The Brewers won their fifth straight game yesterday, and I think they keep rolling today. Milwaukee is 19-11 in its last 30 and a remarkable 26-12 at home this year, while the Cubs are 11-19 in their last 30 and 16-27 on the road. The Cubs do benefit from sending a lefty to the mound today as the Brewers hit better against righties, but Milwaukee starter Tobias Myers has been no slouch, giving up one run at most in six of his seven starts since getting rocked by Chicago in Wrigley in early May and earning the win in his last four outings. I think the perceived pitching mismatch is doing too much work in setting these odds.

The Mets are 16-4 in their last 20 games and their offense has been on fire, posting a 144 OPS+ in the last 28 days with an 18.8 K% in that stretch. Framber Valdez has had three starts with at least five earned runs allowed this season, but even if he can avoid a meltdown, he only has six Ks in four of his 14 starts this year. Furthermore, only six of 22 lefties have delivered six Ks against the Mets all year. The odds for this prop should be at least -150 in my opinion.

Sonny Gray has delivered three strong starts after a shaky beginning to June, and now he's up against a Reds team that has struck out at the eighth highest rate per game. Gray has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league with 11.1 per nine, getting to eight Ks in half his starts. With 23 of the 56 true righty starters to face Cincinnati getting to seven Ks, I have to think an elite strikeout pitcher is going to get it done today.

The White Sox touched up Dakota Hudson for five earned runs yesterday, but that type of performance is uncommon. Just 10 righty starters have given up more than 3.5 earned runs against Chicago all season. Cal Quantrill has allowed more than two earned runs in just one of his last seven road starts and that came against the Dodgers. I'm not breaking any news when I tell you the White Sox offense is not the Dodgers. Chicago owns just a 76 OPS+ against righties and a 73 OPS+ at home, and with Quantrill posting a 3.06 ERA away from Coors, I believe his line is a run too high.

The Guardians eye a sweep on Sunday, and I'm surprised they're not more favored. They've won four straight, scoring at least five runs in six straight. The Blue Jays have lost five straight and scored no more than three runs in any of those losses. Cleveland is a remarkable 37-17 in games decided by more than one run, 25-9 in home games and 14-5 in games against lefty starters. Yusei Kikuchi has pitched better in this matchup but also has three starts in his last five where he's allowed five earned runs, and he's not the ace-level starter who should swing the odds this much based on how well Cleveland has played.

Cristopher Sanchez just inked an extension, but there are better reasons to fade him: prime hitting conditions in Philadelphia that could counteract the face he's pitched very well at home, and a matchup against a D-Backs offense than owns a 120 OPS+ against lefties and a 128 OPS+ over the last two weeks. Only one of six lefties starters to face Arizona in June has gotten to six innings, and just six of the 26 they've faced all year have gotten to six innings, with only four others pitching into the sixth. With the 'pen well-rested, the emphasis should be on getting a righty reliever in as soon as practical.

Corbin Burnes has thrown at least six innings in 10 straight starts but has reached seven Ks just twice in that stretch (and three times in 15 starts overall). His K/9 rate is in decline for a fourth straight year despite his fantastic overall numbers, and considering the matchup, this line is treating him more like the pitcher from 2021-22 than today. Grayson Rodriguez struck out eight Astros yesterday, but that was just the seventh time in 53 starts a righty has gotten to seven Ks against Houston, which has the second-lowest strikeout per game rate in MLB. This seems likely to be a 4-6 K day from Burnes.

Royce Lewis has been on fire since returning from IL in early June, and he's picked it up even more of late, homering in six of his last eight games (and recording a two-hit game in one of the others). JP Sears has posted a 122 OPS+ against righties, and Lewis himself went 2 for 3 with a homer against him six days ago. The market should be giving Lewis more credit for how hot he's been in this prop and make Over 1.5 favored.

Jon Gray is coming off his worst start of the season, and he was supposed to have a few extra days off but will now throw on normal rest with Max Scherzer not quite ready. He hasn't exceeded 65 pitches in three starts since returning from IL, and I'm surprised he's such a favorite to get to five Ks against one of the toughest teams to strike out in the league, even if they've had a rough few days. Only 22 of 62 righty non-opening starters have gotten there against KC, and Gray himself has gotten there in just five of 14 starts despite a solid K rate. This feels like it should be closer to an even split in odds.

The weather is expected to be ripe for offensive production at Wrigley Field, and I think that's not being factored enough into this line. Jameson Taillon is fortunate to have a 3.08 ERA, and one area where he's had a lot of luck is his HR/FB rate, which is well below his career mark. He's allowing just one homer per nine despite putting more balls into play than ever (6.3 K/9). The wind blowing out could have a monstrous effect on Taillon as he's allowed 44 flyballs in his last three starts versus just 12 grounders. Even though Chicago needed more than 100 pitches from the 'pen yesterday, they used just three relievers, so I don't see it as a factor with Thursday's off-day.

Kenta Maeda's first start of the season was a sign of things to come, giving up six earned runs in just 3.1 innings against what would turn out to be the worst offense in the league, the White Sox. It was the shortest outing not due to injury or opener a righty has had against Chicago this year, but Maeda has only gone past five innings once in his last nine starts as well. It feels like most pitchers should be able to get into the sixth against the ChiSox, yet only 37 of 58 righties have done so, and when the pitcher in question has been unable to pitch deep into games all year, I like fading it happening.

Dane Dunning has failed to pitch longer than 5.1 innings in nine straight starts, but the matchup and his solid 9.8 K/9 rate give him a good chance of getting to six Ks today. Two-thirds of righty starters have made it there against the Mariners this year, including Dunning himself recording seven strikeouts in just 4.1 innings back in April. The biggest concern would be Dunning getting chased early by a bad outing, but the Mariners' below-average offense (which is even worse at home) makes that less likely to happen.

Drew Thorpe is coming off a solid MLB debut where he allowed one earned run in five innings. The White Sox weren't playing it safe with his workload either, as he threw 98 pitches in that start. Throw out one May outing where he faced just seven batters and that Tuesday debut was his first time throwing less than 5.2 innings since his season debut. The D-Backs aren't particularly hard to throw more than five innings against, with half the righty starters they've faced having done it, so I like Thorpe's chances of reverting to form with another full workload today.

Kenta Maeda has struggled to pitch deep into games, getting past five innings in just three of 11 starts. That makes it unlikely he's going to get to five Ks against the team with the lowest strikeout rate per game in MLB. The Astros also have an elite 123 OPS+ at home, increasing the chances Maeda is chased from the game early, and he's allowed five-plus runs while not completing five innings four times. Maeda also dealt with abdominal discomfort 11 days ago that ended a start after two pitches, and a recurrence would make it even harder to pile up Ks before exiting.