'Nuclear Disaster' Warning Issued by Analysts Over Ukraine War

The longer the war in Eastern Europe continues between Russia and Ukraine and the more provocations that occur worldwide, the closer the entire world becomes to "flirting with nuclear disaster," two nuclear analysts warn in a new editorial.

It has been over 28 months since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, leading to a drawn-out conflict currently viewed by many in the foreign policy realm as a stalemate. Although the exact number of casualties remains unknown, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense estimates that Russia's amassed roughly 535,660 dead soldiers compared to the 30,000 minimum soldiers lost by Ukraine.

In January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board (SASB) reset the worldwide Doomsday Clock and kept it at 90 seconds to midnight—representing no change in the perceived nuclear threats largely connected to the Russia-Ukraine war, but prompting further caution toward the "closest to global catastrophe" the world has ever been.

Ivana Nikolic Hughes, president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and senior lecturer in chemistry at Columbia University, and Peter Kuznick, a professor of history and director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University in Washington, D.C., co-authored a new piece in Responsible Statecraft—an online magazine of the Quincy Institute—cautioning of how increased military and governmental threats coupled with advanced weaponry could lead the world into a no-win scenario.

"It's time to change policy on Ukraine and to stop the escalation escalator before it is too late. A Swiss peace conference without Russia or China has done nothing to advance that goal. Nor have the recent G7 meetings in Italy, the NATO pronouncements, or, for that matter, the grandiose war games being conducted by both sides in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans."

The pair added: "This is a good place to start, as would be an emergency meeting of world leaders that the U.N. General Secretary Antonio Guterres could call for. Continuing to play nuclear roulette is not an acceptable path forward."

They allude to increased year-over-year defense spending of NATO allies, including an estimated 13 percent increase on global nuclear weapons to a record $91.4 billion in 2023, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.

That equates to a $10.7 billion increase in spending on nuclear weapons in 2023 compared to 2022, led by the U.S. funding 80 percent of that increase.

On June 17, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington—touting the spending increases and confirming that 23 allies will spend at least 2 percent of their GDP. He said the number of NATO countries hitting that target has more than doubled in the past four years.

Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Asia as both countries remain isolated from the West. Putin and other Russian officials have routinely and cavalierly made nuclear threats against the West since the invasion first occurred.

The pair struck a deal, pledging mutual military assistance "without delay by all means at its disposal" if either nation is attacked. South Korea, the United States, and Japan condemned the move, saying in a joint statement Sunday that the treaty "should be of grave concern to anyone with an interest in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula."

Avoiding a 'blunder into oblivion'

Hughes and Kuznick said the most frightening part of nuclear war is that there is "no do-over" and no second chance to revisit a more humane, nonviolent compromise.

Hughes told Newsweek via phone on Thursday that she and Kuznick authored the piece due to recent escalations and geopolitical turmoil, including not just the war in Eastern Europe but threats across Asia and the continued violence in Gaza.

"I've been concerned all along," Hughes said. "I wouldn't say that we weren't in danger then and now we're in danger...I'm more concerned about a blunder into oblivion."

She said the probability of nuclear war has never been zero, notably after national stockpiles in different countries have accumulated over the years and weapons have become more advanced.

But there are times when that probability is increased, such as in the present. The world is different now than when Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev united against nuclear warfare, yet some semblance remains dating back to President John F. Kennedy, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Cold War that followed.

"Even if you have some low probability estimate that something bad happens in the course of one year, over the course of 50 years or 80 years—the course of a lifetime of a child born today—that probability skyrockets," she said.

Kuznick told Newsweek via phone that the stakes are heightened in a period of relative global unrest.

He referred to how even U.S. officials, who hail from the same country that has provided Ukraine with over $100 billion in aid, recently expressed concern over Ukrainians attacking Russian radar systems—military moves that also could lead to escalation.

"I think what really was the dramatic change occurred with the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring and summer, and the setbacks on the battlefield that Ukraine had been suffering—combined with the growing realization that Ukraine is just so badly outmanned and unarmed that Ukraine was on the verge of losing or being forced to accept Putin's terms," Kuznick said.

The smartest way out of the conflict is for Ukraine, NATO and Western nations to negotiate with Putin, he added, acknowledging that Putin's wants may be uncompromising in theory.

"As a planet, we are on a path to disaster and potential mutual destruction," he said.

Otherwise, he foresees hundreds of thousands of more casualties, more physical destruction, more talent and resources wasted in Russian soldiers being conscripted, and more worldwide oppression from an anti-war sentiment.

"I don't see anything to be gained from continuing the fighting," he said. "Ukraine is not going to drive Russia all out of Ukraine; Russia won't let that happen. They're more sophisticated...I think we're really on the slipperiest slope towards World War III and nuclear war that I've seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis and maybe ever in my lifetime."