How to Bet 49ers Amid Contract Disputes With Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams
Less than six months after their second Super Bowl appearance in five years, the San Francisco 49ers have a serious math problem. And they're running out of time to solve it.
The 49ers own the shortest Super Bowl odds of any NFC team across our best sports betting sites, and quarterback Brock Purdy is among the NFL MVP odds favorites after a sensational sophomore campaign. He's almost certain to receive a record-setting contract when he's eligible after the 2024 NFL season.
That has complicated matters for star tackle Trent Williams and receiver Brandon Aiyuk, neither of whom are practicing with the 49ers as they seek new contracts. Williams has held out of the first week of training camp, while Aiyuk is "holding in" after demanding a trade earlier this month.
There's no guarantee that either reports to the team ahead of its Sept. 9 opener against the New York Jets, even as our best NFL betting sites turn a blind eye to the trouble brewing in the Bay Area.
Aiyuk, Williams holdouts are bad news for 49ers
Money talks in the NFL, where careers are short and athletic primes are even shorter. And the 49ers have been relatively mum on their efforts to come to terms with two of the best players in the entire league.
Aiyuk has been loud about his financial frustrations (at least through the media) dating back to the week after the Super Bowl. The 26-year-old speedster has called out the team for its unwillingness to meet his contract demands, which are rumored to be around $30 million per year, amid a busy offseason for new receiver deals.
He's certainly earned the right to ask for that after ranking seventh in the NFL in receiving yards (1,342), third in success rate (70.5%), and second in yards per target (12.8) a year ago. He was PFF's second-ranked receiver and was the only 49ers player with 100-plus targets last season as Purdy's go-to option.
Unlike the CeeDee Lamb holdout, which could spell betting value on the Dallas Cowboys receiver, it doesn't look like these two sides are very close to a deal as the 49ers continue to field trade offers for the All-Pro wideout.
Williams' absence is even more concerning for the 49ers three years after they signed him to the largest deal for an offensive lineman in NFL history.
The 36-year-old tackle is coming off his third consecutive first-team All-Pro season, and he led all tackles in pass-block win rate (95.8%) last year. He's set to make $20.05 million this year - a relative bargain compared to the current market - with zero guaranteed money left on a deal that extends through 2026.
San Francisco simply can't afford to lose Williams, who is the lynchpin for the team's elite rushing attack. And he's even more vital to the team's record-setting passing offense than his teammate Aiyuk.
When Williams played at least 50% of his team's snaps in last year's regular season, the 49ers went 12-1 while Purdy threw for 28 touchdowns to just two interceptions. In four contests without a healthy Williams, Purdy threw three TDs and nine INTs; the Niners lost all four games.
49ers preseason betting odds 2024
Even with the concern surrounding Aiyuk and Williams entering the 2024 NFL season, our best sports betting apps still have the 49ers trading as the clear favorite to win the NFC and face off against the title favorite Kansas City Chiefs in a Super Bowl rematch.
| Market | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl | +600 | +600 | +600 | +625 | +550 |
| NFC Championship | +250 | +300 | +280 | +265 | +240 |
| NFC West | -195 | -190 | -200 | -225 | -210 |
| Win total | O/U 11.5 (Under -125) | O/U 11.5 (Under -132) | O/U 11.5 (Under -125) | O/U 11 (Over -130) | O/U 11.5 (Under -140) |
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How to bet 49ers ahead of 2024 NFL season
If you're looking to "buy the dip" on the 49ers amid these contract sagas, you'll have to wait until the regular season starts. They continue to trade as the top option in the NFC and are even co-favorites at some of our best Super Bowl betting sites.
If you're looking to fade the NFC champions? You're in luck. And there are a few interesting ways to do so.
Best bets to fade 49ers in 2024
The easiest route is to target the 49ers' win total, which is dealing at a near-consensus 11.5 across our best sportsbooks, though the Under is juiced anywhere from -125 to -140. The Niners won 12 games last year with 13 wins the year before, but they've fallen short of this mark in four of seven seasons under Kyle Shanahan.
My favorite way to fade San Francisco is in the divisional market, where the Los Angeles Rams (+360 via Caesars) and Seattle Seahawks (+750 via BetMGM) are catching attractive prices to win the NFC West.
I'm awfully compelled by the Rams - the last NFC team to win it all - after what they did last season amid injuries and what they could do in Matthew Stafford's potential swan song. Seattle could also be a surprise contender with a sneaky talented roster under new head coach Mike Macdonald, who is one of the league's brightest football minds.
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Will the 49ers win the Super Bowl?
Ultimately, with the 49ers carrying so much equity in the futures market - their +600 odds carry a 14.29% implied probability per our odds converter - the best way to fade them might just be to bet on anyone else to win the Super Bowl.
I broke down my favorite Super Bowl predictions last week, which include the two-time reigning champion Chiefs and the ever-dangerous Cincinnati Bengals, who are primed to reach new heights in 2024. I also think the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons are intriguing bets in what I consider to be a wide-open NFC.
MORE: Why CeeDee Lamb's Contract Holdout Could Spell Betting Value on Cowboys Receiver
Of course, that doesn't mean the Niners can't or won't win at all. At full strength, this team boasts arguably the best roster in the NFL, with an ascending quarterback and elite coach who nearly hoisted the Lombardi Trophy last year.
Yet with so much uncertainty surrounding this year's roster, as well as a deep field of contenders in both conferences, I won't be among those laying the short odds on the 49ers before the season kicks off in September. The math doesn't add up.
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