5 Lessons for NFL Player Prop Betting During the 2024-25 Season

Though I emerged from the 2023-24 NFL season up roughly 20 units, it certainly wasn't an easy road, and I wish someone had warned me of a few things that caused me plenty of stress - and cost some money - throughout the year.

Betting on football is so much fun, they said. You don't know what you're missing, they said.

Apparently, what I was missing was the additional grey hairs that betting on football made sure to provide me with. Sure, I made some money, but at what cost?

From having way too many bets to count (or sometimes even remember) to essentially ruining the NFL playoffs for myself, it was a rocky road to "success."

So, I'm reflecting on some of the lessons I learned from last season and sharing them with you, so you don't make the same mistakes when heading to the best NFL betting sites during the 2024-25 campaign.

Beware of the first few weeks

If you play fantasy football, you know the first few weeks of the NFL season are pure chaos. Injuries early in games not only tank your fantasy matchups, but they can destroy your player prop bets, too.

Additionally, there are always a few players who just simply don't have the role everyone in the industry anticipated. Whether it's that 1B running back who ends up with a 5% snap share instead of 45% in Week 1, or the talented young wide receiver who runs 15 routes and gets one target, expect the unexpected.

And it's due to that "randomness" (for lack of a better word) that even the projection models will often be very off during those first few weeks of the season. An algorithm can work off only the information it's provided, and if that information is incorrect, the projections aren't going to be especially accurate.

There are also contract holdouts that run right up to - or even past - the beginning of the season.

As our C Jackson Cowart outlined when discussing how to bet on the San Francisco 49ers amid multiple contract holdouts, that often applies to futures markets. However, it can play a role in weekly player props, too. Using the 49ers as an example, does anyone know who their true No. 2 wide receiver would be if Aiyuk sits out or is traded? (I suppose you can always just bet on Christian McCaffrey.)

Also, a bit of buyer beware. Make sure you treat those early season odds boosts at our best sports betting sites the same you would any bet, and don't blindly throw money at them. 

Know your limits

This doesn't necessarily apply only to monetary limits, though that's probably the most important. I exceeded my limits at times last year despite still profiting on a weekly basis.

My problem was that I stretched myself too thin mentally. When you have 30-plus player props down at a handful of best sports betting apps - to go along with your fantasy team(s), survivor pools, and other competitions - you tend to get exhausted in a hurry.

You don't go to the gym and immediately try to squat 405 lbs (in general, leave that for Rob Paul). So why are you laying down 50 units in Week 1? Start slow - or warm up, for the sake of the analogy - so you can work your way up to your "max."

Use those early games to set some parameters and discover your limits, both monetary and mental.

This also applies to finding which markets you prefer betting on, as I outlined my favorite ones when I shared how you can use fantasy football to become a more successful NFL bettor. I found last year that I preferred volume-based player props vs. yardage-based ones.

One second, your rushing yards Under looks great because Arthur Smith keeps giving the ball to Tyler Allgeier, and the next thing you know, Bijan Robinson is doing Bijan Robinson things.

Tail people you trust

There seems to be a stigma in the betting community when it comes to tailing others. It's almost like this dirty secret, something that makes you less than the next bettor.

Here's a tip within a tip: the only thing that matters when it comes to betting is making money. It doesn't matter how you get there, or who gets you there.

So, my suggestion would be to find people with strong resumes, who are backed by reputable brands, and who are willing to give out the majority of their picks for free. Don't just pay for the Discord of every guy who pins that nine-leg parlay he hit to the top of his X.

Also, when you find those people you trust, share them with your friends (the same goes for telling them which are the best sportsbooks)!

When people talk about the "fun" side of betting, they're usually referencing silly bets that they deem fun because they didn't have to think about them. The actual fun side of betting is making money with your friends and celebrating it together.

Wait until later in the week

Most bettors who are accustomed to betting on sports played daily - such as MLB, the NBA, or the NHL - are used to trying to bet as early as humanly possible.

Though that's the best strategy for some NFL markets, I found that the additional information you gain by waiting for player props is more valuable than the yard or two you missed out on. Also, that same line might be available at one of the other sites with the best sportsbook promos.

Overall, NFL player prop markets are fairly inefficient and driven early in the week by public action, which can help "sharp" bettors who rely on projections or tail industry experts. 

Additionally, it's more convenient for those who work the traditional Monday to Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., which isn't always the case when it comes to prop betting.

You can place your bets on Friday evening or Saturday morning, and you might get an even better number than those who did when the markets opened earlier in the week.

Just enjoy the playoffs

Finally, perhaps the biggest lesson I learned last season was to just enjoy watching football again when the playoffs roll around. I feel this way for two reasons:

• I was exhausted by the time the NFL postseason arrived due to the many aforementioned betting and other competitive obligations
• "Playoff motivation" creates unpredictable results, whether you were trying to use projections or your own knowledge, and a lack of predictability will lead to more losses

Playoff football is arguably the best time of the entire season, and there's a good chance you'll ruin it for yourself by worrying about some random tight end going Over 1.5 receptions late in the fourth quarter with the game on the line.

Rather than bet throughout the playoffs (or even Week 18, for that matter), stop after Week 17 and save your energy for the Super Bowl. Then, have one final hurrah with all the moneyline, spread, total, player props, and novelty bets your heart can handle. 

Here are our best Super Bowl betting sites:

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• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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