The recent trend of the number of arrests for those illegally crossing the southern U.S. border falling month-on-month may not provide President Joe Biden with the boost he needs ahead of November's election, according to an expert.
Mark Jones, a professor of political science and a fellow in political science at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy in Texas, suggested it maybe too little and too late to try and paint the number of migrant arrests dropping in 2024 as a success story for the president, giving the Biden administration has seen years of record-breaking crossings.
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection said that 128,900 migrants were detained between ports of entry along the southwest border with Mexico in April, down 6 percent from the 137,480 figure from March 2024 and 30 percent lower than April 2023.
The figure is a part of the latest trend of arrests at the border falling in 2024 from the record high figure of nearly 250,000 encounters with migrants crossing into the U.S. from Mexico in December 2023. The figures from March were down 2.3 percent from 140,638 arrests in February, the first time since 2017 that arrests between this period have gone down. The fall in migrant arrests in April also bucked the usual trend of the figures increasing once spring arrives.
Jones suggested that while the number of border encounters and arrests falling is positive news for the Biden campaign, a "modest decline" is unlikely to "alter the narrative of a border crisis," which the president has faced throughout his time in office.
"The number of apprehensions during the current fiscal year is still on track to be over 3 million, the highest in any year other than 2023, and more than four times the average of apprehensions which took place during the Trump Administration," Jones told Newsweek.
"For the Biden Administration, the year-on-year decline in the number of apprehensions in April is only positive in the sense that it may be a signal that the situation has reached its nadir, but the reality is that the crisis remains far worse than in any year other than the preceding 2023 fiscal year.
"In sum, other than providing a talking point for Biden supporters attempting to put a positive spin on the border crisis, the reality is that the border and immigration crisis is going to continue to be a millstone around Biden's neck as he campaigns for re-election," Jones added.
The White House has been contacted for comment via email.
Numerous polls have indicated that the hot topic issue of illegal immigration may hinder the president's reelection hopes in his battle with predecessor Donald Trump, with voters believing the Republican would be better at handling the crisis at the southern border than the incumbent.
Adam Isacson, a migration and border expert from the Washington Office on Latin America, suggested that the fall in migrant crossings may be more down to Mexico's actions—including increased patrols and checkpoints—rather than anything the Biden administration is doing.
"The only policy change has been Mexico cracking down harder," Isacson told the BBC. "Everything else is the same as it was [in December]. There's been no new real announcements, and no changes in deportations.... but it's become harder for them to get to the northern border."
Troy A. Miller, the senior official performing the duties of the commissioner, said that "increased enforcement" on the U.S. side has resulted in a fall in migrant arrest borders in recent months.
"We will remain vigilant to continually shifting migration patterns," Miller said in a statement. "We are still experiencing challenges along the borders and the nation's immigration system is not appropriately resourced to handle them, so we continue to call on Congress to take action that would provide our personnel with additional resources and tools."
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About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, domestic policy ... Read more
