• Will Levis stands out because of his ADP and situation: Levis is one of the few young quarterbacks who is assured a Week 1 starting job and falls outside of the top 120 in ADP.
• A former top-10 fantasy quarterback returns: Daniel Jones missed a lot of the 2024 season due to injury, but he was a top-10 fantasy QB in 2022 and has a better group of wide receivers to throw to this season.
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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
These three fantasy football sleepers have an ADP outside of 120 by consensus boards, but I have ranked them notably higher.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, July 11
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 14.03; from consensus ADP)
Levis took over as the Titans' starting quarterback in Week 8 last season. He missed all but 13 snaps over the last three weeks of the season, but he was the QB16 from Week 8 to Week 15. The Titans ran the ball at a top-10 rate over that eight-week stretch.
This season, one big change for Levis is that Brian Callahan will be his new head coach. Callahan spent the last five seasons as the Cincinnati Bengals‘ offensive coordinator, where the team ranked in the top five in pass rate. So, Levis’ fantasy value should increase this year simply from throwing more passes.
The Titans signal-caller also has significant upgrades at wide receiver. DeAndre Hopkins was his favorite target last year, but outside of Hopkins, he dealt with a rotation of Nick-Westbrook Ikhine, Chris Moore, Treylon Burks and Kyle Philips. All four of those pass-catchers are expected to be fourth on the depth chart, at best, this season.
This offseason, Calvin Ridley was signed to a massive contract to play opposite Hopkins, while Tyler Boyd followed Callahan from Cincinnati to play in the slot.
It’s worth noting that it’s harder to find a sleeper quarterback this year than in past years. Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams already have ADPs within the top 120, along with 15 other quarterbacks. Of the first 10 quarterbacks who qualify for the sleeper tag for this article, eight are 29 or older with limited to no rushing upside. Levis is projected to run the most out of that group of quarterbacks.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants (ADP: 16.03)
Jones finished as the QB9 in 2022, in large part thanks to his rushing ability. His 708 rushing yards ranked fifth at the position, while his seven rushing touchdowns tied for third.
He recorded a below-average big-time throw rate and an above-average turnover-worthy throw rate, but his volume in the running and passing game was enough to vault him into the top 10. Jones did not get off to a strong start in 2023 before dealing with injuries that decimated the rest of his season.
There is reason to believe Jones could match his 2022 fantasy production this season. The wide receivers he'll have at his disposal are much better than they were at the start of last year.
Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell and Isaiah Hodgins were the three primary wide receivers when Jones was healthy last season. This year, Jones has Malik Nabers as his new lead wide receiver. Wan’Dale Robinson is healthy and should be his second-best option. Jalin Hyatt hadn’t earned much playing time while Jones was healthy last year, but he should also be part of the mix.
The Giants also generally ran the ball more than most teams when they had a lead, and they also ran more than most when playing from behind. That was in large part because they had Saquon Barkley. Now, Devin Singletary is at running back.
This season, it’s clear the Giants will put things in Jones' hands to determine if he can be the future at the position.
This means the former first-round pick should have more opportunities and better efficiency. The big concern is that a neck injury kept him out early last season, but a torn ACL kept him out for the rest of the campaign. The ACL tear may prevent Jones from running nearly as much as he had in past seasons, which could hurt his fantasy value more than the new receivers help him.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots (ADP: 20.04)
Last season, in both redraft and rookie drafts, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson had notably higher ADPs than C.J. Stroud. This was because Young was the first overall pick in what we thought was a better situation, while Richardson had the rushing upside.
Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels have relatively high ADPs this year, while Drake Maye is significantly lower.
While it makes sense to pick Williams and Daniels as early as they are going, there is at least a chance Maye has the best season of the three — similar to how Stroud did last season. Maye was QB3 on our big board, with our draft guide concluding that Maye “has all the talent tools you want to bet on as a franchise QB.”
A lot of Maye's ADP concerns revolve around his landing spot with the New England Patriots, but the team has undergone a lot of change, which could lead to the offense playing much better.
Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator. The former quarterback was last offensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns, where Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco all managed passing grades in the 70s. Before working for the Browns, he was a quarterback coach for players such as Aaron Rodgers and Andy Dalton.
The Patriots had several wide receivers rotating in and out last year, but Demario Douglas stood out among the group with a 74.4 PFF grade. Everyone else on the roster is expected to be a backup or off the roster, as the team drafted Ja’Lynn Polk and signed free agent K.J. Osborn, and both are projected to start. The team also added Austin Hooper at tight end and Antonio Gibson at running back, and both are strong receivers.
There is a strong chance Jacoby Brissett will start the season, but we can expect Maye to become the starter sooner rather than later. No one is picking a sleeper quarterback because they expect him to start. Sleeper quarterbacks are players who could potentially be fantasy starters over the second half of the season.
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