtyEight shows Trump up 8.5 percentage points in its polling aggregate.

A YouGov poll, conducted among 1,484 likely voters from June 20 to July 1, found Trump up 9 points (49 percent to 40 percent).

The state has voted Republican in every White House race since 1980.

Utah

Polls show Trump is heavily favored to win the GOP stronghold of Utah in November.

A HarrisX/Deseret News poll, conducted among 857 registered voters from June 4 to June 7, showed Trump with a 29-point lead in the state (49 percent to 20 percent). A Nobel Predictive Insights poll, conducted among 600 registered voters from April 8 to April 16, showed Trump with a 28-point lead (54 percent to 26 percent).

Utah has gone for the Republican in the presidential race every election since 1968.

Vermont

A Florida Atlantic University/PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research poll of 111 voters in Vermont from February 29 to March 3 showed Biden with a 31-point lead (59 percent to 28 percent).

The state is reliably Democratic, having gone blue in every White House race since 1992.

Virginia

Republicans are hoping to make gains in Virginia, a former Republican stronghold that flipped to a stable blue in the last four presidential elections. Polls show Biden remains the favorite in the state in November.

A SoCal Research poll showed Biden winning by 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent). A Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research poll conducted among 1,107 registered voters from June 1 to June 3 showed a tied race, with each candidate receiving 48 percent support. When other candidates were polled, however, Biden held a 1-point lead (42 percent to 41 percent).

Washington

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted from May 15 to May 16 among 615 likely voters showed Biden leading by 16 points (55 percent to 39 percent).

An Elway Research poll conducted among 403 registered voters from May 13 to May 16 showed Biden leading by 8 points (42 percent to 34 percent).

The state has been reliably Democratic, going blue in every race since 1988.

West Virginia

A Kaplan Strategies poll conducted on June 4 among 464 likely voters showed Trump winning West Virginia by 27 points (55 percent to 28 percent).

He won the state by almost 40 points in 2020 and the state has gone for the Republican presidential hopeful in every race since 2000.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, another crucial battleground state, Trump leads Biden by 1.4 points on average, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate.

The state was reliably blue from 1988 to 2012 before Trump flipped it on his way to the White House in 2016. Biden took the state back in 2020, winning by less than one percentage point.

A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll showed Biden leading the state by 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent). The poll surveyed 695 registered voters from July 1 to July 5.

Other polls have been stronger for Trump. A SoCal Research poll, conducted among 490 registered voters from June 30 to July 2, showed Trump up 1 point (44 percent to 43 percent). An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters from June 30 to July 2, showed Trump up 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent).

Wyoming

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 478 registered voters from October 1 to October 4, showed Trump up 53 points in Wyoming, winning support from 68 percent of respondents compared to 15 percent for Biden.

Trump won the state by 43 points in 2020 and no Democrat has won there since 1964.