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    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays

    Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three MLB seasons, Matt is up $2,395 for $100 bettors. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452. And over the past four college basketball seasons, Matt is up $887. He went 103-89-2 (plus $665) in the 2023 college football season and 121-93-2 (plus $589) in the 2023 NFL season. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact [email protected].

    @jordanpaytonsn1
    LAST 434 MLB PICKS
    +2371
    RECORD: 269-163-2
    # 2 MLB EXPERT
    +2371
    269-163-2 IN LAST 434 MLB PICKS

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    Matt's Picks (2 Live)

    Jul 01 2024, 7:07 pm UTC
    League
    Houston
    @ Toronto
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit0.5
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +850.5
    23-8 in Last 31 HOU ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    It's Canada Day in Toronto as the Jays host the Astros. ...

    Pick Made: 4:22 am UTC
    Jul 02 2024, 12:40 am UTC
    League
    Milwaukee
    @ Colorado
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit0.5
    +1268.5
    69-27 in Last 96 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    How will William Contreras rare vs. the Rockies? ...

    Pick Made: 5:03 am UTC

    Matt's Past Picks

    Jun 30 2024, 11:10 pm UTC
    League
    Texas
    11
    @ Baltimore
    2
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +1023
    108-68 in Last 176 MLB ML Picks
    +1809.75
    55-25 in Last 80 BAL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    I am definitely losing faith in Orioles pitcher Cole Irvin and this might get rained out but no Corey Seager in the Texas lineup. The Rangers are 4-7 without him this year. A fair amount of Baltimore hitters have good splits off Texas starter Andrew Heaney (2-9, 4.17 ERA).

    Pick Made: Sun 8:31 pm UTC
    Jun 30 2024, 8:10 pm UTC
    League
    Oakland
    1
    @ Arizona
    5
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +1023
    108-68 in Last 176 MLB ML Picks
    +1178.5
    18-2 in Last 20 OAK ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Simply a game the Snakes have to have to win this series -- need to take baby steps like that to turn the season around. After six strong from Zac Gallen on Saturday, the bullpen is in good shape behind today's starter Brandon Pfaadt if need be. The A's have never seen him. Pfaadt has been much better at home. Oakland's Luis Medina has a 5.63 ERA on the season.

    Pick Made: Sun 6:14 pm UTC
    Jun 30 2024, 8:07 pm UTC
    League
    Detroit
    7
    @ L.A. Angels
    6
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +865
    36-18-2 in Last 56 MLB O/U Picks
    +360
    10-6 in Last 16 DET O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    I generally try to play Under Tigers games where I can but only like this at 9 (Bet365) rather than 8.5 as most books have. Detroit righty and former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize seems to be settling in with six straight starts allowing three earned or fewer. One of the Tigers' better hitters, Matt Vierling, is out of the lineup. LA's Tyler Anderson leads MLB pitchers with 4.0 bWAR, ranks ranks sixth in the AL with a 2.63 ERA and is seventh with a .209 opponents batting average. Over his last eight starts, Anderson has pitched to a 2.34 ERA and has allowed exactly one run in six of the eight.

    Pick Made: Sun 6:28 pm UTC
    Jun 30 2024, 6:10 pm UTC
    League
    Cleveland
    2
    @ Kansas City
    6
    +1268.5
    69-27 in Last 96 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Kansa City's Maikel Garcia was 0-for-4 vs. Cleveland on Saturday to drop his season average to .232 and June average to .147. So this is an awfully cheap number even if Garcia is 3-for-8 career off Cleveland's Logan Allen.

    Pick Made: Sun 3:13 pm UTC
    Jun 30 2024, 5:37 pm UTC
    League
    N.Y. Yankees
    8
    @ Toronto
    1
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +678
    13-6 in Last 19 TOR ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees but he hasn't quite looked in form yet, and Juan Soto is out of the lineup again for New York. Have to hope the good Kevin Gausman shows for the Jays. He has been wildly inconsistent but has good career numbers vs. the Yankees. Soto hits him well. So does Aaron Judge, but now he can be pitched around a bit easier.

    Pick Made: Sun 4:13 pm UTC
    Jun 30 2024, 5:35 pm UTC
    League
    Miami
    6
    @ Philadelphia
    7
    +1268.5
    69-27 in Last 96 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Apologies -- accidentally had Over 3.5 earned runs originally on this play. I'll never play that most likely. The winds are blowing out some at CBP in Philadelphia but that Phillies lineup just isn't the same against a righty pitcher like Miami's Yonny Chirinos without Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Chrinos has been solid in two starts thus far and is basically only a five-inning pitcher so that should help our cause here. The SL Model has Chirinos allowing 2.8 ER.

