Polls conducted after the presidential debate have been trickling out, painting various pictures of what’s going on in the election. Topline findings from the latest CNN poll, among others, are cherry-picked to back up conflicting conclusions.
Pro-Biden Democrats happily emphasize that CNN’s poll shows the race hasn’t changed since April, despite Biden’s desultory debate performance. But other Democrats, who want Biden replaced as their nominee, make the point that Biden losing to Donald Trump by a six-point margin — as CNN’s polling shows — is, by any measure, alarming.
Ron Faucheux
Other polls show a narrower Trump lead but, overall, the movement has been in Trump’s favor. Based on five-way trial heats, the five pre-debate polls had Trump ahead by an average of 3.4 points and the five latest post-debate polls have him ahead by 4.6 points.
The new CBS poll shows Trump now leading key battleground states by three points; before the debate, Biden was leading them by a point.
The question for Democrats is not whether another Democrat can beat Trump, but whether another Democrat would have a better chance to beat Trump. Polling is increasingly critical, but the numbers must be read carefully. Looking at only “topline” poll numbers isn’t enough; we must open the hood and look at the “internal” numbers as well.
CNN’s internal numbers show that 72% of all voters say Biden’s “level of physical and mental ability” is reason to vote against him, and a majority of Democrats (56%) say they’d have a better chance winning the election if someone other than Biden were their nominee. It also shows that Biden’s job approval rating has dropped to 36%, a four-point decline since April, and his disapproval rating has zoomed to a thumping 64%.
The poll also finds that all four Democrats tested do better than Biden against Trump. While Biden loses to Trump by six points, Vice President Kamala Harris loses by two points, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg loses by four points and both Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom lose by five points.
Because Whitmer and Newsom have never run for national office, they’re currently at a disadvantage in national polling. Lack of name recognition limits their reach, but the upside for them is that they have more room to grow than do either Biden or Harris.
The fact that Trump is now polling better than he did in 2016 or 2020 rightly scares Democrats. They also worry how this translates into electoral votes.
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump did better in key swing states that determine the electoral vote winner than in the national popular vote, which he lost both times. This was crucial to his Electoral College majority over Hillary Clinton, even though he lost the national popular vote in that election by two percentage points.
But what happens if Trump, for the first time, wins the national popular vote? Would that push the key swing states into his column?
The CBS poll also finds that Democrats have a voter turnout disadvantage. More Republicans than Democrats — by a substantial 9-point margin — say they’ll definitely vote. Will the present uncertainly over Biden’s candidacy dig that hole even deeper?
The debate didn’t end this election. It just made it harder for Biden to win it. Both major candidates have high negatives, and either is capable of blundering his way to defeat. But in an election where, as Democrats insist, the very existence of our democracy is at stake, shouldn’t they at least try to run their strongest candidate?
It’s always possible that Trump could blow his lead. It’s also possible that, in the end, no Democrat could win. Even without Biden’s age and fitness issues, his other negatives — he runs behind Trump on the economy by 19 points and on immigration by 22 points — may carry over to another Democratic nominee.
Biden’s problem as a presidential candidate is not one debate, but his inability to sell a message, any message, any time. It’s hard for a candidate who seems disoriented and weak to persuade the mass public. Maybe that’s why nothing the president has done over the past six months has improved his reelection chances.
The rubber has hit the road.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst, pollster and writer. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.