WASHINGTON – Endorsing your colleagues in the congressional delegation, as House Speaker Mike Johnson did Monday, would seem like a simple enough exercise.
But with the U.S. Supreme Court last week reimposing a redistricting map that, for now at least, includes two districts with Black majorities instead of only one, Johnson's action had many political observers seeing a deeper meaning.
The clue was in Johnson's press release backing his four fellow Republicans in Louisiana’s House delegation, which not only named each member; it also specified the district Johnson is endorsing them to represent. Rep. Garret Graves, R-Baton Rouge, whose 6th District has been totally upended, has not said which district he plans to seek.
“Rep. Garret Graves has always been a recognized policy expert and a strong advocate for Louisiana, working for necessary disaster relief and protecting our natural resources and our way of life,” Johnson's release said. “I am proud to endorse Rep. Graves for re-election in the 6th District.”
Under the configuration now in place for the Nov. 5 election, the population of the 6th District is 56% Black – a far cry from the majority-White district that has elected Graves since 2015. Johnson did not endorse the delegation’s only Democrat, Rep. Troy Carter, D-New Orleans, whose redrawn district is now 53% Black.
Is Johnson trying to telegraph that Baton Rouge-based Graves should not challenge Rep. Julia Letlow, R-Start? That's how Roy Fletcher, a longtime Baton Rouge strategist, interpreted it – in part because of the timing. The election season hasn't gotten under way; the only drama political observers are following at this stage is Graves' musing over which district to run for.
“I think what he’s trying to do is to keep Garret Graves out of the race with Letlow. I’ve never heard of that kind of endorsement this early,” Fletcher said. “Is this more what Graves is going to do or what Mike Johnson thinks Graves is going to do?”
Or has the fractious redistricting case put Johnson, R-Benton, into a position of searching for diplomatic ground, as posited by pollster Bernie Pinsonat, another veteran political strategist?
“I think Johnson doesn’t want to alienate Graves this early,” Pinsonat said. “He and every member of the delegation are in a sensitive climate, and that won’t change until Garret reveals where he is going to run.”
About a third of Louisiana’s population is Black, according to the 2020 census. A federal court found that for the state’s congressional delegation to comply with the Voting Rights Act, which protects the involvement of minority groups in the election process, two of Louisiana’s six congressional districts needed to be drawn to give a Black candidate a real chance at victory.
Louisiana legislators in January redrew the maps – which in 2022 elected the five White Republican and one Black Democratic member now representing the state – to include two majority Black districts.
But another federal court in April found the Legislature’s January map relied too heavily on race and threw it out. The Supreme Court last week suspended that order while it waded into the issue of how to interpret the Voting Rights Act to protect minority groups without gerrymandering.
That restores the January map with its two Black majority congressional districts – at least for the upcoming election.
Baton Rouge pollster John Couvillon said Graves would have to attract about 20% of the Black vote and nearly every White vote in the new 6th District to prevail.
In the newly drawn 5th District, Letlow picked up about 40% of Graves' Baton Rouge-area base – potentially giving him a credible reason for running there. Graves would need to sweep those constituents, plus pull some votes from the central and north Louisiana precincts currently represented by Letlow, Couvillon said.
Graves made clear Friday that he plans to run in the fall. He just won’t say in which district.
“As previously stated, we are running for reelection in a district anchored in the Capital Region,” Graves said in a statement. “Because of the absurdity of the map, we are looking through these districts to determine where we can best represent the interests and priorities of the people of Louisiana for the next two years until a reasonable map is restored.”
Johnson declined to comment beyond his press release. So did Graves.
In his release, Johnson also backed Letlow “for reelection in the 5th District,” citing her work on the House Appropriations Committee. He also endorsed House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Jefferson and Rep. Clay Higgins of Lafayette, the other two GOP members of Louisiana's delegation, to continue representing their respective districts.
True, endorsements of colleagues are coming a little early in the process. But as speaker, the House’s top leader and the highest-ranking elected Republican, Johnson has been endorsing GOP House candidates over the past few months.