    Pick Made: Sun 4:07 pm UTC
    Jun 30 2024, 2:10 am UTC
    League
    Minnesota
    5
    @ Seattle
    1
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +1639.5
    40-19 in Last 59 MIN ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Have to play this simply as I believe the wrong team is favored with Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez holding a 5.09 road ERA. The M's have been dominant at home, and Bryce Miller has a 1.82 ERA at T-Mobile Park.

    Pick Made: Jun 29, 5:17 pm UTC
    Jun 29 2024, 8:10 pm UTC
    League
    Chi. Cubs
    5
    @ Milwaukee
    3
    +1268.5
    69-27 in Last 96 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Feel like the outs gods owe me after San Diego's Randy Vasquez on Friday. He was all but a lock to go Over his total before taking a comebacker to the hand. What can you do? Milwaukee's Tobias Myers had gone at least six in three straight until being pulled after 78 pitches last time out. As far as I know, he's healthy but there's a reason the books post these numbers.

    Pick Made: Jun 29, 5:28 am UTC
    Jun 29 2024, 8:10 pm UTC
    League
    Oakland
    0
    @ Arizona
    3
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +1023
    108-68 in Last 176 MLB ML Picks
    +1178.5
    18-2 in Last 20 OAK ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Listed pitcher on Zac Gallen of Arizona. This would be much, much higher if he wasn't coming off the IL but I still think we get five solid innings against a bad lineup. Believe this is a good 20 cents light.

    Pick Made: Jun 29, 2:20 am UTC
    Jun 29 2024, 7:07 pm UTC
    League
    N.Y. Yankees
    3
    @ Toronto
    9
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +678
    13-6 in Last 19 TOR ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    The Yanks busted out of their slump tonight, but Saturday pitcher Nestor Cortes, who definitely has a "Miami Vice villain who killed Sheena Easton mustache," is 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA on the road and a fair amount of Blue Jays have good splits off him. Won't be doing a Bo Bichette Under 1.5 hits here as he's 8-for-13 with two homers and a double off Cortes career. Don't know why but I just can't do Over total bases or home run props even if I consider myself a glass half-full person. Well, someone drank out of it first. Jays starter Chris Bassitt has a 2.32 ERA this month and beat the Yankees in April. Don't even need the Jays to win here.

    Pick Made: Jun 29, 2:30 am UTC
    Jun 29 2024, 6:15 pm UTC
    League
    Cincinnati
    9
    @ St. Louis
    4
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +1023
    108-68 in Last 176 MLB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The Cards' Sonny Gray is 6-2 with a 1.51 ERA at home. Gray, a former Red, has pitched 7.0 or more innings in three straight starts for the first time since 2015 with Oakland. Over 17.5 outs here is too pricy for my taste at -210. Shortstop and NL Rookie of the Year candidate Masyn Winn is back in there after getting Friday off. Reds rookie Carson Spiers has given up seven runs in 12 innings during his two starts this season, both of which came against Pittsburgh. The Cards got a couple looks at Spiers last year (still retained rookie status) as he allowed four runs in six innings against them. Cincy's Jeimer Candelario (14 HR, 39 RBI, 30 R) is out again.

    Pick Made: Jun 29, 3:56 pm UTC
    Jun 29 2024, 6:10 pm UTC
    League
    Colorado
    3
    @ Chi. White Sox
    11
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +865
    36-18-2 in Last 56 MLB O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Two of the worst offenses in the majors and it's apparently not going to be windy, so this is an interesting number. Colorado's Cal Quantrill has a 1.50 ERA in three day starts ... you know what, I'm not even going to bother. These lineups should not combine for nine-plus runs unless there is a jet stream or two truly awful starting pitchers or it's Disco Demolition Night. None appear to be the case. DraftKings currently has the only 9 on our board. I'm not sure this shouldn't be 8.

    Pick Made: Jun 29, 6:33 am UTC
    Jun 29 2024, 1:40 am UTC
    League
    Minnesota
    2
    @ Seattle
    3
    +2371
    269-163-2 in Last 434 MLB Picks
    +1023
    108-68 in Last 176 MLB ML Picks
    +1649.5
    54-24 in Last 78 MIN ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The Mariners were off today to reset their bullpen, while the Twins put up Vikings-type numbers in Arizona before traveling. And I mean Vikings numbers with Sam Darnold not Kirk Cousins, but we so often see MLB teams that blow up for double-digit runs then do squat the next game. And it's ace Logan Gilbert on the hill for Seattle on Friday. He has not allowed a run over 16 innings in his past two. I may have picked the wrong Mariner to potentially win the Cy Young in George Kirby, although he has been great of late too. Gilbert leads the AL in WHIP (0.89) and ranks T1 in quality starts (13), 3rd in opponent batting average (.196) and 7th in ERA (2.71).

    Pick Made: Jun 27, 10:24 pm UTC