Fantasy Football: Breakout candidates at tight end for 2024

• Dalton Kincaid has the potential to greatly surpass his strong rookie season: Based on his college profile and the team losing their top target-earner from 2023, Kincaid is poised to deliver in a big way in Year 2.

• Jelani Woods‘ return could be huge for the Indianapolis Colts in 2024: Along with getting their QB1 back, Woods offers a dynamic skillset to separate himself from the rest of the Colts tight ends this season.

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Estimated reading time: 12 minutes

Each season, players take their game to new levels and significantly improve their fantasy production along the way. The tight end position can often be frustrating for fantasy football purposes, but patience and knowing what to look for can go a long way in finding the next great asset when building out your roster.

A few qualifiers before diving into this year’s candidates

• A significant jump in overall fantasy finish or fantasy points per game is expected, not just an incremental improvement.
• We’re looking for around 150 PPR fantasy points/9.5 PPR points per game in 2024.
• No rookies. Let’s make things more challenging than that. A list of rookies that will make a fantasy impact in Year 1 can be found here.

Here are 10 examples of players over the past five years who fit the above criteria before delivering their breakout season:

It’s important to note that many of the breakout tight ends come out of nowhere when compared to their previous season’s fantasy production. So, for fantasy managers who believe in the opportunity in 2024, don’t be afraid to take a shot on the position just because they’re unproven as a fantasy commodity.

The only tight end to crack even 50 targets prior to their breakout season was T.J. Hockenson (56). For breakout tight ends that aren’t able to deliver at least 600 receiving yards, then they need to score at least in the range of seven touchdowns for a significant breakout. 

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

The expectation for Kincaid’s breakout is significantly higher than any other tight end. His 90 targets in 2023 were the most of any of the previous examples. Since 2006, only four rookie tight ends have exceeded 80 targets in a season. Two of them were last year with Kincaid and Sam LaPorta (118). The other two were Evan Engram (108) in 2017 and Kyle Pitts (107) in 2021. Both Engram and LaPorta’s target pace the following year dipped, but that came with the addition of high-end wide receivers that weren’t on the offense the year prior, with a healthy Odell Beckham for Engram in 2018, and Drake London being drafted for Pitts in 2022. Kincaid is the opposite of that as he loses a high-end wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, who commanded 159 targets in 2023.

Kincaid already delivered in a big way as a rookie and now, we’re betting on the significant improvement/breakout that is represented in his current TE4 ADP. Doing so would allow for much more than his 9.1 PPR points per game from last season and put him firmly on the map as a weekly top-five fantasy tight end. 

Become the Bills' top receiving option

Outside of delivering a significant amount of touchdowns, for which he’ll have competition in those high-scoring areas of the field between Josh Allen and Dawson Knox, Kincaid should aim to become the Bills top target-earner to greatly exceed his already strong production as a rookie. 

With Diggs gone, and no true alpha wide receiver brought in to replace him, there are a lot of targets and production up for grabs in this Josh Allen-led offense. Kincaid makes the most sense as the next man up with Keon Coleman having long-term potential, but he doesn’t project to hit the ground running in Year 1, and Khalil Shakir — a potential wide receiver breakout — also has his share of competition among similar options at the position. Kincaid has the talent to be the top receiver on the team, and while his 19.6% target rate as a rookie ranked outside the top-10 qualifying tight ends last year, it also means that there is still some unlocked potential for a high-end tight prospect, which leads into the next point…

Showcase his first-round talent

Kincaid’s 90 targets were still impressive considering he shared time with fellow tight end, Dawson Knox, and had Diggs on the roster. But as impressive as those targets were, there’s potentially even more in store. His yards per route run (1.46) ranked tied for just 14th while his receiving grade ranked tied for 18th (68.7). 

Diving into Kincaid’s college profile, there’s certainly more potential with his game, hence why he was a first-round pick in the first place. His 93.0 career receiving grade ranked among the 95th percentile of prospects since 2018 while his 2.32 career yards per route run was among the 90th percentile. 

The average receiving grade for first-round tight ends (min. 100 snaps) since 2006 is 66., while the average yards per route run is 1.45 – both numbers that Kincaid exceeded as a rookie. There is an expected jump in Year 2, where those averages rise to a 71.2 receiving grade and 1.52 yards per route run – numbers that Kincaid has the potential to outperform again for his breakout season.

Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers

Musgrave was in and out of the lineup as a rookie due to injuries, but when he was on the field, he was able to showcase the fantasy potential that we’ll be looking to come to fruition in 2024. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Musgrave was the Packers' clear top tight end to the point where Tucker Kraft – his closest competition this year – never cracked 20 routes run in a single week while Musgrave was in the lineup.

Musgrave earned 44 targets during those first 11 weeks of the season, which was the third-most on the team. After he returned from injury in Week 18, he was eased back into action, running just six total routes (and still earning a target). In the two playoff games for the Packers, Musgrave was still being eased into a larger workload, but in those two games despite running a total of just 21 routes, he managed seven targets, six receptions, 66 yards and a touchdown for a 91.9 receiving grade, highlighting just how effective he can be when utilized in this offense.

