Nuclear Terrorism 'Risks Are High,' Researchers Warn

The threat of nuclear terrorism is something we should be increasingly keeping an eye on, according to a new report.

Released by a National Academies committee, the report was commissioned by Congress under the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act and was put together by the Departments of Defense and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration, as well as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.

Over the past few decades, the U.S. has employed a multifaceted approach to prevent nuclear terrorism, drawing on international cooperation, nonproliferation treaties, domestic security measures, intelligence efforts and technological advancements, but this report warns that the nation must remain prepared.

It concludes that while efforts have been made, they are not sufficient to address the evolving threat. The report highlights the need for expanded, sustained and adaptive measures to manage the risk of nuclear terrorism effectively.

"The issue of nuclear terrorism remains very much a real one. There are enormous stakes involved and the risks are high, but the issue has been falling off the radar screen of the American public over the last 15 years, and the skill set of people involved in managing it is aging out," said Stephen Flynn, a professor of political science and founding director of the Global Resilience Institute at Northeastern University, who chaired the committee.

"We really need to keep our eye on the ball. It was quite timely for Congress to call for an assessment of this risk and provide recommendations for staying on top of this issue," Flynn told Northeastern Global News, a university publication.

The report says there have been many changes to the landscape of nuclear terrorism since 9/11 and the Iraq War.

"We had a war on terror after 9/11, but that didn't succeed in eliminating the terrorism threat," Flynn said. "Terrorism continues to morph."

Now, with Israel's actions in the Palestinian territories, as well as actions by Hamas and Iranian proxy group Hezbollah—both considered terrorist groups by the U.S. State Department—we live in a world where non-states and nuclear weapons–seeking states are involved in wars.

"The designation between non-state versus state actors is blurry," Flynn said. "The assessment reveals we have to be focused on where those two things may overlap."

Flynn also said there has recently been a lack of distinction between domestic and international terrorism.

"Particularly when you look on the far right, international terror groups are recruiting Americans into these organizations, and Americans are reaching out to extremist organizations that have terrorism elements," he said.

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the U.S. were the world's two major nuclear powers, but now there are three with the addition of China.

"It's hard to reach arms control agreements as a two-way relationship," Flynn said. "It's almost impossible to do as a triad."

As of 2024, there are over 12,000 nuclear warheads globally. Russia holds around 5,580, the U.S. approximately 5,100, China 500, France 290, and the U.K. 225. India and Pakistan each have about 170 warheads, Israel has 90, and North Korea possesses 50, according to the Federation of American Scientists.

The report said that during the 20th century Russia and the U.S. both wanted to limit the world's supply of nuclear weapons, while now there is an increased demand for, and availability of, nuclear materials, with fewer ways of controlling them.

"We're in a world right now where most of the control of the programs in place to manage supply and control of nuclear weapons [is] basically unraveling," Flynn said.

"With rising world tensions, there is no scope now for arms reductions to take place, sadly," Rod Thornton, an associate professor in international studies, defense and security at King's College London, told Newsweek.

The report also said the National Academies committee is concerned about the flourishing of the civilian nuclear sector.

"Many new nuclear plants are going to places they've not gone before, and this is not happening with the U.S. setting and enforcing the rules but being led by the Chinese and Russians, with fewer security controls in place," Flynn said.

"Most of the materials that can be used to produce a 'dirty bomb' have always been challenging to control, and now there are more available. Even without state actor complicity, there is more risk that terrorist groups can get their hands on these materials," he said.

However, the report isn't all doom and gloom. It states that the U.S. is more than capable of getting on top of many of the challenges discussed.

"One of the big messages is, as a nation we have invested a lot of effort into managing this risk over the years, and that has been—knock on wood here—a reason a nuclear incident hasn't happened," Flynn said. "Let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater—we've got a lot of capability, let's stay on top of it."

He continued: "There is a lot of knowledge we have about managing the nuclear risk, as we have been doing it for decades, but there are also new tools and there's a lot of ways to update our response from the Cold War days.

"This is something we should be worried about.... But take a deep breath: We have been managing this risk since the dawn of the nuclear age, so let's draw on that experience, and there are new technologies and ways we can deal with this risk that are better aligned to the world we are living in."

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