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Brighton vs Aston Villa predictions: Premier League tips and odds
Tom McGarry’s Brighton vs Aston Villa betting tips include 11/8, 6/5 and 8/1, with goals expected at the Amex
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Our betting expert has three Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa tips for Sunday’s Premier League match at the Amex (2pm kick-off). Scroll down for the analysis behind his selections.
Brighton vs Aston Villa betting tips
- Aston Villa to win @ 11/8 with Paddy Power
- Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5 with Paddy Power
- Bet builder: Ollie Watkins to score or assist and Facundo Buonanotte to be carded @ 8/1 with Paddy Power
Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Villans to bounce back from European disappointment
The West Midlanders’ hopes of winning the Europa Conference League were dealt a big blow on Thursday night as they lost the first leg of their semi-final tie with Olympiacos 4-2 on home turf – but they can rebound by recording a victory away to the misfiring Brighton.
The Seagulls come into this contest having failed to win any of their past six top-flight games, losing the previous two against Manchester City and Bournemouth by an aggregate score of 7-0.
Roberto De Zerbi’s men also have a terrible recent record against their Sunday visitors, losing the previous five meetings, including a 6-1 thrashing in this season’s reverse fixture at Villa Park.
While this match comes at a slightly awkward time for the Villans, with the second leg of their clash against Olympiacos looming on Thursday, they are unbeaten in their past four domestic league games and have plenty riding on the match as they battle to secure a top-four finish.
Unai Emery’s side have also shown they can juggle domestic and European commitments throughout the season, as they have won seven and lost only two of their 12 Premier League matches off the back of a Europa Conference League contest.
Brighton vs Aston Villa tip 1: Aston Villa to win @ 11/8 with Paddy Power
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Goals to flow at the Amex
Thursday’s 4-2 defeat to Olympiacos was the third Villa match in a row that had gone over 3.5 goals, while four or more have been scored in 12 of the West Midlanders’ past 20 fixtures across all competitions.
Brighton were also free-scoring earlier in the season, with no team netting in more Premier League matches than the Seagulls in 2023 (39). Despite the goals drying up of late, Sunday’s hosts are still conceding at a regular rate.
De Zerbi has seen his side let in 11 across their past four matches and concede at least three in two home games on the spin – albeit they were facing the top two in the division in those contests, Arsenal and Manchester City.
Seven goals were scored in September’s reverse meeting, and this promises to be a game featuring plenty of attacking endeavour.
Brighton vs Aston Villa tip 2: Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5 with Paddy Power
Watkins can ground the Seagulls again
Villa striker Ollie Watkins, enjoying the season of his life, took his goal tally to 27 with his midweek strike against Olympiacos.
The England international is not just scoring but also creating, with 12 assists over the course of the campaign. His total of 31 goal contributions is more than any other player in the Premier League this season.
Throw into the mix that Watkins loves facing Brighton – he has scored six goals in his past four appearances against the Seagulls, including a hat-trick in September’s 6-1 win – and it would appear shrewd to back the 28-year-old to score or assist on Sunday as part of any bet builder.
It could also be worth considering backing young Albion winger Facundo Buonanotte to be booked. While not an obvious choice at first glance, the Argentine teenager is no stranger to getting booked.
Buonanotte has been yellow-carded seven times in just 14 league starts this season, more than any other Brighton player. Since joining the Seagulls from Rosario Central in January 2023 he has received nine Premier League cautions, more than double the number of top-flight goals he has scored over the same period.
Brighton vs Aston Villa tip 3: Bet builder: Ollie Watkins to score or assist and Facundo Buonanotte to be carded @ 8/1 with Paddy Power
Brighton vs Aston Villa odds
Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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