Retake the clear TE1 role back from Tucker Kraft

Kraft tore his pectoral muscle this offseason, which required surgery, so he currently has no set timetable for a return. In the meantime, Musgrave is able to re-develop his rapport with Jordan Love and work as the clear top tight end in this Packers offense. Musgrave was not only drafted ahead of Kraft in 2023, but he performed slightly better and was more of a weapon than Kraft in their rookie season.

Musgrave outperformed Kraft in yards per route run, target rate, catchable completion rate, and for those higher value fantasy targets, he outperformed him in average depth of target and deep target rate. Even with Kraft still working as the top tight end in the playoffs while Musgrave worked his way back into the lineup, Kraft managed just nine targets, 24 receiving yards and a 52.1 receiving grade, which wasn’t nearly as effective as Musgrave’s numbers highlighted above despite double the snaps. If Kraft continues to take time healing from his surgery and should Musgrave continue to integrate himself as a crucial part of the offense this offseason, then there’s no doubt he’ll be the Packers TE1 in 2024.

Overcome the rest of Green Bay’s target competition

Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs aren’t individually worrisome target competition for Musgrave, but if all are healthy, they pose a bigger challenge as a whole for him to carve out a spot as Love's second or third-best receiving option. For Musgrave, his ability to be a deep target and in the middle of the field will be crucial if he wants to become an irreplaceable piece of the passing game, taking advantage of potential mismatches from his in-line alignment as the rest of the defense is honed in on the many capable wide receiver options.

One of Musgrave’s calling cards coming out of Oregon State was his ability to act as a downfield threat, leading his rookie class in average depth of target (12.8) over its final two college seasons. This translated to some of his usage and effectiveness in Green Bay as a rookie, earning a 15.6% deep target rate — the second-highest mark among 17 qualifying rookie tight ends since 2020. He came down with 100% of catchable passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield and delivered 126 receiving yards on such throws – the third most among the same qualifying rookie tight ends. Musgrave’s unique ability as a downfield tight end threat is just one of the ways that he can separate himself as a non-replaceable piece of the Packers offense in 2024.

Jelani Woods, Indianapolis Colts

Woods missed the entire 2023 season due to hamstring injuries that kept him from getting back in the lineup after a relatively strong rookie year in 2022. Woods led the Colts' tight end room that year in receiving yards (312) and receiving grade (68.0), and he even led the entire team in yards per route run (1.51). The elite athlete out of Virginia showcased a lot of potential as a rookie, and being back fully healthy in 2024, he has the opportunity to bring a whole new dynamic that was missing from the Colts offense last season.

After highlighting several tight ends who seemingly came out of nowhere in fantasy production before delivering their breakout seasons earlier, Woods is a personal favorite to be this year’s version of that breakout tight end. He wasn’t a full-time player when last we saw him (2022), delivering just 5.0 PPR points per game and 74.2 total fantasy points for the year, but he has significant upside to bet on for that to greatly increase this season

Become the clear TE1 option in Indianapolis

Woods’ encouraging rookie season in 2022 came with shared time at tight end with Kylen Granson, who is still on the team. Granson led Indianapolis’ tight ends in routes run in 2022 and 2023 — though he did it without really providing Woods' encouraging potential. Granson has managed just a 62.1 career receiving grade and just 1.26 yards per route run — both lower than Woods’ lone rookie year – doing so on 615 routes run, nearly triple the opportunity that Woods has had.

It seemed like, outside of having Anthony Richardson for an entire season, the one part of Indianapolis’ offense that was sorely lacking in 2023 was having a dynamic tight end who could stretch the field and dominate in the red zone, which is exactly what Woods should bring. Indianapolis deployed its tight ends almost by committee in 2023 because of the lack of a top option, giving Woods an opportunity to prove he is unique amongst that group. His 10.7-yard average depth of target was a top-five mark since 2018 for rookie tight ends, and at 6-foot-7 with the best relative athletic score (RAS) for a tight end ever (10.0), he is that missing piece that can take Shane Steichen’s offense to another level in 2024.

Become a go-to option in the red zone

Woods’ massive frame provides him a significant advantage over most coverage defenders and can pay dividends in those tight areas of the field like the red zone and end zone. The 2022 Colts were clearly aware of this potential as well, targeting Woods on 19.4% of his routes in the red zone – which was second-highest on the team, just behind Michael Pittman (20.3%).

Over the past two seasons for Indianapolis, that 19.4% target rate in the red zone is the best mark for their tight ends, as is Woods’ 70.7 receiving grade, 0.94 yards per route run and 9.6% first down-touchdown rate in that area of the field. Accomplishing this as a rookie provides more encouragement that another year of growth will make him an even more dangerous weapon in those high-value scoring areas of the field, giving him a big leg up in his fantasy potential as well.