Montreal QB Cody Fajardo loves playing against Hamilton: In three games against the Tiger-Cats, Fajardo has recorded an adjusted completion rate of 79.7%, a 118.0 passer rating and an 86.4 PFF passing grade. In all his other games, his passer rating falls to 89.8, and his passing grade is just 64.7.
Calgary QB Jake Maier will look for a big game from WR Reggie Begelton: Maier has a 110.2 passer rating when targeting Begelton. When looking elsewhere, that rating falls to just 78.5.
BC edge defender Mathieu Betts can ruin an offensive game plan: Betts' 90.2 pass-rush grade is the best in the league, while his 91 total pressures are 18 more than second place.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS VS. MONTREAL ALOUETTES
The CFL postseason is finally here, and it promises to be a good one.
The Alouettes and Tiger-Cats have played three times this season, with the Als winning all three games. But this is the playoffs, where anything can happen.
Montreal fields one of the best defenses in the CFL. They are led by safety Marc-Antoine Dequoy, the highest-graded defensive player in the league (90.5) and elite rookie halfback Reggie Stubblefield (88.7).
Across from them will be a Hamilton team that finally has its top two quarterbacks healthy. Coach Orlondo Steinauer has said they will use Bo Levi Mitchell (61.2) and Matthew Shiltz (82.2) at QB in this game. Whoever ends up playing down the stretch will need to step up in a big way if Hamilton is to have a chance in this game.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: LG BRANDON REVENBERG, HAMILTON VS. DI MUSTAFA JOHNSON, MONTREAL
The league's best offensive lineman against the league's best interior defender. That alone makes it the top matchup to watch.
Revenberg has come out on top of this battle this year. In three games against the Tiger-Cats, Johnson has beaten Revenberg just once across 38 pass-rush matchups. Johnson has a pass-rush grade of just 72.1 against Hamilton. Against all other teams, he earned a pass-rush grade of 88.9.
Montreal has such a good secondary that Hamilton quarterbacks will need time in the pocket to decipher it. If Johnson finally finds a way to beat Revenberg and this Hamilton offensive line, it could be a long game for the TiCats offense.
HAMILTON PLAYER TO WATCH: CB RICHARD LEONARD
Leonard switched from defensive halfback to outside corner halfway through the season and didn’t miss a beat. He's been one of the most impressive players of the campaign.
Leonard finished as the third-highest-graded defensive player in the league at 88.3 overall. He has yet to allow more than 70 yards receiving in a single game, and he has yet to allow a touchdown in coverage. In all, he forced an incompletion on 16.7% of his targets, one of the highest marks in the CFL.
The Hamilton cornerback will see a lot of sensational rookie receiver Austin Mack this game. Slowing him down will be key to a Hamilton upset.
MONTREAL PLAYER TO WATCH: QB CODY FAJARDO
The 2023 season hasn’t been the greatest season of Fajardo’s career by any means. That said, he has thrived against the Hamilton defense this season.
In three games against the Tiger-Cats, Fajardo has recorded an adjusted completion rate of 79.7%, a 118.0 passer rating and an 86.4 PFF passing grade. In all his other games, his passer rating falls to 89.8, and his passing grade is just 64.7.
For whatever reason, Fajardo has played his best games against Hamilton. Will that be the case again this week? If Hamilton can’t find a way to bring Fajardo down, Montreal will be booking their trip to the East Division Finals.
CALGARY STAMPEDERS VS. BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS
This is a rare matchup between two teams with opposite records, with the 12-6 Lions heavy favorites over the 6-12 Stampeders.
But when these teams played two weeks ago, the Stampeders hammered them 41-16. Was that just a case of BC resting players and not caring much about the result? Or did Calgary finally find a way to break through against a team they had lost to twice beforehand?
This game will answer those questions. The Lions will be led by QB Vernon Adams (91.5), the second-highest-graded player in the league this season. The Stampeders will look to control the clock with the two-headed running back duo of Dedrick Mills (93.1 rushing grade) and Ka’Deem Carey (85.7). The two have combined for over 1,000 yards rushing, 58 missed tackles forced and 39 explosive runs of 10 or more yards.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR KEON HATCHER, BRITISH COLUMBIA VS. HB KOBE WILLIAMS, CALGARY
Hatcher missed the first game against Calgary and sat out the third. But in the second game, he racked up nine catches for 170 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.47 yards per route run.
Hatcher is the second-highest-graded receiver in the CFL this year at 79.6, and his 2.22 yards per route run ranked third. He’s a tough matchup for any halfback, but Williams has been one of the best this season, as he’s allowed just one touchdown all year and has a forced incompletion rate of 14.5%.
If he can get some revenge and shut down Hatcher, Calgary will have a much better chance of emerging victorious.
CALGARY PLAYER TO WATCH: WR REGGIE BEGELTON
Calgary’s passing offense hasn’t been much to write home about this season, but the one bright spot has been the play of Begelton. The slot receiver has the fourth-highest receiving grade in the CFL at 78.1. His 18 forced missed tackles after the catch rank fourth, and his 2.11 yards per route run ranks sixth.
When targeting Begelton, Calgary QB Jake Maier has posted a 110.2 passer rating. When looking elsewhere, that rating falls to just 78.5. That’s a staggering difference, and if Calgary is to pull off this massive upset, they’ll need a huge game from Begelton.
BRITISH COLUMBIA PLAYER TO WATCH: EDGE MATHIEU BETTS
The favorite for the Most Outstanding Defensive Player award, Betts has been a wrecking ball all season long. His 90.2 pass-rush grade is the best in the league. His 91 total pressures are 18 more than second place. His 19.9% win rate is more than two percentage points higher than second best.
Simply put, Betts is the best pass-rusher in the CFL by a large margin. Betts has 18 pressures and a win rate of 27.0% in the three games against Calgary, so it’s clear they haven’t had an answer for him at any point this season. He is capable of single-handedly wrecking a game, and he could easily lift BC to the West Division Finals with a big game.
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