Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
I am definitely losing faith in Orioles pitcher Cole Irvin and this might get rained out but no Corey Seager in the Texas lineup. The Rangers are 4-7 without him this year. A fair amount of Baltimore hitters have good splits off Texas starter Andrew Heaney (2-9, 4.17 ERA).
Simply a game the Snakes have to have to win this series -- need to take baby steps like that to turn the season around. After six strong from Zac Gallen on Saturday, the bullpen is in good shape behind today's starter Brandon Pfaadt if need be. The A's have never seen him. Pfaadt has been much better at home. Oakland's Luis Medina has a 5.63 ERA on the season.
I generally try to play Under Tigers games where I can but only like this at 9 (Bet365) rather than 8.5 as most books have. Detroit righty and former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize seems to be settling in with six straight starts allowing three earned or fewer. One of the Tigers' better hitters, Matt Vierling, is out of the lineup. LA's Tyler Anderson leads MLB pitchers with 4.0 bWAR, ranks ranks sixth in the AL with a 2.63 ERA and is seventh with a .209 opponents batting average. Over his last eight starts, Anderson has pitched to a 2.34 ERA and has allowed exactly one run in six of the eight.
Kansa City's Maikel Garcia was 0-for-4 vs. Cleveland on Saturday to drop his season average to .232 and June average to .147. So this is an awfully cheap number even if Garcia is 3-for-8 career off Cleveland's Logan Allen.
Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees but he hasn't quite looked in form yet, and Juan Soto is out of the lineup again for New York. Have to hope the good Kevin Gausman shows for the Jays. He has been wildly inconsistent but has good career numbers vs. the Yankees. Soto hits him well. So does Aaron Judge, but now he can be pitched around a bit easier.
Apologies -- accidentally had Over 3.5 earned runs originally on this play. I'll never play that most likely. The winds are blowing out some at CBP in Philadelphia but that Phillies lineup just isn't the same against a righty pitcher like Miami's Yonny Chirinos without Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Chrinos has been solid in two starts thus far and is basically only a five-inning pitcher so that should help our cause here. The SL Model has Chirinos allowing 2.8 ER.
Have to play this simply as I believe the wrong team is favored with Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez holding a 5.09 road ERA. The M's have been dominant at home, and Bryce Miller has a 1.82 ERA at T-Mobile Park.
Feel like the outs gods owe me after San Diego's Randy Vasquez on Friday. He was all but a lock to go Over his total before taking a comebacker to the hand. What can you do? Milwaukee's Tobias Myers had gone at least six in three straight until being pulled after 78 pitches last time out. As far as I know, he's healthy but there's a reason the books post these numbers.
Listed pitcher on Zac Gallen of Arizona. This would be much, much higher if he wasn't coming off the IL but I still think we get five solid innings against a bad lineup. Believe this is a good 20 cents light.
The Yanks busted out of their slump tonight, but Saturday pitcher Nestor Cortes, who definitely has a "Miami Vice villain who killed Sheena Easton mustache," is 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA on the road and a fair amount of Blue Jays have good splits off him. Won't be doing a Bo Bichette Under 1.5 hits here as he's 8-for-13 with two homers and a double off Cortes career. Don't know why but I just can't do Over total bases or home run props even if I consider myself a glass half-full person. Well, someone drank out of it first. Jays starter Chris Bassitt has a 2.32 ERA this month and beat the Yankees in April. Don't even need the Jays to win here.
The Cards' Sonny Gray is 6-2 with a 1.51 ERA at home. Gray, a former Red, has pitched 7.0 or more innings in three straight starts for the first time since 2015 with Oakland. Over 17.5 outs here is too pricy for my taste at -210. Shortstop and NL Rookie of the Year candidate Masyn Winn is back in there after getting Friday off. Reds rookie Carson Spiers has given up seven runs in 12 innings during his two starts this season, both of which came against Pittsburgh. The Cards got a couple looks at Spiers last year (still retained rookie status) as he allowed four runs in six innings against them. Cincy's Jeimer Candelario (14 HR, 39 RBI, 30 R) is out again.
Two of the worst offenses in the majors and it's apparently not going to be windy, so this is an interesting number. Colorado's Cal Quantrill has a 1.50 ERA in three day starts ... you know what, I'm not even going to bother. These lineups should not combine for nine-plus runs unless there is a jet stream or two truly awful starting pitchers or it's Disco Demolition Night. None appear to be the case. DraftKings currently has the only 9 on our board. I'm not sure this shouldn't be 8.
The Mariners were off today to reset their bullpen, while the Twins put up Vikings-type numbers in Arizona before traveling. And I mean Vikings numbers with Sam Darnold not Kirk Cousins, but we so often see MLB teams that blow up for double-digit runs then do squat the next game. And it's ace Logan Gilbert on the hill for Seattle on Friday. He has not allowed a run over 16 innings in his past two. I may have picked the wrong Mariner to potentially win the Cy Young in George Kirby, although he has been great of late too. Gilbert leads the AL in WHIP (0.89) and ranks T1 in quality starts (13), 3rd in opponent batting average (.196) and 7th in ERA (2.71).