Joe Biden Faces a Ticking Time Bomb in Iraq

While President Joe Biden grapples with global controversy and regional unrest over the war in Gaza, Iraqi militias appear to be running out of patience in their demands for a total exit of U.S. troops from their country.

Over a month has passed since Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani held his first visit to Washington, D.C., to discuss, among other key issues, the future of the U.S. military presence in Iraq. Al-Sudani has publicly expressed a desire for a speedy timeline for a U.S. withdrawal, but the Pentagon has yet to broadcast any such framework and has previously said it had no plans to pull out all U.S. forces.

But as tensions continue to mount across the Middle East, with Iran-aligned "Axis of Resistance" groups increasingly mounting attacks against Israel from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, a representative of one of the movements tied to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq coalition that mounted a monthslong campaign of rocket and drone attacks against U.S. forces asserted that the frustration of these factions was directed solely toward Washington.

"There is and will not be any feeling of frustration towards the leadership of the Iraqi government regarding its attempts to end the American presence in particular and the international coalition forces in general," a representative of the Popular Mobilization for the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, also known as the Iraqi Basij, told Newsweek, "because we realize that the Americans and their allies have no security."

"With their brutality, obstinacy and arrogance," the representative added, "all political and diplomatic means will not work for them, and they will not abide by any agreement."

Newsweek reached out to the Pentagon and the U.S. State Department for comment.

The term basij is Persian for "mobilization" and mirrors the name of the Iranian Basij, a paramilitary branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Iraqi Basij is not to be confused with the Popular Mobilization Forces, an Iraqi state-backed coalition of militias, some of which are active members of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq despite protests from Baghdad.

The precise identities and allegiances of the vast network of largely Shiite Muslim militias active in Iraq are nebulous. Formally announced in July of last year, the Iraqi Basij is directly tied to one particular faction, Ashab al-Kahf, which itself is believed to be closely associated with other leading factions, such as Asaib ahl-Haq, the Nujaba Movement and Kataib Hezbollah.

As is the case for each of these factions and many others aligned with the "Axis of Resistance" in the Middle East and beyond, the Iraqi Basij's logo bears a raised Kalashnikov-style rifle in the style of the IRGC.

But the Iraqi Basij has portrayed itself as a citizens' movement, engaging in protests and acts of civil resistance, including rallies targeting the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, rather than armed operations as other members of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have.

"Based on our conviction that the people are the basis of the resistance's legitimacy and the storehouse of its strength, it was necessary for us to develop that link that connects them," the Iraqi Basij representative said, "so we headed to form the civil Popular Mobilization that takes upon itself to support the decisions of the resistance, support it, clarify its goals, and fight all attacks that intend to weaken the solid base of the resistance."

"Despite the fact that the 'Popular Mobilization' is under the management of the Ashab al-Kahf faction, we do not seek to monopolize the efforts of our youth through it," the Iraqi Basij representative added. "Rather, through it, we support the title of resistance in its general form, and thank God we were able to effect some change through it."

U.S. troops have a long history of facing insurgency in Iraq, dating back to the instability that erupted in the wake of the U.S.-led invasion that toppled longtime President Saddam Hussein in 2003. With aid from Iran, Shiite Muslim factions targeted both U.S. forces and a rival Sunni Muslim insurgency that included Al-Qaeda in Iraq, from which the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) spawned a decade later.

The rise of ISIS prompted the formation of the Popular Mobilization Forces among mostly Shiite Muslim militias as well as a U.S.-backed coalition, both of which supported the Iraqi military in defeating the jihadis. But as tensions between Washington and Tehran worsened, clashes again erupted between U.S. forces and Iraqi militias in 2019, culminating in the U.S. killing of IRGC Quds Force chief Major General Qassem Soleimani and Popular Mobilization Forces deputy commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at Baghdad International Airport in early 2020.

After Biden took office amid heightened frictions in Iraq in 2021, he announced the formal end of the U.S. "combat mission" in the country but maintained U.S. troops there in an advisory and training role with the goal of ensuring ISIS' lasting defeat. The war in Gaza, sparked by an unprecedented surprise attack by the Palestinian Hamas militant group against Israel, has prompted new hostilities against both the U.S. and Israel.

In the most recent attack claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the militia coalition announced Tuesday that it had conducted a drone strike against Israel's southern Red Sea port city of Eilat, a regular target of both the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and Yemen's Ansar Allah, or Houthi movement.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq also launched a campaign of near-daily operations against U.S. troops in Iraq and neighboring Syria shortly after the war in Gaza began. The campaign came to a head in January after three U.S. soldiers were killed at the Jordan-Syria border, to which the Biden administration responded with an intensive set of strikes in Iraq and Syria, as well as the killing of a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander in Baghdad.

These events, along with news of Washington and Baghdad discussing a "transition" of the U.S. military presence in Iraq via the bilateral Higher Military Commission, were followed by a pause in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq's campaign.

However, members of various groups, including Ashab al-Kahf, have told Newsweek that the attacks could resume at any time and with greater intensity, a prospect stirring consternation among Baghdad officials in their balancing act with Washington, Tehran and local factions.

Reached for comment on the latest developments, an Iraqi government spokesperson told Newsweek that "the Iraqi government is making great internal and regional efforts in order to maintain a state of internal stability, maintain balance, move away from alignment with conflicting axes, and spare the country from unaccounted reactions."

"We believe that the government has achieved clear success so far in controlling the course of events," the Iraqi government spokesperson added, "despite small actions that occur at intermittent periods."

While the factions of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have, at times, differed on their individual strategies, the Iraqi Basij representative emphasized that they have one overarching common goal.

"Regarding the American occupation forces and plans to confront them, each party has its own vision of that, with agreement on the most important point: 'They are occupying forces that must be expelled,'" the Iraqi Basij representative said. "The difference is only in how to work on that according to circumstances that may change from one moment to the next."

"As for the resistance's strategy and its capabilities to do that," the Iraqi Basij representative added, "'We will cross that bridge when we come to it."

While consistent attacks have yet to resume, signs of tensions mounting in Iraq have already become apparent with influential Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who commands the Saraya al-Salam militia, calling for the closure of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and the expulsion of the U.S. ambassador in Iraq in a statement on Tuesday.

Sadr said that the move, an act of protest over U.S. support for Israel amid the war in Gaza, would "demonstrate our civility in the face of their aggression and arrogance," constituting "a more effective deterrent than force, which could give them a pretext to destabilize Iraq."

Responding to the remarks, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters later that day that "we value our broad strategic relationship with Iraq and remain committed to working with the government of Iraq to expand opportunities for all Iraqis, and support Iraq's security, stability, and sovereignty."

Yet some attacks against U.S.-linked sites in Baghdad have emerged, including against three KFC restaurants in recent days that were first reported by local outlets associated with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, along with footage of at least one of the incidents.

"We are tracking those reports and obviously condemn the act of violence," Miller said, "and we welcome the statement by Iraqi authorities that they are investigating the attack and want to see them fully do so."

Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh also touched upon the incidents during a press briefing the following day, emphasizing that "our mission there is to ensure the defeat of ISIS."

"If these are acts of terror or terrorist organizations are behind these attacks," she added, "this is exactly what we're working with the Iraqi security forces to address."

Update 06/03/2024, 11:52 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to include comments from a spokesperson for the Iraqi government.