Will Kamala Harris Be Judged on Biden's Economy? It's Complicated

Almost 50 percent of Americans think the U.S. economy is in a worse state now than it was when Joe Biden took office in January 2021, according to an exclusive poll for Newsweek.

While most blame the president for how the nation's economy is faring, a significant percentage consider Kamala Harris responsible—which doesn't bode well for the Democratic nominee with less than 80 days to go before the election.

Some 41 percent of Americans surveyed by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek on August 15 said that they would describe the U.S. economy as "bad" (21 percent) or "very bad" (20 percent); a total of 36 percent described it as "good" (24 percent) or "very good" (12 percent). For 20 percent of respondents among the 1,500 eligible voters in the U.S. surveyed, the U.S. economy is neither good nor bad.

A total of 93 percent of respondents among those who found the U.S. economy to be "bad" or "very bad" thought Biden was significantly responsible for it (55 percent), fairly responsible (20 percent) or somewhat responsible (18 percent). This is nothing new for Biden, whose popularity dwindled through his presidency and who's consistently been blamed for the economy's post-pandemic troubles, despite leading a strong recovery.

But a fair share of voters also blame his vice president for what they perceive as the bad state of the U.S. economy. Among those who found the economy to be somewhat bad, 88 percent thought Harris was significantly responsible for it (47 percent), fairly responsible (21 percent), or somewhat responsible (18 percent).

"Persistent inflation was a significant political burden for Joe Biden, and now it weighs heavily on Kamala Harris, as well," Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek.

"Harris has vowed to confront the cost of living crisis, but she seems to conveniently forget that she's been in office the last three and a half years advocating 'Bidenomics'," he added.

The country's economy is expected to be crucially important in the November election, as recent polling has shown that Americans think economic issues are among the most important problems facing the nation.

A July poll by Gallup found that 33 percent of Americans thought economic problems were the most important issue facing the country today, down from 36 percent in June, May and April. Thirteen percent were concerned about the economy in general, while another 13 percent pointed to the high cost of living/inflation as the most pressing problem in the country.

A poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek on July 15 among 3,500 eligible voters found that 59 percent of Americans thought the economy was the most important issue in the country today. Forty-six percent thought they were worse off now than they were before the pandemic, while 34 percent thought they were better off and 21 percent said they were about the same.

Only 33 percent of voters surveyed by Redfield & Wilton Strategies this month found the U.S. economy to be in a better state than it was in January 2021; 46 percent thought it was in a worse state. On top of that, 45 percent of respondents thought the economy is heading in the wrong direction, against 35 percent who believed it's going the right way.

Voters' perception of which party did a better job in handling the U.S. economy could be crucial in November. While Trump has an observable track record from his years in the White House, Harris has never sat in the Oval office as president—but she doesn't exactly come with a blank slate either.

As vice president for the past four years, Harris is clearly being considered partly responsible for the Biden administration's economic policies—and her new economic proposals promising to empower the middle class don't appear too far from those in Biden's plans.

For Gift, Harris' economic agenda is not necessarily a winner. "Harris's pledge to ban price gouging on groceries and food is both bad politics and bad policy," he said. "Policy-wise, many economists have blasted Harris's proposal as a gimmick that would only raise the consumer price index by constricting supply. Politically, when your adversary labels you a communist, it might not be the brightest thing in the world to explicitly champion price controls."

Housing Crisis

Harris has also called for the construction of three million new housing units over four years to increase affordability in the country's housing market and address the "serious housing shortage in America," as reported by PBS.

She's also planning on having a $40 billion innovation fund for businesses building affordable rental housing units across the country, and she has promised to continue Biden's efforts to negotiate with drugmakers to lower prices for prescription medications.

"My view is that Harris is trying to separate herself from the broader economic policies of the Biden administration by proposing a shift in economic policy to support families, house building, the middle class and blue-collar workers," Mike Tappin, an honorary fellow at Keele University in the U.K. and co-author of American Politics Today, told Newsweek.

As the number of Americans who consider the economy to be in a poor state has lowered in the latest polls, "the question now is whether Harris can build on this to bring a Democratic Party victory not only for the presidency, but in both houses," Tappin said.

Despite widespread pessimism, the U.S. economy is not doing nearly as badly as many Americans seem to think, economists told Newsweek. Inflation has been consistently cooling down, job growth is strong and unemployment low.

John Van Reenen, Ronald Coase Chair in Economics and School Professor at the London School of Economics (LSE) in London and Digital Fellow, Initiative for the Digital Economy at the Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT), previously told Newsweek that much of Americans' unhappiness with the state of the economy can be described as a "hangover" from the rise of inflation that followed the pandemic.

"Prices are coming down but that increase is still fresh in people's memories," he said. "Governments all over the world are being punished for that bad experience, and I think that's part of what's happening in the U.S," he added. "It's ironic, because, compared to other advanced countries, the U.S. is doing fantastically well in terms of growth."

Voters are not completely wrong either. Despite lower inflation, prices remain higher than they were, and might stay so for quite some time. According to the latest data from the U.S. Labor Department, released on August 14, the annual inflation rate in the country was 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending in July, down from the previous rate increase of 3 percent.

Though lower than the peak reached during the pandemic, inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve's goal of 2 percent.